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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

Discussion in 'Anthology' started by AmidalaLover, Dec 26, 2015.

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  1. Ubraniff Zalkaz

    Ubraniff Zalkaz Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Feb 26, 2014
    I don't see the need to worry about the Han Solo film. I think it's going to be great. Think of it as Raiders of the Lost Ark set in space with more comedy.
     
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  2. TCF-1138

    TCF-1138 Anthology/Fan Films/NSA Mod & Ewok Enthusiast star 6 Staff Member Manager

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    Sep 20, 2002
    Yeah, but Raiders with Not-Harrison Ford playing Indy, and Not-John Rhys-Davies playing Sallah.
    And if it has the same balance between comedy and seriousness as Raiders I'd say they would hit the right spot. But more comedy than Raiders? I'm not so sure.
     
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  3. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Dec 18, 2015
    If we remember that Disney has their infamous "vault" where they keep some of their most valuable movies, only to not saturate the market with them, you know that they are very aware of the issues of saturation and know how to deal with it.
     
  4. Ubraniff Zalkaz

    Ubraniff Zalkaz Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Feb 26, 2014
    Didn't I say not to worry?
     
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  5. TCF-1138

    TCF-1138 Anthology/Fan Films/NSA Mod & Ewok Enthusiast star 6 Staff Member Manager

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    Sep 20, 2002
    Fair enough! [face_peace]
     
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  6. Tommy-wan

    Tommy-wan Jedi Knight star 3

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    Aug 15, 2015
    $1.75 million Monday for RO...
     
  7. Ubraniff Zalkaz

    Ubraniff Zalkaz Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Feb 26, 2014
    Just trying to channel Han's optimism.
     
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  8. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Knight star 3

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    Dec 28, 2016
    wow pretty bad, what about international
    and do you know what are the true number for foreign 450 or 437?
     
  9. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

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    Sep 19, 2002
    Again schools are back (today was our first day back with kids) so there was going to be a major drop. Totally expected as Disney knows (just like any studio) that the new model for holiday opens is a double edge sword. If it hits, then you can really do some just insane numbers in the first 3-4 weeks. As we spoken about on here, the tradition of going to the movies over the holidays is really taken hold and now with the college schedule being more the norm across the country, you really can frontload a movie and make great bank. The problem is once that window of the kiddies off school closes, your window shuts really quickly. So you better run up the scoreboard like R1 has because you are not going to get much legs.

    As it is, $500 million is obviously a lock. The question is $550 doable. The numbers say it is but my spidey senses say it might not get there. Still though a $500/1 billion split is just insane all things being equal. This is like a Iron Man movie doing a $500/1 billion split. Remarkable.
     
  10. vong333

    vong333 Force Ghost star 5

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    Oct 18, 2003
    No, $550 million will not happen. Looking at maybe $518-535 domestic run. By next week, we probably see under a million reporting per week day.
     
  11. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

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    Dec 19, 2015
    lol I haven't been able to lower my expectations fast enough to keep up (down) with Rogue One's performance. $550 million...still possible depending on how it does this weekend? There is a holiday Monday in the U.S., so that should elevate both the Sunday and Monday numbers.
     
  12. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Knight star 3

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    Dec 28, 2016
    RO is not having great leg in US, but the number are already high, internationally RO is having better leg than expected but the number are good no more, maybe RO can still hit 1 billion cause of international, but this is not going to catch civil war RO lost the battle for 1 first place, but next year star wars will strike back and episode 8 will blow everything
     
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  13. Guidman

    Guidman Skywalker Saga Mod and Trivia Host star 6 Staff Member Manager

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    Dec 29, 2016
    Until I read this I had forgot that MLK Day is on Monday. It's a pretty crowded weekend with five new films going wide. Granted, two of them I have never even heard of (The Bye Bye Man and Sleepless) and Monster Trucks looks like it could hands down be one of the worst movies of all time. Patriots Day should do the best out of all of them. Rogue One should finally lose some theatres this weekend to make way for all the new ones. It will probably be third behind whichever wins out of Hidden Figures and Patriots Day.
     
  14. Tommy-wan

    Tommy-wan Jedi Knight star 3

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    Aug 15, 2015
    It's totally expected and the drop is actually 2% smaller than the one TFA had at the same point in time. The 3-day WE should be $14-15 million, unless some serious rebound is in the cards. For now, it looks like it's gonna miss $550m (looks like $540-$545m to me). $16m+ weekend is needed to keep a decent shot at $550m+...

    Not sure about international yet...
     
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  15. Tommy-wan

    Tommy-wan Jedi Knight star 3

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    Aug 15, 2015
    Lol, $518m is simply not happening...
    RO is currently making roughly 58% of what TFA made after the holidays (not counting either of the movie's first Mondays). It is at $38m while TFA was at $65.5m, and this week doesn't seem to be much different. It will still probably do 55% or more of TFA's weekly gross...
     
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  16. vong333

    vong333 Force Ghost star 5

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    Oct 18, 2003
    boxofficemojo.com has not updated its international box office cume which makes me wonder if the-numbers site $450 million was accurate reporting. If they international numbers are low then usually boxofficemojo will update once a week.
     
  17. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Knight star 3

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    Dec 28, 2016
    BOM didn't uptaded the international number for monday, usually they put international be4 domestic, maybe they are checking which number is right
     
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  18. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999

    Haha, what?! Where are people on this thread getting their ideas? Rogue One fell 72% from Sunday; TFA fell 74% from Sunday at this point in time. There's no real difference in performance as it relates to legs. Rogue One has had excellent legs. It's already past a 3x multiple and will finish somewhere around 3.5x maybe higher. That would be $542M roughly, which I would say it is well on track to accomplish as a floor.

    Also, Vong333, don't be so pessimistic. There's no reason for it. $518M would be Batman v. Superman legs from here on out, why would it perform that way? TFA also took a dive on weekend 4, but it recovered just fine and went on to squeeze out quite a bit more money. If it followed the legs of BVS or Civil War, which it has always been well ahead of, it would make about $35M more and that's it, but that would be incredibly shocking at this point to say the least. I still expect another $70M from Rogue One. This weekend should be very solid, a much better decline on account of better weather, a holiday weekend, and coming off a large drop. It could still make $20M this weekend for the 4-day period, but certainly $18M or so anyway.

    At this point it'll just creep up and up and the rest is really gravy. The war is won in just a few days, Finding Dory will be toast, what more did you want? I mean it's the highest grossing movie of 2016 in a few days time, which then also means Star Wars becomes the first franchise in film history to have back-to-back winners at the box office. That record will never be taken away, and it'll actually almost certainly be improved upon this year when Episode VIII makes it back-to-back-to-back yearly winners. That is something that may never be eclipsed or at least it may take longer than most of us will live to see ha ha. Unless of course it's another Star Wars movie series, then yes, maybe.

    This is the victory lap, the cherry on top, just enjoy it. I still think TDK will fall too and to say the range is $518M to $534M is ridiculous, the ceiling is still well above $550M. It may not happen, but don't limit the movie prematurely. This reminds me EXACTLY of The Force Awakens box office thread. I don't think some people are very good at figuring out how much money is left for a movie. They just kind of go, "Well it's not making a $50M per weekend anymore, I guess it's over." There were people who were saying TFA wouldn't hit $900M, which was absolutely ridiculous! Then there were a bunch more thinking $915-920M, even when that number was absolutely guaranteed.

    Let me put this the simplest way possible in summary: When TFA made $14M in a weekend, it had $879M total. It went on to make $57M more than that. After a $14M weekend. Rogue One just had a $22M weekend and some of you think it doesn't have $57M left? Are you joking? Is it being pulled from theaters tomorrow or something and I just don't know about it? $57M + $477M (total after last weekend) by the way is $534M and bye bye The Dark Knight. So when I say that's the floor, yeah, that's the floor. Not the ceiling.
     
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  19. Skillzwalker

    Skillzwalker Jedi Master star 3

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    Oct 24, 2015
    If Bowen is correct and I am not going to argue with him thats a pretty damn impressive performance domestically. Its foreign take is down a bit when comparing to TFA which from memory had a 45/55 split where as R1 is currently at 52/48. It may finish more like 50/50 but going by Bowens prediction of say $540M Domestic if R1 had a 45/55 like TFA it would translate to $1.2B WW giving it the number 1 title for 2016 for both domestic and WW.

    Regardless its a great performance, Star Wars is now the ultimate power in the BO universe! (always was IMO but its undeniable now)

    EDIT: part of the lower OS take would be even weaker currencies against $US, in particular the UK.
     
  20. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    I suspect the strong dollar is largely (but not entirely?) to blame for the difference in split. Star Wars movies have been fairly consistent with their splits honestly, I don't think a Star Wars movie is going to make more than half its money domestic unless there's an especially weak currency factor going on. I have to say, though, there's a lot of digging you could do into the whole thing and you'd probably spend months figuring out what is really going on there.

    What I mean to say is the prequels had around that 45 / 55 split but they had no China. TPM was huge domestic in much the same way TFA was huge domestic. At most, TFA was a few million tickets ahead of TPM, but it wasn't such an outsized domestic "thing" that you'd expect the split to remain the same. It's almost like (not trying to say this is true, just making a hypothesis) Star Wars has continued to gain popularity in North America and has remained roughly stagnant internationally. What to make of that? Who the heck knows. I sure don't.

    There has been so much growth in overseas box offices over the past 15 years, I honestly didn't think when TFA came out that it would even be possible for the split to be anywhere close to 50-50 and yet it was actually fairly close to that. I didn't by any means expect a 30 / 70 split, because all of the past trends with Star Wars indicated that wasn't likely, but I did expect much more like an upper 30s / lower 60s split. Something like 38 / 62 for instance. I just don't think international territories are as into Star Wars as English speaking ones, and since there are only a handful of those like UK / Australia, you end up with a weird split compared to other major franchises.

    This was true even when I was growing up, though, and as a teenager I just couldn't understand it at all. Star Wars was THE movie franchise here in North America, and overseas it was just like any other blockbuster franchise. Yet it always seemed (seems?) like you can't say that without having international fans jump down your throat. As I've said, I know we have die-hard fans in literally every country, but it seems like the general audience in North America practically can be called "casual fans" and in other countries, not so much.

    I believe there was some hope Disney could with their marketing muscle begin to turn that around, but we may not see it for quite some time. I wouldn't say never, though. TFA still was one of only a few movies ever to make more than $1B internationally, which is completely ridiculous, despite the China mediocrity ($124M is a good number, though, it just wasn't a great one). That means there will presumably be generations of people growing up with Star Wars in foreign countries where perhaps they didn't get into it before. Maybe I'm off base saying so, but it seems like as there are more and more Star Wars movies, they would become a larger part of other cultures as well, even ones not into the OT from long ago.

    Every other hypothesis I come up with falls flat on its face because there are too many counter-examples. I used to think, well maybe it's a sci-fi thing? Maybe some foreign audiences simply don't like sci-fi? But then how do you explain Avatar being by far the highest grossing movie ever worldwide? Could it be the lone exception because it succeeded primarily based on groundbreaking 3D technology? I mean I know if I say that, someone else is going to think I'm belittling Avatar, which isn't my goal, I'm just saying it was WOW technology when it was new. I'm not sure if everyone remembers that, but I sure do. I think Avatar is a good movie, but in retrospect I don't really think the story or characters are that great. I do, however, think my EXPERIENCE seeing Avatar in theaters that first time in 3D was one of the greatest cinematic experiences of my life. It was like truly entering another world and being teleported to Pandora. I honestly felt it was pretty incredible and went back to theaters twice more to see it (3 times total). If you look at the other big, successful movies internationally they are either more down to earth or more easily translated than something like Star Wars -- Titanic, for instance, or Furious 7 with a bunch of fast cars, some pretty chicks, and explosions, or Jurassic World / Jurassic Park, which I think anyone can understand dinosaurs running amok.

    Although honestly that still doesn't explain Harry Potter or Lord of the Rings, unless you want to argue that foreign audiences enjoy fantasy but not quite as much sci-fi. That seems... bizarre, though, since Star Wars is more fantasy than it is sci-fi and the two genres are so closely related that it would be an odd bias. In other words, I reject that hypothesis that sci-fi is inherently handicapped internationally and that leaves me back at square one. Not really sure why Star Wars is so much bigger in North America / English-speaking countries. Our foreign friends here insist it has nothing to do with translations and that there is no language barrier. Yet why the unbelievably coincidence, then, that Star Wars is always biggest in English speaking countries? Sure isn't a plot or character thing -- Star Wars borrows heavily from Eastern religions.
     
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  21. Skillzwalker

    Skillzwalker Jedi Master star 3

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    Oct 24, 2015
    Worth keeping in mind that the TFA performed amazingly in the US. It blew away almost every record there is achieving $930M+. If it did $800M domestic it would still of been extremely impressive, amazing even, however assuming the same OS take the sort of split you (Bowen) was talking about pre-release (38/62) would not of been far off the mark.

    Basically what I am saying is TFA overachieved in the US and probably performed as well as can be expected elsewhere.
     
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  22. Jester J Binks

    Jester J Binks Jedi Master star 4

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    Dec 19, 2016
    TFA did not overtake Avatar in global box office despite having every reason to. Overachieve seems a bit of an over exaggeration. On the domestic front, It had essentially four generations built in. Baby boomers. Gen X. Gen Y. Millennials. Or OT kids, OT parents, PT kids, ST kids.

    Rogue One was also a once in a lifetime "first" anthology SW movie.

    Compared to other movies, TFA R1 did great. Within the SW franchise, they did about what was expected. TFA slightly moreso (due to absence/torch pass variable), R1 slightly less so (maybe due to what seems to be more initial critique than TFA received).
     
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  23. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999

    You guys are killing me. This is the danger we have when we have a box office thread on a forum of general fans. If you're not really a box office watcher, and you have this opinion, then the thing that frustrates me is you go spreading this idea to other people who don't know better. You're just completely and utterly wrong, in every way it's possible to be wrong about the box office. Rogue One did NOT do slightly worse than expected, or slightly worse compared to how it should have done, or anything along those lines! It is going to be the 6th or 7th highest grossing movie ever made! That is absolutely insane. It's a spin-off film to the series. If it only made $300M in North America it would still be a good, solid success. It will nearly double what is a good gross for a movie to make, any movie! There wasn't much of any criticism of Rogue One, either, the movie stands at 85% on RT and if anything has more support from fans than TFA did. THAT may be opinion, but the box office take is simply not.

    To say that TFA did slightly better than expected or whatever you're trying to say is ludicrous. A case can be made for TFA as the most successful movie of all time on first release. I'm not personally making that case, as I think it's easier to defend Titanic as the best first-release of all time, perhaps even ANH, but it would be between those 3. It would not include Gone With the Wind -- the all time adjusted for inflation champion -- because that movie had 9 releases and played for a solid year or two the first time it came out. Different world with like 1/3 as many people living in the U.S. so basically it's a useless comparison. The point is, to say that TFA slightly exceeded expectations is spit-your-drink out ridiculous beyond belief. The movie didn't just become the highest grossing of all time, it did so in 20 days! It blew away almost every box office record that is even tracked.

    When you say that TFA had "every reason" to overtake Avatar at the worldwide box office it shows how clueless you are to comment about this subject whatsoever, and I don't mean that in a rude way, I mean it in a matter-of-fact way. Anyone who follows these matters understands that Avatar had WAY MORE favorable exchange rates than TFA, so if you adjust for currency exchange rates TFA came within about 10% of Avatar's worldwide total. That's also not accounting for the fact that in most places like North America Avatar sold almost every ticket in 3D, which means it had even higher average ticket prices than would be expected for a blockbuster movie. To say that TFA should have beat Avatar is ludicrous. It had no chance of that and everyone who follows the box office already knew that before it came out. Most of us were just hoping for a narrow victory in North America and honestly those were us fans -- like me -- who have crazy high hopes for a Star Wars movie. PLENTY of people had TFA grossing $600M or so, well short of the all time crown, and there were people here thinking TFA would make $400M or $500M tops. What it did to the box office was like a bull in a China shop, an especially angry, hungry bull, that left nothing in its wake.

    You won't see another monster like TFA at the box office for a long, long time, and maybe one day you'll think about this post and what I told you and realize that you witnessed something incredibly special that only comes along once in a decade at most. For TFA, it will remain one of the biggest hits of all time, in 100 years of cinema history. It stands amongst giants. And Rogue One has performed better than several saga films on first release, which is downright impressive.
     
  24. vong333

    vong333 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 18, 2003
    Boy these last posts were great. I agree that some of us, especially including me kind of assumed that the movie's box office numbers hit a stand still. I know I have, and I can attribute that to the anticipation of wanting it to cross the last hurdles. The star wars movies have always been a huge domestic box office situation and it wasn't until the prequels started coming out that the international box office started to be cashed in. I think that's great. The prequels, TFA and R1 have all benefited from good international numbers and will continue to do so in years to come. There are improvements that have to be made and compared to some of the main stream movies, we may not be there, but so much has been good for star wars, especially as of late. Disney has not disappointed and I don't care if Avatar 2, 3, or 4 make $5 billion each, no one can ever say that the star wars movies sucked. Star Trek never got that chance to be that great and they are an institution when it comes to science fiction. Back in the 2000's, franchise like Spiderman, Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter were taking all the credit and there were those that just bashed the prequels into submission, but little by little we are taking it back. Two movies in and they both combined have made $3 billion and counting just on box office money.

    I have no stock in Disney, but I definitely cannot wait for R1 to surpass Dory and getting over the $500 million marker in the domestic box office. We will have the 2016 crown on the domestic side and two-peat as the number 1 movie of the year. We are in the top 10 in the all time domestic box office and on a first run basis we will be the 2nd star wars movie to ever pass the half billion mark, and we will become the 7th movie in box office history to cross the half billion dollar marker. Internationally we already are the number 41 in the world. That's impressive, though, I admit. I'll breathe easier once we get to the billion dollar marker. The press coverage that goes with getting a billion dollars will only help star wars even more in the long run.

    I do want to say this though, a billion is just a number and doesn't really say whether a movie is truly good or not. I know that in 2020 when Disney gets the prequels and The Empire Strikes Back/Return of the Jedi, they will at least re-release in 3-D the prequels brining the box office for those movies up even more, and I suspect that ROTS will cross the billion dollar marker un-adjusted. If Disney gets star wars or makes a deal with Fox to re-release that movie in 3-D in theaters, that movie will also cross the billion dollar marker un-adjusted. So in the end, the box office isn't really done for any of the star wars movies.

    I'll tell you this, R1 is very good and with each viewing it becomes better and better. This is an awesome prequel to probably one of the best movies in history.
     
  25. AndyLGR

    AndyLGR Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 1, 2014
    Maybe the unbelievable success of TFA elevated peoples hopes for the box office take for RO. Whilst the general media were probably wanting this film to fail with their stories of a film in trouble due to reshoots, it seems to have been embraced by the public. Its turned out to be very popular and they've made a film as good as if not better than TFA IMO.

    Clearly I don't follow or profess to understand the box office but in all my time of following SW I have never seen so much hype and expectation surrounding a film as there was for TFA. Sure there was a lot for TPM, but not on the scale as TFA, that continued even after the movie was released. It was like a runaway train. That doesn't happen often, let alone for a franchise nearly 40 years old and on its 7th film. But I think that was a one off in the ST, the others surely can't hit those heights.
     
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