Senate Revolution in the Muslim World

Iran can talk smack all it likes; it's not in any position to be taken seriously by the SC and doesn't have the ability to strike at Israel. These are hollow words from either of them.

 

But what about Russia?

 

What about them? if you think they'd seriously try to punish Israel, or that the world community would let them for something most countries would probably do (seriously-anyone think India wouldn't be doing the exact same thing to Pakistan if Pakistan was coming apart at the seams and there was even the faintest possibility of Pakistan's nuclear weapons being overrun?). Russia's level of foreign policy these days is the international equivalent of Internet trolls trying to look hard. I bet they shot their mouths off the last time Israel did this, and the time before that, and the time before that...they've never done anything actually real against Israel.

 

I hope so

 

until women in those countries take their oppressive head covers off and rebel against the old school philosophy the middle east and their like minded countries will never have a cultural evolution.

women are the key to this revolution.

 

Whenever the IR is angry, they lash out at opposition and reformists at home, and start confiscating people's satellite dishes and doing other unrelated things that have nothing to do with the people they're actually angry with. Like a cowardly abusive husband who beats his wife because someone else humiliated him at work. Israel has nothing to worry about.

 

Russia would never dare attack Israel. It would be like attacking the United States, and would be responded to by the US as such.

In other words, WWIII. I don't think anybody in the Kremlin hates Israel or loves the arab nations that much; they certainly don't want to risk trading Moscow for Tel Aviv.

The risk of that is less with Obama in the White House, but if it had been Romney, or some other conservative Republican...then I wouldn't be so sure.

But for now, it's not a even a remote possibility.

Peace,

V-03

 

....and to put fears of Russia to rest, I would like to point out that Israel's strike against Syria's nuclear research reactor a few years back was also "an unprovoked attacked on the territory of a sovereign nation". Then, as now, there was an awful lot of saber rattling, but not much else.

This is for show. Nothing is likely to happen.

 

I wasn't talking about a Russian attack... I was thinking that Russia could lead economic sanctions against Israel, as I said in my previous post.

 

They could try, I guess. Don't think it'd work, though-Israel's behaviour in this situation is pretty much what any country with a neighbor coming apart at the seams and chemical weapons potentially at risk of falling into the hands of people who've expressed genocidal intent would do.

 

They'd have to go through the UN, and the US would block it. They would be unsuccesful trying to do it on their own, the EU would not participate, and without America and Europe on board, any sanctions would fail.

Putin won't take the risk. There's not enough upside in it for him.

Peace,

V-03

 

Live from Beirut

A little insight into the melting pot of identities that is Lebanon, and how their different TV stations reflect this diversity of worldview and sense of self in relation to the broader Arab world. An interesting read.

Edit:

And here's a travel log through the Arab monarchies, here represented by Saudi, Oman and Jordan.

 

That was interesting-particularly the part about how Hezbollah is apparently trying to turn into a conventional army. That's pretty unique amongst terrorist groups.

 

Attacking Israel is like attacking the United States? How so? The US and Israel are allies not siblings, and the cold war ended in 1989.

The US didn't bother in the Falklands war with our special ally Britan, the US didn't bother in Liberia it's former colony, What makes you the the US will bother with Israel. I understand Israel produces alot of patents and thus tech, but thats hardly worth risking the continued exsitance of the United States and the continued habitability of the North American continent over a country smaller than most states in a region that would be abandond scrubland if not for its religious significance.

 

Your geopolitcs are way off. Why would the US have intervened the Falklands? That was an internal matter of British sovereignty involving British citizens whose homes had been occupied by a foreign government.

One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other. Israel and the US are very close allies, and the Cold War being over is irrelevant. While not actively hostile towards each other, I would hardly call the US and Russia "friends". If Russia were to attack Israel militarily, your contention is that America would do nothing. I dispute that in its entirety for two reasons:

1) Politically, whomever's party held the White House would be destroyed in the next election if they failed to come to Israel's aid during such a conflict

2) During the Yom Kippur War, when Israel turned the tide on its Arab aggressors, Leonid Brehznev threatened to send troops to the Sinai to aid the Egyptians. In response, Richard Nixon put US forces on worlwide alert and raised American readiness to DefCon 3, the highest level since the Cuban MIssile Crisis.

I think it's fair to say that even if Russia pursued "sanctions" against Israel, they wouldn't dare come to Syria's aid militarily. To do so would absolutely risk confrontation with the United States, and Putin has no interest in that.

The man possesses one of the most calculating minds on the planet; if there isn't something major in it for him and his country's ability to wield power, he ain't gonna do it.

Peace,

V-03

 

We can and have widened the scope of a war specifically because of Israel-the entire Scud-hunting operation in Desert Storm was specifically conducted to keep Israel from entering the conflict; there were already Special Forces across the border, but the mission change/enlargement (and involvement of Delta Force) from strategic reconnaissance to Scud-hunting was to keep Israel neutral, in addition to Vaderize's points.

And we did aid England in the Falklands-it's largely because of American weapons and logistical/intelligence support that the English were even able to conduct the war:

http://www.academia.edu/367903/Sign...istance_to_Great_Britain_in_the_Falklands_War

 

So why would the US involve itself between One soveregin power over another if it Did not fight in the falklands war? It was Argentina vs England over a bunch of poinless rocks in the ocean. Why would the US involve iteself with Russia over a bunch of scrublands in the middle east. Your the guy who said If the russians attacked Israel, America would react as if it was attacked itself. I don't see the logic in that.

As for number 2, Cold war Soviet Union. What does the United States have to gain for doing the same again?

 

You answered your own question : alliances.

Also, what Darth Boba said.

Either way, Russia would not attack Israel because in terms of geopolitics, the US would see it as an attack on itself. Israel is not a member of NATO, but in the US, we treat it militarily as if we had a similar treaty with them. It's not anything in 'writing', but rather, an intangible form of support for which there is widespread knowledge amongst the world's powers.

It's the same reason Egypt, Syria, Iran, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia all don't get together and try to collectively wipe Israel off the map in the name of defending the Palestinians (to use one example, amongst many others). They know they'd be fighting America as well, and nobody wants to go there.

I don't think I can really explain it any better than that; to me it's black-and-white, but to others, less so.

Peace,

V-03

 

The other reason why Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia et al don't get together and try to collectively wipe Israel off the map is simply because those countries they learned their lesson in 1967. When you look at the Six Day War, it was really won in the first 24 hours. Even without the threat of direct US intervention, Israel has proven itself to have an extremely efficient, well trained and deadly military force. They train literally as though their very existence depends on it. It's one of the inevitable consequences of being a small state surrounded by haters. In any event, the US would most definitely intervene.

 

Nuclear weapons too.

 

Yes, I believe that little minor detail has an impact on the strategic calculus of its enemies.

 

Strategic calculus 101

Nuclear weapons + will to use them = stay the **** away!

 

This is over a week old, but Ahmadinejad makes first Cairo visit since Iran and Egypt broke ties in 1980, and dodges a shoe aimed at him by a Syrian protester.

 

Apparently the Saudis and Egyptians want to build a cross-Red Sea bridge as well.

 

A lot of things happened last week, apparently. Leaders of the Syrian opposition met with Biden and the foreign ministers of Russia and Iran. There's a nice panel discussion about it here. It's 25 minutes long, though.