Official U.S. Elections Countdown thread! (Now discussing 2004 elections)

The Democratic party should go ahead and throw the bone to Mondale (again). I think Gore is the smartest one of them all to run away from the 04 election. I predict 1984 all over again.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30858-2003Mar2.html

-Check out this article, about the Bush reelection team. They don't expect any landslide 84 style victory.

I'll post the article too, to make it easier, but later, I gotta go!

-Real quick, one thing mentioned in the article is how Reagan was able to win such a landslide victory by winning over boths sides, that even many Democrats were voting for Reagan. Likewise, many (not as many as Reagan) Republicans voted for Clinton, as did many centrist/moderates, which helped Clinton win his certain victory in 96.

There is no way any Democrat is going to vote for Bush, and the centrists are still a tossup.

 

There is no way any Democrat is going to vote for Bush

And you have proof of this how?

 

Two things of note.

First off, understand that in the South, people are still slowly coming around towards being Republicans. Registered Democrat voters outnumber Republicans in many Southern states that Bush carried easily. So there are going to be a sizable number of Southern Democrats that will vote for Bush over ANY of the Democrat nominee's, including and especially John Edwards.

Secondly, Reagan coasted to two landslide victory's. Even in CLinton's "landslide" victory, he only carried 48 percent of the vote....an improvement of just 6 points compared to the whopping 42 percent margin that put him in the White House to begin with.....

Lib's love to forget Ross Perot's role in Clinton's 92 victory.....

 

Hello all.

I've have a request to close this thread in favor of a new one that's focused on the 2004 races (with all the races having been marked and the competition noted).

Any thoughts on that?

 

I am all for it, I guess, if it is a better thread and gets more people in.

 

I kind of like having a thread that's just random politics. Lately this thread has shifted back and forth from judicial nominees and the strategery of confirmation to Vegas style odds-making of state elections.

 

I posted a new thread on the 2004 races specifically, and it got closed.

Is there anything specific that you want to have a new thread on - such as the candidates themselves? Or on fundraising? Or specifically the Presidential election?

There are a million topics and issues that go into the 2004 election, including judical nominees, the War on Terror, the economy, etc.

 

Lib's love to forget Ross Perot's role in Clinton's 92 victory.....

Let's not forget Nader's role in Bush's '00 victory.

Conserv's love to forget that one .

I'm sure Bush will win in '04, but it will be far from a landslide.

Even with the South, Bush almost lost. The south does not automatically guarantee the White House.

Peace,

V-03

 

DM, was there anything about this thread that made you feel as though it didn't cover enough or what you wanted?

 

Well, as the originator of this thread, I say KEEP IT ALIVE! It's supposed to be a countdown thread too, and even our talk of judiciary nominations has a lot to do with election talk.

And Triple B, I haven't forgotten about Clinton's '92 election, but it's nothing compared to the '00 election, if you want to talk about the election being some sort of lucky tossup. Bush I could have won the election even with Perot in the race, he lost the popular/electoral vote fair and square. I was specifically talking about how Reagan and Clinton were able to win second terms largely because they appealed to moderate Democrats AND Republican voters.

Although perhaps the southern democrats who might as well be Republicans and have been turning Republican (which, sadly, seems to have been sparked by the Democrats embracing of the Civil Rights legislation, and the Republican's covert catering to southern prejudice, although if there are other reasons, enlighten me) may indeed vote for Bush, it's doubtful that any sizeable portion of the Democratic voting public would vote for Bush.

 

Bush's '04 Campaign Quietly Being Planned Advisers See Raising Up to $250 Million

By Mike Allen and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, March 3, 2003; Page A01

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President Bush has postponed his reelection campaign until after a war with Iraq, but White House and Republican Party strategists have begun planning for a contest in which they envision raising as much as $250 million to wage a battle designed to break the political stalemate of the 1990s and make the GOP the country's majority party.

Bush has told advisers that he will neither discuss with them nor authorize them to begin any formal activity for a 2004 campaign until the confrontation with Iraq has been resolved. But he has given them his blessing to begin discussions and planning for such a campaign.

"We've got a green light to think about it, plan about it, but a red light on doing anything," said one of the advisers. He said the president has told his team, in essence, "Go figure it out, get ready to talk to me about it, but not now."

Fewer than 10 people, under the direction of White House senior adviser Karl Rove, architect of the party's 2002 midterm victories, are mapping the closely held strategy. In addition, about two dozen Republicans have agreed to recruit new members for Bush's enormous fundraising network, according to participants.

The discussions include campaign personnel assignments, the structure of media and polling operations, preliminary assessments of an electoral map strategy and, with help from the Republican National Committee, intensive opposition research on the large field of Democratic presidential candidates.

One early decision was to increase the price of admission for the Pioneers, Bush's premier fundraisers who, in 2000, raised $100,000 each for the campaign. The nation's new campaign finance law doubles the ceiling for individual contributions in the primary season, to $2,000. In light of that, the new threshold for Pioneers -- all of whom get prestige and bragging rights, while a few get administration appointments -- will grow to $200,000 or possibly $250,000.

Some Bush strategists have discussed using direct mail to raise a substantial amount of money from big donors, and the campaign would start with a list of about 69,000 individuals who contributed the maximum to Bush in 2000. That approach would not mean eliminating all fundraising galas featuring the president -- which some longtime donors find to be old hat -- but would be a low-key way to raise money in large chunks.

"Frankly, I think many big donors would favor that," said a Republican strategist close to the White House.

In 2000, the Bush campaign broke all previous records by raising about $100 million. GOP strategists say Bush advisers are talking about raising $200 million to $225 million, but they said the upper limit might hit $250 million. Asked whether there was a dollar amount beyond which it would appear unseemly for the campaign to keep raising money, one Bush adviser said, "I guess you could make that case. I'm not certain what that point is." He added that he doubted the reelection committee could raise that much, in any case.

This money would be spent for campaign activities in 2003 until the Republican National Convention in August 2004. The nominees of both parties receive public funds for the general election.

Some campaign planners had discussed launching fundraising efforts this month, which was when Bush began raising money in 1999. But officials decided it would appear unseemly to start raising money when U.S. troops might be at war in the Persian Gulf. Similar concerns prompted the White House to cancel Bush's planned trips to New Hampshire and Iowa shortly after his State of the Union address in January.

The delays in assembling the reelection campaign's mechanical pieces have caused some frustration among GOP strategists, but White House officials doubt the late start will prove a genuine handicap. Bu

 

Great article.

I don't see the divide ending anytime soon. The democrats have been battered, bruised, and embarassed. The gloves are off, and this will be a brutal, hard-fought campaign.

I wish Mr. Bush and the GOP luck, but unless Bush can govern from the center (something he has shown a surprising inability to do), it's gonna be tougher for him than he thinks.

Oh man .

Peace,

V-03