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Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

Discussion in 'Anthology' started by AmidalaLover, Dec 26, 2015.

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  1. Tommy-wan

    Tommy-wan Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Aug 15, 2015
    $4 million projected Friday by Deadline. If it holds, a great jump and $14m+ is looking likely for 3-day...
     
  2. Oissan

    Oissan Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    I did not "dismiss the possibility completely", and the answer is as good as anyone can give you. Simply put, TFA wasn't popular in China, and Rogue One didn't fare much better in that regard either. There is absolutely nothing that can be done to change the tastes of different cultures. The OT didn't even really run in China, and while the PT did come out there, China was a tiny market at that point. They basically introduced Star Wars to a wider audience with TFA, and that one fell absolutely flat on its face in China. It was a mix of not really hitting the notes chinese audiences prefer and the misfortune of being the seventh movie in the franchise with plenty of character connections that are completely unknown to the audience. They simply didn't have the knowledge what it all meant, nor had any closer connection to the characters. Rogue One was even worse in that regard, because it bases a lot on things that are virtually unknown to most of China It also had an unfortunate title that made it sound like it was more an alternate universe story.

    Simply put, they aren't going to throw out everything that makes Star Wars, in the vague hope that a completely different thing might work better in China. All they can do, and that is exactly what I mentioned above, is let Rian Johnson do his thing with Episode VIII and hope that his different style is more in line with what chinese audiences like.
     
  3. PPZVGOS

    PPZVGOS Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2015
    Today will be a day long remembered. We have already seen the obliteration of the 2016 North American box-office, and will soon the end of Finding Dory as the year's number one blockbuster!
     
  4. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    Chinese people aren't in movie with story, all they want is action action action like FF or transformer and super heroes movie. A develop bad guys like Kylo doesn't interest them, and i don't think they liked the fat that all character died in RO, and the first half of the story was maybe to slow for them, and the vader scene, they just didn't care about it.
    Is that normal to not have any international uptade since Sunday?
     
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  5. Blue 5

    Blue 5 Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Jan 6, 2017
    Felicity Jones is hosting Saturday Night Live this week. I don't watch it, but will be checking it out this week to support Jyn. I predict slight bumps Monday and Tuesday from what it otherwise would have been.
     
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  6. Talk2Bill

    Talk2Bill Jedi Master

    Registered:
    Mar 26, 2002
    Rogue One is set to pass Finding Dory to take the #1 spot for domestic box office! According to Boxoffice Mojo, Rogue One is 1.2 million behind the animated sequel. I expect it to warp into the #1 spot tonight!
     
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  7. raefinnpoe

    raefinnpoe Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    the end of the fish. the end of her cherished school..........this will be remembered as the last day of finding dory!
    if the 4 million is accurate it will do it easily.

    why is the WW total still at 922? they stop counting international take after sunday?

    edit: a 14 million 3 day guarentees 500 million on MLK day.
     
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  8. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    I would love to believe that Deadline number for Friday but you know these guys. We also know that a 100% increase from Thursday to Friday is more likely as a great bump than even more than that, which would be, what, $3.4M for Friday? So if it hits $4M Friday that's pretty incredible frankly. I would be elated with that. I'd be happy enough with a 100% bump to $3.4M. Deadline can't do math, though, I think we've established that. They don't even guess properly, they literally pull a number right from the butt and call it some official estimate. If Rogue One makes $4M on Friday there is not even 1 chance in 1 million that it makes only $17M for the 4-day weekend. Think about it. What's that going to look like, $4M Friday, $4.5M Saturday and Sunday, and $4M Monday? Also Variety's prediction was similarly bizarre. Historically, Monday performs about like Friday does, which makes sense because while Friday has the 10 p.m. showings much more full since the next day is off, Monday has matinee showings much more full because kids are off. It's basic logic that Monday and Friday when Monday is a day off from school are going to be very similar, with only slight deviation caused more by random chance than anything. Given that a 50% bump on Saturday is at the low end of expectations for any movie, how would it make $4M Friday and only make 4x that for the whole 4-day weekend? It makes no sense.

    If Rogue One actually hits $4M Friday -- a prediction I'm dubious about, frankly -- then it would hit $20M for the 4-day for sure and maybe higher. That would look like: $4-6-6-4 or possibly 4-6.5-6.5-4, something like that. I can certainly believe that it hits $20M for the 4-day, though, as that's my personal expectation. I think there's little else out and I think Rogue One will enjoy strong holds the rest of its run, to varying degrees, with no more larger drops weekend to weekend unless maybe it has theaters massively cut one weekend down the road. That could happen, but TFA was pretty slow and steady by this point and I see the same for Rogue One. Weak competition will help late legs. I noticed Variety today mentioned that Rogue One is "in the same range" as some other new openers at $14-16M and that's another lazy prediction. I don't think there's any way in hell that Rogue One only makes $14M for the 4-day weekend. That's $3.5M per day average and it's already going to hit that Friday, so clearly it's going above that.

    PS: The day has come ladies and gentleman. Finding Dory falls today, and actually as it's almost 10 p.m. on the East Coast so the day is nearly finished, Dory would have already been passed by Rogue One. To celebrate this momentous occasion, as promised, I really celebrated the only way that made sense -- I ate some delicious fish and chips. FISH ARE FOOD, NOT FRIENDS!!!!!

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Gigoran Monk

    Gigoran Monk Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 2, 2016
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. raefinnpoe

    raefinnpoe Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    so officially now any SW theatrical release without 'clones' in the title has ruled the united states box office the year it came out.
     
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  11. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    What happened to 2014?! I mean how did American Sniper win the year? I don't think you'll see another year that pathetic for a LONG time. Look at 2015, 3 movies from that year entered the top 10 of all time (one has since departed). Then in 2016, 2 more movies entered the top 10 of all time. For 2014? Nothing even got remotely close.

    I feel like I was living in a time warp or something with The Dark Knight Rises. I swear that movie was less of a big deal than Batman Begins, I had no idea until today when I looked that it hit nearly $450M. I guess I was projecting my personal disappointment for the movie to its box office gross. I just thought it was like $290M or something, frankly, I guess I had never really bothered to look. Impressive, but I think it coasted on The Dark Knight being such an all-time great film.
     
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  12. raefinnpoe

    raefinnpoe Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    2014 u.s. BO

    1. american sniper 350
    2. hunger games 3 337
    3. guardians of the galaxy 333
    4 CWTWS 259
    5 the lego movie 257

    ok when the lego movie hits the top 5 for the year the year just plain sucks. i mean the lego movie did more then the last hobbit movie did that means the year is bad.

    i actually loved TDKR maybe its the fact krennic's a weasel in that one too.
     
  13. Guidman

    Guidman Skywalker Saga Mod and Trivia Host star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Probably the most shocking thing about American Sniper is that its wide release was in January of 2015. That has to be one of if not the only highest earning film of the year that had a January wide release.Way outside that normal summer or November release corridor. That President's Day weekend record will be something that won't be broken for a really long time. $107 million 4-day weekend. Insane if you think about it.
     
  14. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    I don't think it's a bad movie by any means, not by a long shot, but for me I was like Batman Begins is an A, Dark Knight is an A+, and Dark Knight Rises was a B / B+. So it was still a good movie, and I still enjoy it, but I didn't LOVE it like I did the first two. It has its moments for sure, though.

    I agree with you though, yikes, 2014 was a really off year. I mean I guess the wealth was more spread out, but it's atypical for a movie not to produce one large hit at least. Don't get me wrong, $350M is a very good gross for American Sniper, in fact it's incredible for that type of movie, beyond incredible. But for the #1 movie of the year? It's like holy cow, 2002 called, they want their #1 movie back! With ticket prices what they are, if a movie fails to generate one $400M blockbuster I would call that pretty disappointing.

    For 2017, I would expect these movies have a better than 20% chance of $400M and up to 100% chance:
    -Beauty and the Beast
    -Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
    -Episode VIII

    I would give these movies a fair to excellent chance of $300M or more:
    -Fate of the Furious
    -Thor Ragnorak (fair; I could see $225M for this more likely, but it has a chance)
    -Lego Batman (fair; I am thinking more like $200M to $250M)
    -Wonder Woman (fair; I'm thinking $235M)
    -Justice League (good, I'm thinking $315M)
    -Spider-Man: Homecoming (fair; I'm wondering if audiences are kind of getting sick of Spider-Man reboots, so I'll go with $265M -- great opening, garbage legs)

    Beyond those, I see these further movies having a good shot at $200M:
    -Logan
    -War for the Planet of the Apes
    -Kong: Skull Island
    -Transformers: The Last Knight
    -Pirates 5

    I'm not sure what surprises will await in 2017, I'm sure I missed an animated movie or two that will do $200-300M, because I keep poor track of those films to be honest. I'm more aware of a big Pixar release usually, but even then, not always. The only movie I see on the 2017 list that has any huge upside is Beauty and the Beast to be honest. I just feel like the anticipation for that movie among general audiences is high, people love Emma Watson, and I can absolutely see a $135M OW or something very solid with also remarkable legs like 3.5x or 3.75x legs making it a monster hit. I'm not saying that happens, but if it did, I wouldn't be shocked by any means. It's probably the only movie on the list that I think has the potential to surprise me much. Maybe Fate of the Furious does $375M instead of the $290M I think it will do, but that's meh on my excitement scale for the box office.

    I actually think Episode VIII has a much easier path to #1 this year than TFA did (because of Jurassic World being such a monster) or Rogue One (because we had no idea what to expect from a spinoff and because almost $500M for Finding Dory WAS a lot of money!!). I see a TFA margin of victory for Episode VIII, something like $700M to $420M (second place). I could be wrong, but that's how I see it. I think the margin for error is enormous with Episode VIII this year. It could do barely better than Rogue One numbers and hit $600M and it'll cruise to #1. I wouldn't be shocked if Episode VIII is the highest grossing movie of the year before the year actually ends.
     
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  15. raefinnpoe

    raefinnpoe Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    .and american sniper TFA and R1.......so 3 straight movies that were released in december in the U.S. top the domestic chart for the year. and hopefully a 4th straight in 2017....

    edit: to bowen, think you might be underestmating a few movies. (pirates for example think there will always be a box office for that) and overestimating others (another spiderman reboot? if we rerelease AOTC it might actually beat spiderman this time...)
     
  16. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    I agree but Spider-Man will be hyped enough to make in the $200M range I think. Pirates failed to crack the top 10 most anticipated movies and so did Transformers. Bodes poorly for them both frankly. I could be surprised but I doubt it. I think Pirates makes $250M give or take $25M. Unless it bombs worse than that I guess.

    PS: Last Pirates movie made $241M, any particular reason I should believe this one does better?
     
  17. raefinnpoe

    raefinnpoe Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    i dont know what did the last 'amazing spiderman 54' movie make?

    other then ID4-2 i was pretty spot on on the blockbusters or lack there of this year (in the u.s. anyways) even though im way off on what R1 will make overall thanks to its dissapointing international take........i said i thought if it made 500 domestic it would only need about 600 million to pass CACW WW.

    Well i got the U.S. part right anyways ;)

    my obvious take that potter wasnt going to do squat here came true. i mean its sitting at 11th already and if sing and moana just do a tad more business it will end up 13th.

    and ghostbusters lol.....yeah i pretty much nailed that one 2. did that movie even end up donig WW in 2016 dollars what the original did unadjusted? LMao
     
  18. Guidman

    Guidman Skywalker Saga Mod and Trivia Host star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Great analysis, I think you'll be pretty spot on with a lot of those.

    I'll say this though: I wouldn't be shocked one bit if Beauty and the Beast opens over $150M. Anything up to $160-$165 wouldn't surprise me. No one would have guessed that the trailer for it would have been viewed that many times in 24 hours. The anticipation is really high for this. 25 year build up of one of the most well known and well regarded animated films ever.

    Plus I think if Disney were smart they'd attach a 60-90 second teaser for Episode VIII with it. I know Celebration is a month later and they're for sure releasing one there but there's an opportunity there with Beauty and the Beast too. I mean if they can show a Boss Baby trailer with Rogue One, they can for sure show an Episode VIII trailer with Beauty and the Beast.
     
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  19. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    Hahaha yeah thank god Fantastic Beasts was a nonevent here because it was one of the worst movies I saw last year. I avoided Ghostbusters just like everyone else even though I could have seen it for free. My time is worth more than that though ;)

    Edit: I agree on Beauty and the Beast, it could open very high too but doesn't necessarily need to do so in order to make a huge final total. I think it's a very good bet for 2nd biggest movie of the year. I think Disney wins top 3 movies of the year (again). Lol.
     
  20. raefinnpoe

    raefinnpoe Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    is the EP8 BO thread open yet?

    if it is do they have us finishing behind beauty and the beast or spiderman? ;)
     
  21. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    As a Star Wars fan it puts a smile on your face to think that in ten years when looking at the all time domestic list top 20 haf of those films will wind up being Star Wars movies. Disney got themselves a bargain by only having to pay 4 billion for this franchise.
     
  22. Black Star Gunner

    Black Star Gunner Jedi Master star 2

    Registered:
    Oct 18, 2014

    You're crushing that fish all while wearing a Star Wars shirt. Bravo, Bowen, bravo! And I'm glad to see you've reached your viewing teens (and climbing). You'll most likely surpass me soon, as work has slowed me down a lot, and although I have 18 under my belt, I honestly will only make it out 2 more times (with tickets already). It was a super hard '20' overall as all but two of those viewings were in 3D (a real test of my loyalty)!
     
  23. Oissan

    Oissan Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Deadline now says 3.3m for Friday, quite a bit below their earlier number, but definately more in line with what was realistic.

    That would mean 500m will be crossed on Monday, the 32nd day of release, the same time as Avatar.
     
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  24. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    That's right, 32 days for $500M, that'd be nice. That's really the final major milestone I would say, besides making beating TDK that would certainly be nice.

    I have to say I was hoping for more like $3.5M optimistically, though as I said earlier not believing $4M at all, didn't make sense as a rise from Thursday. I just got back from Viewing #15. It was treacherous. Speaking of testing your loyalty, I couldn't help but spend a lot of time tonight thinking what a crazy, crazy die-hard I am, and I'm not even sure that's a good thing. I drove 16 miles downtown to see Rogue One in the last IMAX theater showing it here since my local theater that's about 6 miles away switched to La La Land. I just assumed that since the roads have been well plowed and taken care of around me (though you still have to go slower than usual), it would be the same or better downtown. Boy, I couldn't have been more wrong. If you didn't know anything about this place, you'd assume I lived in some amazing upscale city and that Portland was a complete ghetto without any funds to fix their roads. It felt like off-roading. I don't know if it's seriously because the roads themselves are that poorly taken care of, though I remember that being an issue too, but combined with a sheet of ice and sleet covering all city roads (they didn't seem to do anything about them...) it meant going about 5 miles per hour when I hit downtown between the freeway and the theater. It took 45 minutes to get there, when it would usually be about 30. Even driving home, which should have been 26 minutes supposedly, took another 45 minutes. All in all it's kind of brutal to spend nearly 4 hours to see a movie that's actually only barely over 2 hours long.

    This weekend is shaping up to be a complete train wreck for the other movies in release. Whatever Rogue One does really only matters to die-hard fans at this point. It's already a massive success to say the least. The other movies, however, don't have it so nice. They're struggling for any sort of life whatsoever as it looks like a massive disaster for them all without exception. It's just which one is the biggest bomb, really.

    I will be curious to see what the Saturday increase for Rogue One looks like. Following TFA's pattern I think you get around $13.6M for the weekend, which is above Deadline's estimate. I don't know why they'd base any estimate on something other than TFA as it seems the best possible movie to use, especially given Rogue One followed TFA's Thursday to Friday jump pretty closely.

    I keep thinking it seems logical that Rogue One will slow its declines a good deal, simply because there's not much else out doing any real business, but it seems the entire box office is kind of struggling so far. I guess it is what it is. I was seeing TFA in late March last year, but I suspect just because it opened smaller and of course is making less at the same time, I'll probably not be able to see Rogue One in March in a traditional theater. It'll probably end its primary run sometime in later February. I do have a dollar theater incredibly close to where I live, though, but my Ultimate Pass doesn't work on that. It literally costs $1 to see a movie on Mondays and $4.75 the other days, so maybe I'd sneak in for a Monday showing at the discount theater if that's what it comes to ha ha.
     
  25. PPZVGOS

    PPZVGOS Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2015
    I think people are massively underestimating 3 movies that come out next year.

    Spiderman, which I see passing the $300M for sure, maybe even $400M. Remember, its has Iron Man in it, as well as Michael Keaton.

    Justice League. DC movies for all their negative press have great potential since DC characters are even better known than Marvel's, and if the movie is any good, it will push to the upside of expectations. I can see it in the $300M to $400M range, especially if it clicks.

    Also, Thor: Ragnarok. This is much more than Thor 3. It will also have Hulk in it (as a gladiator) plus some awesome supporting cast with Cate Blanchett as Hela, Jeff Goldblum, Karl Urban, and Dr Strange. This has massive potential, and can even upend Justice League, depending on audience reception. I can see it breaking the $300M club easily.
     
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