*OFFICIAL* AotC at the Box Office Thread

Discussion in 'Attack of the Clones' started by w_sasso_mdtv, May 17, 2002.

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  1. denseyjedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 5, 2002
    star 4
    Why Spiderman is doing huge in the box office?
    Because is a kid film with a PG-13 rating, that means that parents will have to go with their kids everytime they want to see this movie. So in fact if a child want to see it again is multiplie at least by three.
  2. Bowen Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Sep 6, 1999
    star 4
    I don't think too many people here have any idea what they are talking about, no offense.

    Did you follow TPM? Then why are you comparing AOTC to Spider-Man? You need not do that. Spider-Man is falling much faster than TPM did, or than AOTC will.

    Look, ok:

    AOTC: $30.1 million opening day
    TPM: $28.5 million opening day

    Friday..

    TPM: $18.5 million
    AOTC: $24.6 million

    Do you think TPM's box office gross was disappointing Friday? Of course it wasn't! So why are you complaining about a number 33% higher?! Do any of you follow the box office or are you just acting like you are experts on a subject about which you know nothing. Just curious.

    AOTC is not on course for $75 million this weekend, either, I'm not sure where you got that impression. It's on course for about $85 million. With TPM, Friday represented 28% of the opening weekend total, NOT 1/3. Get it? So at that rate, actually, AOTC would clear $87 million this weekend, not including Thursday, which then brings it to nearly $118 million.

    Now TPM had an opening of $64.8 million in its three day weekend. If AOTC has as good of staying power as TPM, which is quite possible because probably most of us believe word of mouth is better for AOTC than for TPM, then AOTC would make ALMOST as much as Titanic. I mean seriously, do the math for yourselves if you don't believe me. $87 million opening * 6.5 = $565.5 million.

    6.5 is how many times more TPM made than its opening. $64.8M * 6.5 = $421.1, while TPM actually made $431.1, so it made a bit more than 6.5 times its opening weekend gross!

    So WHY on earth are you people looking at Spider-Man's box office gross from its first Friday and comparing that? Spider-Man opened on a Friday, first of all, second it had 1,500 more screens and 500 more theaters, and third ticket prices for a PG-13 film are higher than for a PG one because PG movies have a great number of discount, children admissions.

    The competition is not for which film can make the most the quickest, that's just lame, the competition is to see which movie ends up grossing more over the course of its entire box office run.

    Even if AOTC "only" made 5 times its opening gross, it would easily clear $400 million and that would be sufficient to beat Spider-Man.

    TPM fell between 20 and 30% each weekend, but almost never over 30%, while Spider-Man fell 38% last weekend and is looking to fall in the range of 45% this weekend. That's not TPM-like staying power, nor will it beat TPM.

    I just think many of you need to study the box office more before acting disappointed over amazing numbers. I'm a box office analyst and tracker myself and I have ShowBizData.com and Variety full access, i.e. I pay to get member access, and I know what I'm talking about here! Even I was impressed with the Friday gross because it definitely bodes well for the future.

    So long as the movie holds up well during the week and makes about $10 million per weekday, actually a bit more, then it could be solidly on track to crack $500 million even, which far from being a disappointment, would in fact be one of the two most incredible grosses ever.

    TPM made $35 million during its four weekdays in 1999, but I see AOTC being able to pull about $44 million. I think it can do $13 million Monday (TPM made $10.9, Spider-Man $11.0), $11 million Tuesday, $10 million Wednesday, and almost $10 million Thursday. I actually think my estimates are low, personally. I would go out on a limb and say $14M Monday, $13M Tuesday, $12M Wednesday, and about $11.5M million Thursday.

    Just watch and see, be patient. This film is going to do wonderful.
  3. Dagobah_Dude Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Nov 9, 2001
    star 3
    Bowen, I think you're absolutely correct. AOTC made 55 million dollars between Thursday and Friday, and that was with gigantic competition from another blockbuster film(Spidey). TPM had no competition on it's opening weekend, and it made just slightly more than those numbers between Wednesday and Friday, a whole extra day. I don't see how anyone can be disappointed with these numbers, it's incredible for a film that has opened on far less screens than any other blockbuster in a while.
  4. denseyjedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 5, 2002
    star 4
    I agree and I think that unlike TPM, AOTC bigger day will not be its opening but instead Saturday and even Sunday will come close.
  5. Kelyne Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 3
    This is probably the most intelligent write up and Aotc possible box office performance and comaprisons with Spiderman and TPM's performance. article
  6. vansmak Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Mar 18, 1999
    star 1
    I disagree that 25 million was dissapointing. First, boxoffice guru, predicted 85 million, I predicted 86 million, those seem right on target.

    Second, people are saying that Spider-Man did pretty well Friday with AOTC out. That's pretty true. But, the reverse is true well, TPM had no competition it's first weekend out. AOTC's competition is a top 5 movie of all time still going strong...

    Also, as with TPM, Thursday had at least 1, and a lot of times 2 extra showings then friday...I know the theater i went to had the midnight show, plus one following it, at 3...A lot of theaters did too. So, the dropoff isn't as bad, because of those extra showings opening day.

    I guess it could look weird that a Friday is less than a Thursday, but same thing happened for TPM, and by a much bigger margin.

    -smak-
  7. meteor_phoenix Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    May 18, 2002
    Bowen, You made very good points. However, there are some minor issues:

    1. It is not very fair to compare TPM's friday box office with ATOC's. TPM made another 12 million on Thursday.

    2. Even spider man dropped 38% from its opening in the second weekend, it is still doing extremly well due to its gigantic opening.

    3. I don't agree the way you calculate TPM's staying power. Basically you use TPM's opening weekend as the denominator.
    So you get: 430m total / 64.8m opening weekend = 6.6
    But I would rather consider the whole opening week as the denominator.
    430m /;1.05 = 4.1
    Then ATOC should make (30+85)*4.1 = 471.5

    ATOC is a much better movie than TPM; However, it have and will face much tougher competitions in the summer season. Overall, I think ATOC will do better than spidey, and a little shy of TPM.



  8. DarthTomas Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 31, 2002
    star 1
    The #1 differnce between TPM and AOTC will be good word-of-mouth for AOTC. EVERYONE will hear about Yoda cleaning house when they go to work Monday.

    AOTC is ten times more exciting and well done than TPM, which, to most people, must have seemed like a major snooze fest by way of comparison.

    Have some faith. AOTC will hit 500+ million domestically and a cool bil worldwide.

  9. meteor_phoenix Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    May 18, 2002
    Good word of mouth in this forum, sure; Else where, hard to say.
    critics are already very bad: rottentomato rating is only 55%;
    Yahoo rating is ok at 4.0/5, but less than spidey's 4.2;
    IMDB rating is good at 8.2/10, still lower than spidey's 8.3.

    500m+ is a little optimistic.
  10. DarthTomas Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Mar 31, 2002
    star 1
    That's because stupid LOTR trolls are trying to sink AOTC, in my opinion. Want evidence? Go look at all the anti-Star Wars trolls on AICN.
  11. vpt_ Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Apr 25, 2002
    star 1
    i think AOTC has a chance of doing this. as long as fans keep watching it like it was the first time and at expensive theatres. [face_mischief]

    maybe thats why it didnt open on a weekend, so it doesnt have to compete for the record.

    -bye.
  12. meteor_phoenix Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    May 18, 2002
    I think our Star War fans outnumber LOTR fans by 10 times. Why can't we bump up the ratings?
  13. Knightstalker- Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Aug 7, 2001
    star 3
    How can anyone honestly say that 25 million in one day is disappointing, considering this movie opened with nearly 32 million? Christ, I'm so sick of this Star Wars vs Spider-man BS!
  14. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
    Ok, I'm here now.

    All is right with the world.

    :D

    I shoudl have found this thread last week to plug my Opening Weekend Box Office contest.

    Deadline's past now.



  15. Knightstalker- Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Aug 7, 2001
    star 3
    Well, looks like its on track to take 85 million this weekend, giving it about 115-120 million in 4 days...not too shabby at all.
  16. Darth23 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 14, 1999
    star 4
  17. Darth_Dragonspell Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    Apr 24, 2002
    I know for a fact that some people are going to the theatre to see AOTC, seeing its full and going to see Spiderman instead. To the average moviegoer its a good substitute when you've made the trip to the theatre, especially with the kids on the weekend. So,Spidey up and AOTC down, but in the long run both win.
  18. Darth Euro Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 4
    I went to see AOTC yesterday in a large multiplex (orlando, FL), but I was surprised at the lack of a line. And this was at 7pm. The show was sold out, but I came an hour early (just in case), walked in and sat down. Only 20 or so people were there. Eventually the room filled up, but I noted that there was a sizable line for Spiderman across the hallway.

    Oh, BTW, I was impressed by AOTC.
  19. DarthHutt Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 2, 2000
    star 5
    As I was leaving the theater yesterday, I saw two people try to get AOTC tix for sold out shows, and asked for S-M tix instead.

    This is what happens when you show SW movies on so many fewer screens than other blockbusters.
  20. SithWarrior2000 Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Nov 19, 2001
    star 1
    Do we have any actual estimates for Saturday or weekend as a whole besides that Mojo report?
  21. Darth Euro Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 4
    Well, the official 3-day estimates are in, from ACNielsen:

    1 STAR WARS: EP.II-ATTACK CLONES 86.15 1 116.3
    2 SPIDER-MAN 46.00 3 286.5
    3 UNFAITHFUL 10.32 2 29.8
    4 ABOUT A BOY 8.40 1 8.4
    5 THE NEW GUY 6.50 2 17.3
    6 CHANGING LANES 3.10 6 61.6
    7 THE SCORPION KING 2.73 5 85.0
    8 THE ROOKIE 1.97 8 70.8
    9 MURDER BY NUMBERS 1.72 5 30.0
    10 MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 1.15 5 5.7

    BTW, here are the Saturday numbers/estimates:
    1 STAR WARS: EPISODE II - ATTACK OF THE CLONES 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,161 32,100,500 10,155 86,906,000
    2 SPIDER-MAN SONY 3,615 19,687,500 5,446 271,870,000


  22. meteor_phoenix Jedi Padawan

    Member Since:
    May 18, 2002
    Yes, the early estimate from box office mojo is 86.2m, which is very good.

    However, spider man was not crushed by the clones. It pocketed a decent $46,000,000, only 36% drop from last weekend.
  23. Darth Euro Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 4
    Wow... If the $46 million estimate proves to be accurate, Spiderman's drop was only 36% from last weekend. Amazing. AOTC might not become the top grossing movie of the year after all. The next two weekends will be telling, though...
  24. admiral jimmy Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 14, 1999
    star 4
    But finally Spiderman was beaten by AOTC !!!! AOTC has made more money in it´s first week....and with Memorial day coming next week.
    BTW: is tomorrow a holiday in the US???

    EDIT:did someone notice how Spiderman´s biggest day is always Saturday???
  25. Darth Euro Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 25, 1999
    star 4
    Admiral Jimmy ... So? Saturday is the top grossing day for practically every movie.

    Incuding TPM - Just look at the box office archives. Saturday was the biggest day every week.
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