JCC [Reactions] U.S. Presidential Election Day 2012

Discussion in 'Community' started by GrandAdmiralJello, Nov 4, 2012.

  1. Rogue_Ten Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 18, 2002
    star 6
    I CAN CHANGE HER :p

    and no she hates sarah palin and the tea party and she's very meh on romney. like the type where she winces when she talks about voting for him, and not just because she knows im a socialist. also, without going into too much more detail, she's apparently voting against joe arpaio and jeff flake and for notorious self-described "socialist" kyrsten sinema so that gives you an idea that she's a bit more complicated (or just politically weird) than your average bear

    wocky's going to be very disappointed when he reads this post and realizes im still seeing this woman...
    Last edited by Rogue_Ten, Nov 5, 2012
  2. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    http://abcnews.go.com/watch/this-we...ie-on-final-moments-of-presidential-campaigns

    Matthew Dowd is sharp. He worked on W's re-election campaign, but he repeatedly dismissed George Will's nonsense in the discussion. He made a number of smart observations in the segment above, particularly when he listed the three things campaigns that are about to lose say. His electoral college prediction is the same as mine.

    It's worth watching the discussion, which was considerably better than I would have expected.
    Last edited by KnightWriter, Nov 5, 2012
  3. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Thanks for the link, Josh. I forgot to DVR "This Week" yesterday when I was at the hospital.
  4. Whitey Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jan 26, 2003
    star 6
    I never thought I could sleep with a Romney supporter, and well, stuff happens that we become rather ashamed of.

    EDIT: Idk why I feel the need to emphasize this, but yes, a GAY Romney supporter
    Last edited by Whitey, Nov 5, 2012
  5. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    [IMG]

    Definitely an odd map but let me explain myself. I actually believe Colorado and Florida are too close to call, but I didn't want to post with toss-ups, as it defeats the purpose.

    I gave Colorado to Romney based on early voting trends. It looks like the GOP is running ahead there, and I expect their actual election day turnout to beat the Democrats' as well. The state elected a Democratic governor and senator in 2010 despite a national Republican wave, but the GOP nominees at the time were fringe candidates like Ken Buck; I expect Romney to be received very differently. Colorado was also one of the first states to start souring on Obama; his approval fell below 50% there in mid-2009 and I'm not sure its ever really bounced back.

    Florida is going to be very, very close. Polling has shown both candidates leading, but it seems like never more than by a point or so. I gave it to Obama because I believe his GOTV operation will be superior to Romney's, and that is what will matter most when the election is as close as it appears. The Democrats also pretty much erased the GOP early voting lead in a single day, and I believe that the Democrats actually got beat in early/absentee voting in 2008 but still managed to win the state.

    In short, early voting/GOTV looks stronger for Obama in Florida than it does in Colorado, so I assigned the states accordingly. Most people will probably have the opposite, Obama with Colorado and Romney with Florida, and based solely on polling I could see this happening as well. One candidate could also win both states, though I believe Romney's chances of getting both are better than Obama's.
    Last edited by goodfellas, Nov 5, 2012
    Summer Dreamer likes this.
  6. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    I think we'll see a few toss-up surprises, but most will break in Obama's favor. Speaking of break, this election will either cement or ruin Nate Silver's reputation. The media narrative of an election too close to call or essentially tied going into tomorrow has been consistently refuted by Nate's models. As I said several years ago, it was a brilliant move for the NYT to take on Nate Silver's blog...unless he turns out to be completely wrong.
    Last edited by Jabbadabbado, Nov 5, 2012
  7. Platelet Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Sep 2, 2012
    star 2
    @goodfellas Even if you give Romney both Colorado and Florida, Obama still wins. In fact, on my map (which I'm too lazy to link), I have Romney winning Florida, Colorado, and Virginia, but Obama still wins 281-257 (with all other states the same as on yours).

    If Obama does carry Virginia (not sure how polling looks there), then he could even lose PA or OH in addition to FL and CO and still win.
  8. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    Obama was up five yesterday in a PPP poll of Virginia. I'm confident that he'll win there, as in Colorado. I have my doubts about Florida, and I think it will go into Romney's column. An Obama win there wouldn't surprise me, though. Obama's strength in Virginia and Colorado are what make me confident in an Obama victory, mostly because even Pennsylvania could go into Romney's column and it would be a moot point.

    I'm struck again by the number of people on the right who are confident in a Romney victory. It could still happen, of course, but the math is not in Romney's favor. Al Gore and John Kerry set a tough baseline for Republicans to overcome in future elections. They both lost the electoral college, but they also only needed one more big state to win (Ohio for Kerry, Florida for Gore). All the states they won are pretty reliably Democratic now, small margins like those in New Hampshire aside.

    Some of the writing (okay, most of it) on RedState is written in an alternate universe that doesn't look much like the one I inhabit. Many of them truly believe that Romney is going to win, which would make a Romney loss a tough thing to deal with.
    Last edited by KnightWriter, Nov 5, 2012
  9. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    If Obama wins, I'm worried that people living inside the Fox News alternate reality bubble are going to have a particularly hard time dealing with it. Just as many democrats would fear that ballot and/or electronic voting machine fraud was at work if Romney somehow pulled out a victory in PA or OH, what will the GOP masses believe if Obama wins?

    I don't think their first reaction is going to be that their trusted news sources all lied to them cynically for months on end in order to try to will a victory into existence through dogged repetition of bad arguments for why it would be so.
    Last edited by Jabbadabbado, Nov 5, 2012
  10. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    I'm honestly a bit envious of the Republicans' ability to exude such confidence.

    Romney hasn't led in an Ohio, Wisconsin, or Nevada poll in weeks if not months, national polls lean towards the president, and early voting is looking good for Obama pretty much everywhere except Colorado and North Carolina. Yet some GOPers think this is in the bag. Democrats, on the other hand, range from either just modestly confident to nervous wrecks despite having much more of an advantage. I guess this is just another odd reverse from 2004; back then the true believer Democrats were convinced that Bush was so horrible and surely so reviled by everyone else that there was no way we could possibly win. A lot of Obama's opponents feel the same way today.

    I hope Sean Hannity cries on air if Obama pulls through.
    Last edited by goodfellas, Nov 5, 2012
    Summer Dreamer likes this.
  11. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    I don't think Romney has ever led a poll in Ohio for any meaningful amount of time, particularly if you exclude R-mussmen.

    I agree with that concern, Ken. I'd like for Obama to win by a big enough margin in the electoral college, and in the individual states, that there's no basis for fraud accusations, but then again, there were many such accusations in 2008 with a wide margin of victory.
  12. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    He hasn't, and I'm almost positive that Rasmussen showed only a tie.
  13. Game3525 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 25, 2008
    star 4
    Yeah, Dowd is one of the few mainstream Republicans who hasn't become an all out hack this election.
  14. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
  15. GrandAdmiralJello Community and Lit moderator person

    Manager
    Member Since:
    Nov 28, 2000
    star 10
    Hope so. I hope the people who are really bankrolling these campaigns realize what their support of an extremist ideology has cost them.
    Arawn_Fenn and VadersLaMent like this.
  16. Game3525 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 25, 2008
    star 4
    MSNBC just said Romney is spending election day in OH instead of NH.

    I don't see what Romney is trying to accomplish.
  17. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    I'm going to be very irritated if Pennsylvania flips to Romney, since it is my home state :).

    An eruption of Romney signs in my general area this morning. Grrrrr....

    Polls still showing an Obama lead, but I have a feeling his win will be only about three points.

    Peace,

    V-03
    Last edited by Vaderize03, Nov 5, 2012
  18. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    No matter who wins tomorrow, I would welcome a bipartisan effort for legislation to limit Citizens United. If Romney loses, maybe there will be more GOP support for some initiative.
    Juliet316 likes this.
  19. PRENNTACULAR VIP

    Member Since:
    Dec 21, 2005
    star 6
    I ended a really good date prematurely two weeks ago because the girl said she was voting for Romney, and was serious. It went like this:

    Her: Wait, you're voting for Obama?
    Me: Wait, you're voting for Romney?
    Her: Yeah. I like his stances and his policies.
    Me: Really?
    Her: Yeah.
    Me: Well, I had a good night! But I have to turn in early.

    No joke.
    Whitey likes this.
  20. Whitey Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jan 26, 2003
    star 6
    I'm annoyed that an article titled "3 Myths About the Romney Campaign" does not have a neat numbered list of these myths and therefore I'm not reading it.
    MrZAP and MASTERPRENN like this.
  21. Game3525 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 25, 2008
    star 4
    Rasmussen final OH poll is a tie at 49%......same as it was in 2008 and Obama won by 5.

    I know polling is not a 100% accurate, but it is really hard seeing Mitt winning there. There has been well over 20 polls there, and the best he can mange is a tie.....even Kerry lead some polls back in 2004.
  22. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Obama needs to win by a more decisive margin than Ohio.

    Here's why.

    That's not counting court challenges. If Obama wins Virginia and Pennsylvania, or Pennsylvania and Florida, then what happens in Ohio probably doesn't matter. But if it really does end up looking like 2004, then the above scenario could potentially become very likely.

    Also, polls have shown the Nelson (D) is leading Mack (R) for Florida senate but a comfortable margin, and blows him away in likeability ratings, which makes me wonder if there will be an "up ballot" effect for Obama that will run counter to the polls which show the state neck-and-neck at the Presidential level.

    Peace,

    V-03
    Last edited by Vaderize03, Nov 5, 2012
  23. Game3525 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 25, 2008
    star 4
    Some Republicans are already blaming Sandy if Mitt loses.

    Thank god for Nate Silver and Sam Wang if Obama wins, they both said about two weeks ago Romney's momentum had stopped.
  24. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    Republicans keep harping on independents, which is another thing that Matthew Dowd shot down yesterday. It won't be enough for Romney.
  25. Game3525 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 25, 2008
    star 4
    And Obama has actually cut into Romney's lead among independents(according to ABC tracker and PPP).

    Anyway, Republicans are now banking on the electorate being closer to 2010......which IMO is nonsense since the country has gotten more diverse every election year.