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Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

Discussion in 'Anthology' started by AmidalaLover, Dec 26, 2015.

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  1. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002

    Kiddies are all back in school therefore that is 100% expected. It should have a nice 3-day weekend and then quickly fade away. My guess it will wind up around $225-230 range giving Dreamworks a very nice 2016 as their two movies for the year made over $600 million in NA.

    The drop off for Rogue One I think will start this after this weekend. Not to still say it won't continue to produce but this should be it's last big weekend. Been a heck of a run, be over $500 million before it starts to really slow down.
     
  2. SWRed7

    SWRed7 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Sep 16, 2015
    Surprised to see Rogue One will be losing 995 theatres this week. Seems like a lot. Maybe I'm wrong. Even though there are several new releases hopefully it will play to a top 3 finish this weekend.

    In comparison, TFA lost 312 for its 5th week. It will be interesting to see how it does. I'll finally be able to go see it again on Monday.
     
  3. my kind of scum

    my kind of scum Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Mar 4, 2002
    Locally, (the three theatres in driving distance of me) R1 is going from 5 screens to two this weekend. The oddest thing I find with that is that it has still been difficult to get seats without buying ahead of time. Every evening show has been selling out (or having a few random single seats here and there). I realize there are several new films hitting, but the screen drop seems a little strange.
     
    Bowen likes this.
  4. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999

    Ha, no. Rogue One will officially surpass Finding Dory tomorrow for #1 in North America. I'm already scheduled to eat dinner at Cheesecake Factory because it's close and my GF likes it... and they have fish. So tomorrow, I'm sinking my teeth into some delicious fish -- FISH ARE FOOD, NOT FRIENDS!!!! -- and going to see Rogue One after that in IMAX Downtown :)

    In about 25 minutes I'm leaving for my 14th viewing. I'm running behind my pace for TFA by a lot, because of lousy weather, but what it does mean is there's no burnout. I'm feeling the same about seeing Rogue One right now as I was like two weeks ago, because I haven't seen it nearly enough to satiate my almost insatiable appetite for Star Wars. Nom. Nom. Nom. Fish. :D

    I also am hoping for a better 3-day weekend. I know that given some factors it seems like being too optimistic is just a recipe for disappointment, but I do expect over $14M from the 3-day. I think it could do $20M for the 4-day frankly (my personal prediction is more like $18M), I don't think that's out of the question. I'm sure I'll be wrong probably, but I honestly believe weather ruined last weekend. I couldn't see Rogue One last Saturday because of weather, and many states in the Midwest and East were screwed with it too.

    I'm so annoyed that my local theater had to switch the IMAX to La La Land starting tomorrow. So. Annoyed. It's the difference between a 14 minute drive to go see Rogue One in IMAX and probably a 30 minute drive. It also basically rules out seeing Rogue One at any other time besides the last showing, because there's NO WAY I am driving downtown during the day or during rush out, so 10:25 p.m. it is for Friday night. I'll probably see an afternoon Sunday though, because it's the weekend, and then go from there. Monday, Wednesday, Thursday maybe?

    PS: Not sure why you'd draw the line at saying Rogue One will really fall after this weekend? No... it really fell LAST weekend, and during the week, after the holidays. It'll stabilize from this point, just like TFA, and gradually coast along until about $550M into the sunset of Blu-ray / digital release.
     
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  5. AndyLGR

    AndyLGR Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 1, 2014
    I notice BOM hasn't had a major jump in figures for a few days now, just a couple of million $ added each day. I'm expecting a big jump soon on the current total of $920m
     
  6. vong333

    vong333 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 18, 2003
    It's that international cume that hasn't been updated. I hope that when it does its a bit substantial. Hopefully. Domestic wise, I don't know. I don't see $550, I just don't. Still, who cares, because once we pass Dory and get the $500 million marker, the rest it insignificant. Yeah, passing The Dark Knight would be great, but really? I think reaching $500 million will definitely garner some publicity as well as the billion dollar marker. And, I did expect R1 to lose that many theaters. Remember, its not playing on TFA level, so the drop was understandable.
     
  7. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    this weekend it will drop to 3000 theater
     
  8. Dr_Cthulhu

    Dr_Cthulhu Jedi Master star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2015
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  9. moreorless12

    moreorless12 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jan 4, 2016
    I'd still be pretty confident of passing The Dark Knight personally, the dregs of a films run at second cinemas can bring in quite a lot of cash.
     
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  10. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    i don't think it will pass 1 billiard this week end, maybe next week end, if this pass 1 billiard by monday the it will have a chance to beat captain amercia cause that mean that he have great leg internationally
     
  11. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002

    And if it doesn't then really isn't a big deal. It will clip $500 million sometime early next week (Wednesday at the latest) with a $1 billion worldwide on the horizon but in terms of milestone marks, the next week or so should be it. Could it squeeze out another $35 million to beat The Dark Knight domestically? It very well could but isn't a massive milestone. Still though however it ends up, it was a heck of a run. We are talking Top 10 domestic and Top 25 Worldwide. Just stellar numbers.
     
  12. Tommy-wan

    Tommy-wan Jedi Knight star 3

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    Aug 15, 2015
    $2.5 million Friday from China (-74%)...
     
  13. Dr_Cthulhu

    Dr_Cthulhu Jedi Master star 2

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    Dec 29, 2015
  14. K-2SOS

    K-2SOS Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2016
    Not gonna hit 1 billion THIS weekend.

    Especially not when the weekend to weekend drop in China is like that Friday number is indicating (-74%).

    I had it at or around 985 million on Monday with a 50% drop over the weekend in China.

    Still, as stated above, R1 gonna hit 500 domestic & 1billion WW in no time, which are great & special accomplishments on it's own. It was a great run & it's not over yet. Like Bowen already said, we can all sleep like Babies, knowing that the Star Wars brand is in great shape, and also he can have his Fish today.
     
  15. Tommy-wan

    Tommy-wan Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Aug 15, 2015
    $1.7 million on Thursday for RO. Great hold from Wednesday and $500m will be in the rear view mirror by Monday... :)
     
  16. Oissan

    Oissan Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Huge weekend drops are the norm in China though, a 50% drop would have been completely unexpected. On top of that, weekly drops from the opening day are always larger than the weekend drop itself. In the US, TFA dropped about 60% Friday to Friday, but only 40% for the weekend. Jurassic World 65% and 49%, The Avengers 64% and 50%, etc.

    This is a holiday weekend in the US, so hitting 500m at the end of it could be possible. It's a bit too early for 1 billion ww though.
     
  17. TheOneX_Eleazar

    TheOneX_Eleazar Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 24, 2013
    So, what would you guys suggest Disney do differently to try and get China on board with Star Wars?
     
  18. Oissan

    Oissan Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Nothing, apart from not screwing up the translation. Either they like the movie that gets made or they don't, there is little that can be done about that. TFA was really unpopular in China, unlike in most of the common Star Wars markets. Trying to accomodate Chinese tastes can only hurt in the countries where Star Wars is hugely popular. Let Johnson do his thing and see whether audiences in China like it. If not, tough luck. Not everything works everywhere.
     
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  19. TheOneX_Eleazar

    TheOneX_Eleazar Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 24, 2013
    Ok, that wasn't very helpful at answering my question. I did not ask that question to get an answer that dismisses the possibility completely. I asked for because I am interested in getting a genuine answer of what it would take from someone who might know better than I do.
     
  20. Valryk

    Valryk Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2016
    There isn't much they can do other than making a good movie. SW doesn't have the same cultural impact there like in the west. If I'm correct the PT was shown there first and then the OT. Can't say I blame them if their first exposure to SW was Jar Jar Binks.
     
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  21. Guidman

    Guidman Skywalker Saga Mod and Trivia Host star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Out of the more than $3 billion dollars that the last two films will have made, well less than 10% (lets say ~$180-$200 million) of that is going to be from China. When you have two movies in a row that necessarily didn't do gangbusters in China, then I think the people have spoken that the film just doesn't connect with them as much. I'm sure it certainly hurts that Star Wars as a whole is relatively new in China. The way that market works with deciding what foreign films play and for how long is much different from the rest of the world. The highest grossing film ever there, The Mermaid, was released last year but I don't even know if it was even shown outside of eastern Asia. It made basically 99% of its money in China. It's just a much different market and audience than the rest of the world.

    Yes, China is going to be the biggest film market in the world very soon but I don't know if it's worth it for Disney to try to change the backbone or the basis of the movie to play well in China. Like stated above, it could hurt the film in other markets. I don't think Disney is going to or has plans to film a Star Wars movie in China ala Transformers to try to make some money there. They did open up Shanghai Disneyland last year so maybe try to incorporate Star Wars characters to more familiarize people to them.
     
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  22. Dagobah Dragonsnake

    Dagobah Dragonsnake Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 7, 2016
    Disney needs to concentrate on making money in China with other products. Sure it would be nice if China came on board with Star Wars, but considering the type of movies that are the biggest hits in China, without morphing the entire feel of Star Wars into Mad Max on Pandora, it is just not enough of a spectacle for spectacles sake and the cultural history with the OT is simply not there. All Disney can do is assume that there is a certain limited audience for its Star Wars film, and cater to them as best as possible. This also puts more pressure on Disney to knock their future films out of the park in those countries that classically have well received all the Star Wars saga episodes and now RO.

    Changing formula now for the sake of China box office would be a financially poor decision this deep into the resurrection of the movie franchise. Unless for some reason we all decide that Rey's journey needs more Mad Max's Avatar's Fury Parsec.
     
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  23. moreorless12

    moreorless12 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Honestly when it comes to the real top end of the box office I think factors other than the quality of the film play a big part, Titanic had both Leo/Kate and the CGI spectacle, Avatar had 3D and again a shift forward to CGI, TFA had the benefit of the massive SW fanbase coming off a drought plus of course a film that drew on the OT more closely. What made TFA such a monster in other markets simply wasn't there in China due to audiences not having experienced the OT much until recent years. Personal opinion I know but honestly I do kind of agree with a lot of the criticism I'v heard of TFA from the Chinese, on its own merits I don't think its earth shattering cinema.

    I think perhaps the best bet for "cracking china" with SW might be the Han Solo film, potentially that's not going to depend on knowledge/nostalgia for the OT as much and be more of a classic adventure with a charismatic lead character.

    You don't have to break every market though, Jacksons Tolkien films for example never really did that well in Japan which was Potter mad, didn't stop them from being a massive success overall.
     
  24. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Maybe the idea of a group of rebels going against a totalitarian government is not so welcome in China ;)
     
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  25. Tommy-wan

    Tommy-wan Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Aug 15, 2015
    Actually, PT is liked more in China than OT, so no, Jar Jar is not to blame. TFA lacked spectacle the Chinese love very much, causing the audience to get bored pretty quickly (especially considering they have no connection to the old characters). PT had plenty of it, so if anything, the prequels helped...
     
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