Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

thank you! I don't think I have any quarrels with anyone about TLJ's box office potential. Last I checked, I'm about where Bowen is on both the domestic and foreign box office take of TLJ. Should be a good discussion.

 

HAHA, Rylo I hope you realize though how ridiculous your post came across. I personally -- for various reasons having read so many of your posts -- believe you're a very smart guy, but that's kind of the problem. When I KNOW you're smart, and you write posts like that, it makes me think you're trolling and I don't like that conclusion either. To call Rogue One a huge disappointment at the box office, and ask how Disney will deal with the fallout, and how somehow (?!) Rogue One isn't on par with Marvel's B-squad, despite beating Doctor Strange handily, then clearly you're talking about how Avengers Lite (Captain America: Civil War) that let me remind you included a bunch of other Marvel characters made more money only internationally and wasn't marginally close domestic. It would not just be fair to say but it would be a fact that Disney brought home more money on Rogue One than they did on Civil War, you know that too. CW made $190M in China and $408M in the States, which means Rogue One's money came from more favorable markets (China is the worst market for distribs as they only get about 25% of the gross). Why would Disney be at all bummed out having all of the biggest hits of the year?! I am sure Rogue One performed just as well as any internal expectations.

I'm disappointed that anyone cannot understand how $530 million for a spin-off film with virtually none of the main characters is an incredibly impressive gross. We may have taken it for granted because TFA blew the doors off, but that's the power of the Star Wars brand. I would say its power is at the moment "limitless." Very few movies have ever hit $500M and Rogue One was one of them.

It has been a fun discussion overall in this box office thread, I will be sad to see it go, although I think the negativity specifically by Rylo has made it tougher for me to enjoy posting here the past 6 weeks or so. I have no problem with disagreement and discourse but numbers that are already decided and already enormous don't need a dose of negativity heaped upon them. You would honestly think we're talking about a movie that made $227 million stateside and $500 million worldwide, in which case there would be room for negativity and positivity. But man, I imagine if Rylo was there on the Fantastic Beasts / HP forum, he'd be talking about what a horrible bomb Fantastic Beasts was and how it's unlikely they'll even bother making the final movies at this rate. Heck, they may even not release the movie to home video because what's the point?! Nobody would buy it.

Anyway, to the other posters, all of you guys, it has been a fun time with Rogue One and I guess this more or less closes the book on this chapter of Star Wars as its theatrical run also winds down. I won't be around the forums much probably because these are a few of my go to threads, so I just wanted to say I'll catch you around in The Last Jedi box office thread. Whenever that is started, let me know, and I'll appear. There won't be too much to discuss yet but we'll get there. I hope everyone has a great year and a great summer, fun with the home video release, and May the Force Be With You! Even you, Rylo

 

I don't see how anyone can claim that Star Wars is being beaten globally by 2nd tier Marvel films when Rogue One came in at #2 and Doctor Strange only made it to #11.

Edit: Another way to look at it: top tier Star Wars beats top tier Marvel, which in turn beats 2nd tier Star Wars, which it turn beats 2nd tier Marvel. That's where the evidence is pointing right now.

 

I think of Dr Stange as third string - at least we don't have to argue here about how awful that movie was. Like a poor man's Hellboy. Sheesh.

Anyway. It will be interesting to see how many movies this year have bigger international totals than R1 and even TLJ. I wouldn't bet against TLJ in the US for top movie of the year. Globally and internationally it could be interesting.

 

I really am hesitant to compare totals across time due to fluctuations with exchange rates. We can only really discuss each year in terms of rankings, IMHO.

 

Bowen, you can always step out of this thread and just chat about the movies. Just chat without numbers.

 

Look at Harry Potter: the main films all made it to the top five worldwide, except for Azkaban at #6. Fantastic Beasts couldn't even crack the top ten.

Rogue One making it to #2 worldwide, and #1 in many foreign markets, is huge. Let's not downplay this.

 

But Star Wars should beat Marvel. It's by far the biggest brand in the world. It may no longer be 1977-1983 when Star Wars "ruled the universe" but it's still the biggest kid in the block. I mean Rogue One vs Doctor Strange is really not a comparison since Star Wars plays it's own games. Doctor Strange did fine for what it was. An origin story of a very little known character outside of comic-world. That should not be compared to a Star Wars film even if it's a spinoff anthology flick.

Don't get me wrong. Rogue One having a $500/1 billion+ split is fantastic especially when you factor what some other films did last year namely Batman vs Superman. But again this is kind of expected. Star Wars should be jaugernaut at the box office. And this year should be a slaughter at the box office for Star Wars. Other then B&tB, I really don't see anything with it. There are some big movies coming out this year. B&tB, Furious 8, GOTG 2, Pirates 5 (especially since it's being touted as the last one though I doubt it, need that ride to continue being a top attraction at the Magic Kingdom), Spidey, Wonder Woman, Justice League etc. They should do some really big business. And yet once TLJ comes out, they should all be stomped into submission LOL!

It will be really interesting to watch the box office this upcoming year. See how it is trending leading up to The Last Jedi. We had the earth shattering year of 2015 lead by TFA and Jurassic World but overall? The movie houses are simply not what they are which has been discussed on here a lot. You got your tentpoles carrying more and more weight each year. Perhaps with movies like Get Out, Split and Hidden Features doing very well maybe more surprises will do well at the box office. But my guess? Doubt it. I think this is kind of a blip in the radar and by the year's end we will be looking at the big tentpoles carrying even more weight as more movies often with big budget are just duds.

 

In an absolute sense? Why? We're talking about a very different global market to 1977.

As I've said before, Rogue One topped out the Anglosphere and many other European countries, where it indeed is the biggest brand. But Civil War--a top tier Marvel title--beating a Star Wars spinoff doesn't tell us that Marvel is bigger overall. All it tells us is that when factoring in places like China, Star Wars has strong competition in the global market... from another brand owned by Disney.

 

Again, R1 did not perform #1 WW just because Disney did not market it enough.

We just had Hugh Jackman doing a round of talk shows and interviews in our air TV, cable and popular Youtube channels. For Rogue One, not even the set janitor came here.

There are posters of Logan in buses, everywhere. Rogue One didn't.

So being #2 WW without marketing, just shows how strong the Star Wars brand is. People did not even understood the time line, yet they still put good $ on it. Maybe not as much as they could.

 

It's still Star Wars. It's still the biggest/most known brand with the biggest and most devot fanbase. It should beat Marvel and any other rivals. Maybe not in the margins again we saw from 1977-1983 but still the biggest kid on the block should always win. DC and Marvel IMHO should never catch Star Wars. Can get that closer? Yes absolutely but they will never be bigger then Star Wars unless Disney messes up big time and I think despite some of their efforts (namely with the new EU), their is too much talent and investment to let that happen.

Ricardo Funes

Disney did not overhype Rogue One for two reasons:

1. They are concerned about Star Wars fatigue because frankly we are not used to so many Star Wars used coming out. We are going to get 3 SW movies within 18 month period. It used to take five years for us to get 3 SW movies LOL! So they are making sure that they do not oversaturate the medium with too much media. THG did that with MockingJay Part 1 and they never recovered.
2. Disney knew this movie would not play that great with causual fans especially overseas so why throw bad money after it? Rogue One was for the diehard fan which is partly I find a $500/1 billion+ split just incredible. Out of all the known Star Wars movies so far, this was the one that definitely was made for the diehard, not the casual fan. Han Solo IMHO should play much better to the causal fan. Ironically it's the movie I am least excited for so far LOL!

 

I'm obviously not getting the point. No Marvel film should ever beat a Star Wars film? Why? It's not a law of nature.

 

Of course a good Pixar flick kills them all.
No, I have no numbers to back that up.

 

Sad that the thread is being locked, but at least I won't have to read this recycled opinion on a daily basis.

 

The truth is, Star Wars may or may not still king--we don't have enough data yet. But we also don't have nearly enough data to say that Marvel trumps Star Wars globally. It could easily be the case that Star Wars trumps Marvel, and Civil War beating Rogue One is just due to noise in the system.

 

Do you really think that Marvel has more diehard fans then Star Wars to say nothing of casual fans?? No way and it's not even close. Star Wars cuts across more demos then any other franchise out there and again it's hardcore fan base makes MCU and WBEU look like the Vienna Boys Choir LOL!. Like I always tell people, just look at your parents for reference. My parents might go see a Marvel movie in the theater here and there if it catches there eye. My dad likes Iron Man so they seen all of those in the theater and they seen I believe most of the Captain America moves in the theaters. But basically that is it. Out of the 14 MCU movies that come out since 2008, they seen maybe about half of them in the theater. Meanwhile they seen every live action movie of Star Wars in the theaters including Rogue One. They are also in their mid-seventies who were fifties kids....not exactly the hard core space opera fan LOL! Unless it's a very odd situation aka 2002, Star Wars flicks should always be on top at the box office, at least domestically. I be surprised honestly if Avengers 3 beat out Han Solo though I am still believing Han Solo gets moved especially since Avatar 2 is not happening come December 2018.

 

Well, domestically, Rogue One was #1. The debate here is about whether it being #2 worldwide is some harbinger of doom.

It'd say, no. It suggests that Star Wars is a massive global brand that sits at the top. The only question is over whether or not it's pipped by Marvel, and on that count, it's too early to tell.

 

I really see no scaniro where that happens. Star Wars is too engrained into pop culture for that too happen. Again the number of diehard and casual fans dwarfs anything Marvel can muster. And overall, Disney is doing a good job grabbing the younger generation. Rebels is a big hit with the kiddies along with of course TFA. Rogue One didn't play as well with the kiddies but as it's been discussed on here, it wasn't really made for kids. My kids haven't still seen it despite being diehard SW fans. It's too instense. So unless Disney really messes up, this always stay this way. Will there be oddities like 2002 where Star Wars winds up 2nd or even 3rd at the box office? Yes it is possible but really it will be shocking to see Star Wars not in the top spot almost every year.

 

For sure, and I love talking about Star Wars, but it seems like I'm probably a bit different than many (most?) Star Wars fans in that I don't actually find it more fun to talk about the future than to talk about the past. In other words, I like to discuss the movies and what we have, the connections between them, various themes, mythology, observations, etc. I feel like this forum is practically dead, sometimes going hours between posts, because most of the frequent posters prefer to discuss The Last Jedi. We don't even have a trailer for that movie yet, so there's quite literally nothing to discuss whatsoever. Whatever we could discuss about it was, in my mind, already discussed on the TFA forum directly after seeing the movie. People talked about their hopes for the future, where things were going, who are Rey's parents, etc. There's nothing yet new to discuss and yet somehow people will find endless ways to talk about it. I think for a lot of Star Wars fans, they almost prefer the hype and the anticipation to the actual movies themselves as experiences. Almost like they'll spend years talking about what a movie should or will be like, then they go watch it a few times in theaters and it's on to the next thing. I don't want to live my life that way. Every time I catch myself for instance taking my home for granted, I try to remember how much hard work it was just to get this place exactly how I wanted it, and how fortunate I am to have such a nice home (even if there are better ones by far out there). I feel the same with Star Wars. I'm not going to say goodbye to Rogue One as an experience until I have to do so. For now, I'm still enjoying it in theaters, don't want to be thinking or talking about TLJ, and that will begin to change once I see a trailer. Then probably Last Jedi is about all I will focus on until the next thing. I just want to take it all in, as it comes, and enjoy it, not always be looking ahead to the future, "never his mind on where he is, hmm, what he is doing!" lol.

I am sure I'll poke around the forum from time to time, but it's good to take a little break sometimes between movies and get all geared up again.

I would say my only disappointment with Rogue One at the box office was on the international side. On the domestic side, which is all that I really feel qualified to discuss on an expert level, I really couldn't be much happier. Did I think it was possible for Rogue One to hit $550M after its first few weeks of holiday box office? Yes, I did. I thought it was headed to more like $550-575M at one point, depending on holds. But what did I expect going into the movie's run? I thought it would get past $500M and take #1 from Dory, but I wasn't sure about it, and it was definitely something I was nervous about happening. I feel like on the domestic side it was a fantastic run and really impressive stuff. Each foreign country was its own story. I think it's unfair to the diversity of cultures and countries out there to lump everything into "foreign" and "domestic" anyway. It makes sense as a Hollywood bookkeeper, I guess, but it makes no sense as a fan. You can find a bunch of countries where Rogue One did amazingly well, another group it performed like a solid blockbuster, another group with a more middling level of success, and a handful where it didn't really connect compared to other big films. That's another reason I don't really comment much on worldwide or foreign box office totals because I'd have to understand the exchange rates from every country, the local economy at the time, tastes for that culture, the marketing job Disney did, etc. I feel like it's enough hard work following every detail of the American box office and being an educated commentator on that. I'll leave the foreign / worldwide commentary for others, suffice to say I still think the worldwide total was quite nice.

I don't think Star Wars really has anything to prove when it comes to showing the biggest franchise overall worldwide, though. There's only one franchise that has a movie above $2 billion and that's Star Wars. Until Avatar has a sequel, it's not a franchise, it's just a movie. And they're not making a Titanic 2 to my knowledge

 

Marvel has a much bigger foothold in places like China--that's the catch. Civil War earned 50% more than TFA, for example. So the question then becomes, does the success of Star Wars in territories where it is a well-known brand offset its relative struggles against Marvel in some developing markets?

 

Or can Star Wars ever get more of a foothold in China? To me, Rogue One gave a resounding "no." They didn't seem to understand TFA, they didn't care about Rogue One, so what would make The Last Jedi any different? I expect a mediocre gross from TLJ out of China. I would be shocked with anything much above $100M and not shocked at all by something like $65M. I just am not sure what Disney can do about that, except to hope that one day things change or just kind of forget about it, not worry about it. Star Wars will have its key markets most likely in North America and Europe for the most part. I don't think South America or Asia have ever been overly strong markets for the franchise. I remember when Titanic tore it up in Brazil and I think TPM seriously made about 8 times less money in that market, despite doing so well overall in most places.

 

You aren't missing much by not looking into the Rey Lineage thread going right now.

 

As somebody who is a lifelong fan of both Marvel and Star Wars, I'm very happy that both are doing so well.

Star Wars is ingrained into society, that's absolutely true. But Marvel has been around since the 60s and Cap has been with us since the late 30s, early 40s, (under an earlier incarnation of Marvel). Marvel is a huge part of the culture. I would defy anybody who doesn't agree that Spidey is more iconic than any single Star Wars character.

That being said, I love Marvel with all my heart. I still read their comics at the age of 43.

But Star Wars? Star Wars is my religion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Spidey vs. Darth Vader? Hard to say. I'd guess that Superman and Batman are stiffer competition than Spidey.

 

I agree with your point except that Spiderman is more iconic than any single Star Wars character. Darth Vader is easily more iconic than Spiderman. Luke, Han, Leia, Chewie, R2, and 3P0 are all at least just as iconic.