Fun fact: Abrams was supposed to do post-production on Super 8 while doing pre-production on Star Trek into Darkness to meet Trek 2's original May 2012 deadline! That did not quite work out. Also, Abrams doesn't seem like the type who has, ever, directed something that was just "here's the script, you!, go shoot!". He's going to want to massage it a bit. That's just how he rolls. 2016 seems very likely to me, 2015 always seemed a bit ambitious even when first announced. Marvel can get a turnaround on it's movies much quicker because the trolley is already rolling. The Lucasfilm / Star Wars trolley barely even has wheels on it yet!