Perpetual Futility: The Seattle Mariners Fanclub

Another year, another missed shot at the playoffs.

2008 brings a revamped starting rotation to Seattle. Gone from the starting five are Jeff "Train Wreck" Weaver and Horacio "7.50 ERA FTL" Ramirez. In are Carlos Silva and Erik "We Traded the Farm for You" Bedard.

Certainly this means that the Seattle Mariners are playoff bound this season, right?

Wrong.

Here's your everyday starting lineup for your 2008 Seattle Mariners (I like to call this the AL version of the San Francisco Giants)

CF - Ichiro!
DH - Jose "Turbo" Vidro
LF - Raul "Flailing Corpse" Ibanez
3B - Adrian "King Awesome" Beltre
1B - Richie "Black Hole" Sexson
RF - Brad "Flailing Corpse 2.0" Wilkerson
C - Kenji "Has Back Spasms" Johjima
2B - Jose "Weak Pop to Right" Lopez
SS - Yuniesky "Walks are for Losers" Betancourt

Save for Ichiro and Beltre, that isn't exactly a fear-inducing lineup, is it?

Starting Rotation
LHP Erik "Rhymes with Gaydar" Bedard
RHP "King" Felix Hernandez
RHP Carlos "We paid 40 million for this!?" Silva
LHP Jarod "Deeeeep Flyball" Washburn
RHP Miguel "I play saxophone" Batista

Pretty good rotation, one of the better ones in the AL.

Bullpen

Long Relief - RHP R.A. Dickey
Middle Relief - RHP Sean Green
Middle Relief - LHP Horacio Ramirez
LH Setup - Erik "Potatoes" O'Flaherty
RH Setup - Brandon "I should be at AAA" Morrow
Closer - RHP JJ "WOOOOOOOO!" Putz

Bench

Util - Willie #*$&ing Bloomquist
Util - Miguel "Willie 2.0" Cairo
OF - Mike Morse
C - Jamie Burke
25th player TBD

So there's your 2008 Seattle Mariners. Other than a formidable rotation, this is a team destined to finish second in the AL West. Again. And miss out on the wildcard. Again.

Based on Pythag, ZiPS, Marcels, CHONE, and James, I'm going to make this my prediction for the season record:

83-79
Second in the AL West
Misses Wild Card by ten games.

[image=http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y37/ThundaPC/Felix_Doh.jpg]

Of course, that isn't to say my prediction is flawless. If the Seattle Mariners manage to upset the California Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim that Resides in Orange County, then I will be absolutely ecstatic. I don't believe, however, that they have what it takes to leapfrog past LAA, DET, CLE, NYY, and BOS. As far as roster building goes, all of those clubs seem to have an edge on Seattle.

Unless Seattle can do something with it's offense and defense, there won't be a playoff game in Seattle this October. So, yes, I'll go on record and say it:

The Erik Bedard trade was a terrible move.

Here's to 2008, may the Mariners prove me wrong!

-Chris Antonetti for GM in 2009-

 

I take exception to that. At least you have one truly great hitter in Ichiro. The same cannot be said of the Giants.

 

Yeah, but you guys don't have Richie Sexson, Captain of the SS Failboat.

Seriously, he's "Suck" to the 25th Degree.

 

No, I guess not, but we do have Barry Zito. That's got to count for something. I mean, he's "Suck" to the 37th Degree (at least, that's his ERA in spring training so far).

Of the American League teams, however, I do tend to follow Seattle more than others, particularly because of Ichiro. I was also quite a fan of Bret Boone in the early 2000s.

 

I'm a Brewer fan and live in Portland so I get to see the Mariners a couple of times a year and see them on TV frequently. I think they have a ligit shot at winning the division. I wouldn't get too down on the team yet when the season hasn't even started. Ichiro is awesome and they do have 2 ligit starting pitchers that could go over 20 wins. What am I saying? Just don't sell them short yet. Get behind them and think positive.

 

This is an 88-win TOPS team. Two legit starting pitchers + Ichiro are no where near enough to vault this team past the five better clubs in the AL. This team has no offense and one of the worst defenses in the AL.

Just about every statistical analysis source (James, Marcels, CHONE, ZiPS et all) projects the Mariners to finish slightly above .500. Heck, some of them have the Mariners finishing below 81 wins. This team just isn't that good.

 

Hey, Ichiro finally got a hit today, against the Giants (of course). I guess we can say that our teams are equally sucky, according to the score (3-3)

 

I'm starting to think Ichiro was prolonging that hitless streak to screw with us.

 

ichiro's always had a different approach to spring training than most players. he hits groundballs to the shortstop on purpose just to practice his bat control.

anyway, let's go m's!

 

Seattle is currently standing pretty at 8-8, but have some serious problems.

Closer JJ Putz is on the DL right now, throwing the bullpen into chaos. LHP Erik O'Flahrety has not lived up to the standard George Sherrill set (in fairness, EOF has been seriously hurt by his defense this season). Called up is the clearly washed-up Arthur Rhodes to take his place.

The offense has been hit or miss this season. Mostly miss. DH Jose Vidro and RF Brad Wilkerson are failing to produce. Vidro needs to be released or ride pine the rest of the season, allowing Ibanez to move into the DH role and out of the field. LF needs to be manned by someone who can actually cover ground (Jeremey Reed I'm looking at you).

The defense has been atrocious. Ichiro's legs are going to fall off by June because he has to cover so much ground by himself. Richie Sexson is a disaster at 1B.

Worst of all? Erik Bedard. On the DL with hip inflammation, and rumor is that he has a partially torn ligament in his hip that may require surgery. I'm sure no one saw an injury coming, right?

My revised prediction for the final standings: 79-83

 

i see years of mariners fandom have made you a "glass is half empty kind of guy", lol. supposedly putz is supposed to be back soon, so that should go a long way towards fixing the bullpen. felix has been dominating and silva has been a pleasant suprise. ibanez has been carrying the team offensively but beltre, johjima, and even sexson have been showing signs at the plate. and you know ichiro will heat up eventually.

but yeah, their off-season moves sure aren't looking so good now. wilkerson is horrible and their season could very well rest on how serious this injury to bedard turns out to be.

 

Beltre has been fine, Johjima is hitting better.

Sexson should be jettisoned into space at the first given opportunity. Still too small a sample size for me to render a verdict on Wilkerson, but Vidro should not be a DH, period.

The Bedard trade: still bad.

 

well yeah, it's looking worse than ever right now. but beating the a's in oakland is always nice and they got another strong outing from silva, the one off-season pickup that's actually producing. overall i think they look pretty good, i'm not too worried but not too impressed either. it does stink that two of their biggest offensive holes are in two of the traditionally strongest offensive positions. wish they'd make that griffey trade that everyone keeps talking about.

 

See the Mariners are doing OK. Took a couple of games vs A's.

 

Silva was always solid for the Twins as well, just no run support over the years. I still don't know if he's worth 12 million per year, even in baseball terms.

 

Silva most certainly is -not- worth 12 million a year. He's a groundball pitcher that can be found in minor-league systems all across baseball.

See: replacement level.

You don't give replacement level players 48 million.

 

Well Silva has a career mark of 58-46, 4.27 ERA, and as I mentioned he had zero run support with Minnesota or his win total would be better. He's a ground ball, control pitcher for sure but if these guys were easy to find in the minors I think everyone would have them.

His career numbers are actually very similar to Eric Bedard's, yet Bedard is considered a front line starter? I do think Seattle overpayed for Silva, and probably gave up too much to secure Bedard. That said Silva is certainly delivering for your Mariners this season, thus far.

 

on the bright side of things, putz is back and he looked very good tonight.

 

ERA and wins are the two single worst pitching metrics ever. This guide shows a number of far superior methods to evaluating pitchers.

Silva is a pitcher who doesn't miss bats and relies on hitters putting the ball on the ground. So far this season, still not missing the bats, but he's not keeping the ball on the ground either. The percent of flyballs he has allowed so far this season has absolutely ballooned. His velocity is mediocre, and even worse, he hasn't shown this season he can get lefties out as this .327/.365/.531 line illustrates. All signs point to Silva crashing back to Earth, because they way he's pitching right now is not conducive to long-term success.

As for who I think is a better pitcher than Silva? LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith. Hyphen has the ability to get both lefthanders and righthanders out, misses bats, and keeps the ball in the park. What's better? He's making league minimum.

 

As it stands now, the Mariners are 5 1/2 games out of first and may be falling into last place in the AL West and all of the American League today.

This club has proved one very important thing: The notion that pitching wins championships is a myth.

The Mariners are in pace to score 680 runs this season, right in line with what most statistical analysts were predicting before the start of the season.

Fire Bill Bavasi, hire Chris Antonetti now.

 

the offense is pathetic. looks like it will be another long year.

 

I hate to say it, but I brought up my concerns with the offense early on.

This team is regressing to what Pythag expected them to do last season. It's not a far stretch to think they could potentially lose 80 or more games this season.

That said, here are my proposals

1) Fire John MacLaren and Bill Bavasi - Both have been comically inept in their time in Seattle. Bavasi has spearheaded some of the worst FA signings and trades in franchise history, and Mac has no idea how to run an ML franchise.

2) Hire a warm-body manager and Chris Antonetti - Anyone is better than Mac at this point. If that means Perlozzo or Riggleman take over, fine. Antonetti is a product of the Cleveland front office and is a brilliant player evaluator. He's born out of the Billy Bean/Paul Depodesta mold of general managers. Combine his evaluation prowess with Seattle's payroll and this team can be a competitor within a season.

3) Trade Richie Sexson, Miguel Cairo, and Jose Vidro for young players with a pulse - Dead weight. If you have to eat part or all of their contracts, do it. The minor league system is depleted and needs to be restocked.

4) Trade Raul Ibanez, Jarod Washburn, Cha Seung Baek, and Kenji Johjima for prospects - Get what you can. At the trade deadline, Raul might fetch a high-tier prospect for a team still in the playoff hunt. Washburn might be able to thrive in the NL, see if you can get something for him there. Baek might fetch a decent prospect for a team that needs a 5th starter.

5) Promote Jeremey Reed, Ryan Fierebend, RA Dickey - Insert Fierebend into Washburn's rotation slot, use RA Dickey in long relief. Reed becomes the every-day LF in place of Ibanez

6) Make Jeff Clement the starting catcher - Stop wasting his value at DH. Don't even consider making him a first baseman.

7) Resign Adrian Beltre to a 3-4 year extension - Beltre has been the one good Bavasi signing. He's currently top-5 in the league in terms of On-Base plus Slugging and is leading the league in plays made out of zone (OOZ rating).

8) Resign Erik Bedard to a 3-4 year extension. If no extension is possible, trade him by March '09 - If we can keep Erik long term, great. If not, trade him and get some top-tier prospects

9) At all costs, sign Mark Teixeira - This club needs offensive help, and Teixeira will be the biggest improvement available during the 2009 offseason.

10) Lock up Felix Hernandez long term - Duh.

11) Sign Ken Griffey Jr - DH only. His zone rating is terrible now. Offer no more than 6 mil per season, 2 years max. Anything more and forget it.

12) Shore up bullpen - Free agency if possible. Do not trade. The bullpen is the easiest part of a team to build.

 

This team has five games to turn things around or the season is over.

They must go at least 4-1 the rest of this homestand, and must play .608 baseball the rest of the way. .608 baseball is damn hard to do, anything more is impossible.

This club is on pace to score 687 runs (San Fancisco grade bad). For the record, PYTHAG had this team pegged at 683.

The notion that pitching wins championships?

MYTH BUSTED

 

Well, it goes without saying that the season is over. Let this be a lesson to you: sometimes Statheads know what they're talking about.

At least I've still got the Tampa Bay Rays to root for.

 

Yeah Silva has plummeted back to earth of late, but I still think he'll be a slightly better than .500 guy over the long haul. Ryan Rowland-Smith looks like a winner for sure. The Twins took him in the rule 5 draft a couple years back and would have kept him if they weren't in the running for a division title coming out of the spring.

I really feel for ya, baseball is a funny game. The Twins dropped Silva, Hunter and Santana and end up in contention, yet the M's make a big splash in the aquisition department and seem to only get worse. Who's in their Head Office anyway?