Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

Two may be TOO much. One a year sounds good and maybe even after they could do one every two years to truly make Star Wars a special event. Disney is obviously trying to get a return on their investment ASAP.

 

It really depends on who and what they make the movies about. Without the "Legacy" EU there is so much ground to be explored. Ewan McGregor would still play Pre-ANH Obi-Wan. There is Han's backstory (or at least stories). There is Post RotS Vader. So many minor movie characters. Many former EU characters could be resurrected, though made to fit the new continuity.

 

Oh there is solo much. True. Where would you even begin?

I do hope at some point they bring back Thrawn. or at least someone who embodies that kind of thinking. I suppose maybe Hux does but he seems to in your face to be Thrawn.

And yes, Ewan in a Obi-Wan anthology trio of films please.

In fact, I would love to see the spinoffs from all of the timeline.

 

I agree.

 

TFA had the benefit of being the first SW film in 12 years, and the first one with the original cast in 30+ years. So there was a certain novelty/anticipation factor that helped (the prospect of seeing Mark, Carrie, and Harrison again on film in these roles again and all that). Also, it had a great marketing campaign.

So no, IDK that this will be a big as TFA. If it cracks $1 billion, I'll be pleasantly surprised. BUT, I don't necessarily think that it has to as I have a feeling that the budget won't be as big as TFA was. And look at Marvel, most of their films (The Avengers and IM 3 excluded) don't crack the billion-mark, but they're still considered to be highly successful financially. A $600 to 800 million haul is not unreasonable I think, and that'd probably be pretty darn successful.

 

Good point. The Episodic films will most likely be like The Avengers films and gross a billion plus.

 

Seeing how Mad Max: Fury Road only grossed just over $375 million world wide I would be very happy with a very good movie that didn't break $400 million. I mean, TPM made just over $1 Billion (in 1999 dollars) and it was poodoo. With the Spin-Off/Anthology/Whatever movies I'm far more worried about quality than how much that drag in at the box office.

 

You mean 10 years right? ROTS came out in 2005.

 

One the flip side its also Star Wars. If any other franchise like Harry Potter, Marvel, DC, etc took a ten year break they would probably be forgotten. Star Wars is a pop culture phenomenon. The name alone will probably draw people to the theater. It really depends on how much audiences wants to see how the Rebels got the Death Star plans. Will nostalgia alone draw droves of people to the theaters like TFA? Do people just want to see EP VII and don't care about anything else?

 

Once they show an actual teaser trailer in Comic Con the focus will turn from TFA to Rogue One! I'm sure the teaser will be well done. Just like the first teaser of the Tie flying through the canyon and culminating at the Death Star! Once we get actual footage of the movie everyone will start salivating once again. Who Knows maybe this movie will be even bigger than TFA!...How ever unlikely!

Just Remember how you felt when you saw this:

Removed. No bootlegs allowed.

 

So the teaser is officially being released at Comic Con?

 

I Don't know for sure, But it makes perfect sense that it would. Either there or at Star Wars Celebration!

 

Rogue One has been named the most anticipated movie of 2016 by Fandango users. Will this translate into a large box office gross?

 

Yes, this is something I've thought about a lot. I think there will be "casual" moviegoers that will be confused. Especially now, considering how much of a phenomenon TFA is at the moment. Let's also not forget that the lead in Rogue One is a young British female. I can hear people like my Mom saying, "oh, is that Rey?" I took her to TFA, she loved it, she's always been "familiar " with the overall story and history and she texted me a couple days, later, "Who played Obi Wan Kanobi (sic) in this Star Wars?" I questioned her, confused, and she responded, "Who was the older guy in the movie? He kind of looked like him." She was referring to MVS.

We'll just have to see how Disney promotes it, but regardless, casual moviegoers will be confused. Not to mention many big blockbusters (Twilight, Hunger Games, The Hobbit trilogy, etc) have sequels and continuing chapters just a year apart. It will be even more interesting when this fall hits and they're somehow going to have to find a way to not only promote Rogue One, but Episode 8, which opens just 5 months later.

 

I feel like they'll make a point of clarifying the timeline the marketing. Like perhaps slapping the OG Death Star on the official poster, or reusing some of Vader's dialogue from ANH about the DS plans being stolen in the trailer, or even Vader himself, etc.

Plus the fact that Rey, Finn, Kylo, Poe, etc will be nowhere to be seen in the marketing should be a pretty big clue that this is something different.

 

I think too many people underestimate the "casual audience". It seems everyone is assuming that people who don't obsess over SW like us won't be able to understand the difference between these films. Even if I were a casual fan I'd be able to tell the difference.

 

True point. It's really up to how they promote it.

 

I think it will make at least a billion worldwide, but I really have no idea. I hope it does well though so we keep getting more spin-offs.

 

It willl make considerable money but nowhere near as much as TFA

 

It's almost certain it will do well.

 

Like TFA, Rogue One will have the advantage of Christmas and NYE falling on weekends. Do you think it will be the #1 movie of 2016?

How high do you think it'll go?

Of course alot rides on whether the film is good but I expect huge numbers regardless.

 

I believe that this film will be a sucess, but in TFA style? I don't know....

 

Oh yeah, this'll make a killer. But not TFA numbers, no movie can with the hype that had. But I can easily see a 150-200 million OW. Maybe a tad more if they market this right, do some more events like another Force Friday.

 

dolphin
thanks for starting the thread.

The 2016 holiday calendar isn't as advantageous as the 2015 calendar. Christmas and New Year's Eve are typically terrible days for moviegoing. This year, they both fall on Saturdays, so it's like a wrecking ball through the middle of those weekends. Obviously, I don't believe that all money lost on those Saturdays won't be made up elsewhere. But everything was lined up for TFA in a way that won't be the case for Rogue One.

However, TFA was a huge event film, and I think a lot of general moviegoers will be excited about sort of reliving that experience this coming Christmas. Rogue One will have a big opening weekend. Maybe $150 million or more. Maybe close to $200 million again. We know now that audiences will show up for a movie on the last shopping weekend before Christmas if it's the right movie. No excuses there. I don't think it will have the same level of anticipation as TFA. No $100 million in advance ticket sales this time. No $57 million Thursday preview.

It will be a bit more sedate this time around. Everyone will know they're not getting the new saga cast or the OT cast. The nostalgia factor will be low. And on the plus side. We know that Star Wars sells. We know the power of the brand is still fantastic. We know that good will for the brand is running high after TFA.

 

Probably need a thread merge

http://boards.theforce.net/threads/rogue-one-box-office-discussion.50036621/