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JCC OFFICIAL - US Elections pre-primary thread

Discussion in 'Community' started by GrandAdmiralJello , Aug 15, 2011.

  1. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Aug 16, 2002
    That's an upset?
     
  2. Game3525

    Game3525 Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jun 25, 2008
    Frothy wins.....but he really needs to get Newt's fat ass out of the race if he really wants to compete with Romney.
     
  3. lexu

    lexu Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    May 28, 2002
    Crazy religious states nominate crazy religious zealot. Who saw that coming.
     
  4. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    Santorum was polling 3rd place in both states, and had less than a 10% chance of winning each state. Santorum didn't seem to think he'd win either, since he gave his speech in Louisiana. Both Romney and Gingrich were writing him off.

    This might also lead to Gingrich dropping out, since he said he "must win" both. And if that happens, Santorum will be in a very good position.

    Romney has only won 4 states with 50% or more:
    *Massachusetts (where he was governor)
    *Virginia (where it was only him and Paul)
    *Nevada (Mormon population)
    *Idaho (Mormon population)
     
  5. Yodaminch

    Yodaminch Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 6, 2002
    Mitt came in third in both states eh? [face_thinking]

    Were both open primaries or just one?
     
  6. Lowbacca_1977

    Lowbacca_1977 Jedi Master star 6

    Registered:
    Jun 28, 2006
    Not really an upset. I mean, Santorum wasn't polling the best, but I think that puts more question on the polling than anything else. A speech in Louisiana seems to be setting up for that state next. In the polls, he wasn't that far behind. The polls were off by something like 5%, and they're routinely around that inaccurate in Alabama and Mississippi.

    I would have been more surprised had either Romney or Gingrich won both states. Also keep in mind that Santorum has only 1 50% win. 538 recently looked at how the vote would go when you remove Santorum (well, a week ago or so, before Kansas) and it looked something like 2/3rds to Santorum and 1/4th to Romney. In that, he still had Romney winning in delegates and total votes.

    There's also been some states where Romney has gotten more votes than Santorum and Gingrich combined. Washington, Arizona, Vermont, and Wyoming. Plus, if you split up Gingrich's votes based on what some polls have indicated, Michigan would probably still be a Romney win. Gingrich being gone would help Santorum somewhat, but not enough.
     
  7. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    Santorum's two wins was the least likely scenario, but it's also the one that could have the biggest impact on the race (forcing Newt to drop out) which is why I think tonight's results were significant.

    Also, here's a map of the United States that shows which counties Romney has a majority in (blue) and which counties he has a minority in (red) ...

    [image=http://www.whitdem.org/multimedia/RomneyMajority.png]
     
  8. Rogue_Ten

    Rogue_Ten Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2002
    g-rich i love you dawg but its time to hang it up

    its hard to say if he will tho. since his experience in iowa he seems to have gone from typical demogogue opportunist to some sort of golem animated purely by hatred for mitt romney. if someone can convince him its more damaging to romney to drop out and pledge delegates to santorum he might do that but then again maybe he's too much of an egomaniac and he'll keep flailing around until the convention
     
  9. Kiki-Gonn

    Kiki-Gonn Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Feb 26, 2001
    Newt says he 's staying in and as long as his sugar daddy keeps writing checks, why not?
    He can still be a player at the convention. As one show pointed out, he could even be the king maker there.

    God, he would LOVE to see Romney come crawling to him for help.
     
  10. GrandAdmiralJello

    GrandAdmiralJello Comms Admin ❉ Moderator Communitatis Litterarumque star 10 Staff Member Administrator

    Registered:
    Nov 28, 2000
    The only chance the GOP has of winning at this point is if they nominate Obama.
     
  11. Kiki-Gonn

    Kiki-Gonn Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Feb 26, 2001
    I certainly don't get it but the head to head polls still show Romney having a good chance to win it.
     
  12. Yodaminch

    Yodaminch Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 6, 2002
    That depends on two unknowns:

    1) Romney's VP choice
    2) Romney's performance against Obama in debates.


    If Romney picks a bad VP choice, those numbers will shift toward Obama. If Romney gets taken down in debates by Obama, those numbers will definitely shift. Right now, despite a lot of gaffes and mistakes, these are mostly local paper issues and political ticker stuff. Once he goes national, everything goes under the microscope.

    And I suspect we'll see a repeat of Palin where Romney's campaign is under intense scrutiny. I also suspect less scrutiny for the president because he's mostly going to be focused on running the country and he's already been through the meat grinder once before. Since it is just him and Joe again, the burden of proof falls entirely on Romney. The good news for him of course is that if he can make the right case, he gets the spotlight while the president still has to juggle re-election and doing his job.
     
  13. lexu

    lexu Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    May 28, 2002
    Apparently there's been some talk of Santorum and Gingrich joining forces, like some kind of disturbingly hilarious idealogical uber-conservative beast. They could win the nomination just by convincing the dumb states that Jesus would vote for them (and promising to deport all the dirty messicans and unwed mothers).
     
  14. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    I've actually heard talk of Gingrich picking Perry as his VP.

    Romney was asked if he'd consider Santorum for VP, and Romney said that Santorum was too liberal for him.




    If Romney doesn't get 1144 delegates, then most of his own delegates would be "unbound" on the second round of voting and be able to nominate anyone. Santorum and Gingrich's strategy is to deny Romney the 1144 delegates he needs to be nominated on the first round of voting, and then persuade the unbound Romney delegates to vote for one of them.

    I've also heard that Ron Paul is hijacking the delegate process, and may somehow get more delegates than Romney in states like Nevada. How? I have no idea. Probably taking advantage of a lot of obscure, antiquated rules.
     
  15. VadersLaMent

    VadersLaMent Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Apr 3, 2002
    Just saw the commercial where various women quote the GOP candidates on topics ranging from conrtaception to Santorum's view on the baby from a rape being a gift from God. Has any reporter directed this at Santorum?
     
  16. Kiki-Gonn

    Kiki-Gonn Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Feb 26, 2001
    3) By far the most important... state of the economy.
     
  17. Yodaminch

    Yodaminch Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Mar 6, 2002
    Yes. But I'd argue if Romney fails 1 and 2 on the level McCain/Palin did, Obama will STILL have a very good shot even if the economy declines and gas is over $5. It'll be more razor thin compared to the last election, but it will still be possible.

    However, if Romney capitalizes on 1 and 2 and the economy tanks, Obama will be in serious trouble.
     
  18. Terr_Mys

    Terr_Mys Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    From the same map maker: a periodically updated map showing plurality by county.

    [image=http://www.whitdem.org/multimedia/2012GOPPrimaryResultsByCountySolid.png]

    I guess the key battlegrounds at this point are Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Maybe New Mexico?
     
  19. Lowbacca_1977

    Lowbacca_1977 Jedi Master star 6

    Registered:
    Jun 28, 2006
    I'll be shocked of Pennsylvania becomes competitive.
     
  20. Terr_Mys

    Terr_Mys Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    You're probably right, but people said the same thing about Romney's home state. And a lot can change between now and April 24th.

    If it weren't Santorum's home state, I think it would be fairly safe for Romney. The demographics are what make it potentially competitive. I think we pretty much already know who's going to win every other state.
     
  21. Boba_Fett_2001

    Boba_Fett_2001 Force Ghost star 8

    Registered:
    Dec 11, 2000
    Please don't take this the wrong way, but do you like discussing elections because it gives you a reason to look at maps all the time? :p
     
  22. Terr_Mys

    Terr_Mys Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    I am BEYOND offended Jazib [face_plain]

    I love geography - my affection for maps flows naturally from that obsession. National politics are an inherently geographic phenomenon, and I find the relationship between geography and culture fascinating.

    Of course, I'm not apolitical or anything. I'm hoping that Santorum will win the primary because I know he has no chance of winning the general election. :) And that will hopefully, maybe, start a conversation about the GOP possibly moving away from the fringes of the right.
     
  23. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    [link=http://news.yahoo.com/santorum-doesnt-seem-mind-offending-puerto-rico-210301975.html]Santorum: Puerto Ricans shouldn't speak Spanish, they should speak English! Make English the official language of Puerto Rico![/link]

    But English already is one of the official languages of Puerto Rico, along with Spanish. :confused: So does Santorum just hate people who speak Spanish as their primary language? He doesn't want them to speak English in their homes or something?
     
  24. anakinfansince1983

    anakinfansince1983 Nightsister of Four Realms star 9 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Mar 4, 2011
    Supposedly a reporter asked him about contraception and he said "Those are just my personal beliefs! Of course I would never try to legislate them!"

    I'd rather not take my chances, thanks.
     
  25. Kiki-Gonn

    Kiki-Gonn Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Feb 26, 2001
    Oh please, please let him somehow win the nomination.