Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

obviously you dont know what the term bomb means. warcraft has made over 430 million dollars on a budget of 160. Pacific Rim WHICH IS GETTING A SEQUEL, made 411 million on a budget of 190 million; which means it cost more to make and made less money than warcraft and has a sequel greenlit. just to keep things in perspective. you got to add in game sales, dvd sales, and other merchandise sales especially in china.

 

Compared to 2011 and 2014, this year has been damn good for the Box Office.

 

if your hoping on sequals and you make 400 mllion off a 160 billion budget that doesnt include marketing or advertising then thats a freaking bomb i dont care what anyone says.

 

wow...........just wow.
no vader but that was awesome imo.

 

I say the Box Office for R1 will be DOM 550M and WW 1.1B

 

Yes but it's the same movies (comic books and animated movies) which are doing the heavy lifting.

Ghostbusters made a few million in Thursday evening she sings and could cross $50 million this weekend but unless it has some incredible legs it's going to be a overall dud for Sony since this was their big movie of the year. Pets should win this week again (massive blow to Ghostbusters) and should be at over $200 million domestically by end of business day Sunday. Sony must rally wondering what they are doing going forward. Because the reviews for Ghostbusters weren't bad. 71% on RT. Not great but certainly other franchises like Transformers and some superhero movies have done more with a lesser score. I think they just made every mistake possible along the way. From premise (a total reboot when the originals set up perfectly for a Quasi-sequel) all the way through ramp up media campaign. Sony needs to make heads roll and just start over as a studio. This is the group that messed up Spiderman and now Ghostbusters.

Rogue One footage was great btw. I'm honestly more excited for that then Episode VIII because it's truly a different type of Star Wars film. I am just curious how many general audiences will go see it. Don't get me wrong a ton will just how will compare it to TFA? My guess a significantly minority will skip therefore the number $450 million keeps popping in my head for domestic gross.

 

Movie goers are declaring in a loud voice that there are franchises that they have absolutely no need to continue and absolutely no desire to see any other movies. This has been the case in the past couple of years. Ghostbusters, Alice, ID4, TMNT, Fantastic Four, Terminator...they've all been completely shut down. For some other franchises, fans have said "okay, we're getting tired and unless you do something fantastic, we'll be shutting these down too". Those include Spiderman, Transformers, Batman/Superman, and X Men. Their most recent films have done fairly well but not enough to sustain interest barring something really great.

In other words, sequels are not necessarily the way to go for everything. Star Trek 3 looks a bit different than the other 2 and it may pay off fairly well. But the scope and range of sequel successes are becoming rather narrow. The problem is that there haven't been any NEW film ideas that have really caught on either unless it's animated (Inside Out, Zootopia and Pets are the most successful originals in the past year). Originals like Tomorrowland and BFG have crashed and burned SO badly that there's a fear to do something new also. It's like music. When was the last time we've seen a musical trend take the mainstream by storm the way teh Beatles, psychodelic rock, disco, 80's techno, grunge and alternative, hip hop and rap did in their time?

 

First reviews for Star Trek Beyond are up. 88% on RT which is right in line with ST 09 & STID.

 

BFG is not original at all. It's based on a Roald Dahl book. Tomorrowland flopped because it was awful.

 

all those movies jedijax mentioned are awful.

when the sequal is great it makes 2 billion dollars. lol

 

When will the trailer be released online?

 

$350 mil US/Canada, $1.05 billion worldwide.

 

BFG is one of my favorite children's books ever. I ADORED it when I read it on third grade. The film didn't catch on because it looked like it was filled with soulless CGI and a child actor against a green screen. Whether the film is great or not (I haven't seen it) doesn't matter because that's what they were selling.

ID4 failed because, frankly, outside of Goldblum the film looked awful. The two Hemsworths have their franchises. Hunger games and Thor respectively. Sadly, they're complete and total failures outside of that.

A lot of the films coming out aren't doing well because they frankly just don't look good. There is a lot of cynicism in Hollywood right now, and it shows in their films and the way they market them.

 

i guess what i liked most about the R1 Footage i saw last night is it truly makes it look like the war movie being advertised. oh and the stormtroopers walking out of the water. that was just.........creepy?

 

I have no intention of seeing Suicide Squad whatever its numbers will be. Frankly just seeing the trailer about 3x already at the thither bored me to tears.
Rogue One IMO gets $700m domestic/1.3m worldwide I have zero worries about it doing really well.

 

Opening weekend: $125m
Domestic total: $375m
Worldwide total: $825m

The marketing for this movie is balls.

 

yeah i remember people thought the marketing for TFA was 'balls' right until the monday night football trailer.

on the flip side of the coin, if rouge one somehow makes 700 million domestic the typical SW domestic/foriegn split would put its forigent take around 800 million.......and i dont think. 1.5 billion is anymore realistic then 800 million.

now granted i have loved every SW trailer or behind the scenes peak i have ever seen, other then the 'fobidden romance' trailer for AOTC, (dont think i need to explain why on that one) but i dont get how anyone who saw what i saw on abc last night could be dissapointed or wary of this movie. and the people that say they saw the clip teasing vader, i really dont get it.

 

Other then Rogue One, that is the movie I am movie that I am most looking forward to. It looks like GOTG meets The Joker & Co. How bleeping cool is that?!!?

And Rogue One making $700 million will be more of a shock then TFA crossing $900 million domestically.

Finding Dory will be $445 million domestically by end of business day Sunday. $450 million is a lock along with most likely $475 million. Question does it cross $500 million domestically? It's going to be a long slog but I still think it's possible. The new Ice Age movie is getting panned so while it will take some numbers from FD it won't take a ton. Also Ghostbusters is still tracking $46 million OW. Again it cannot be seen as anything but a disappointment. ST Beyond is up next followed by JB. Both should do nice business but I really think Suicide Squad will be the next big thing.

 

ghostbusters opening is as bad as tarzans basically (and tarzans was still better then expected)

secret life of pets over 200 million. tarzan now over a 100. shallows over 50.

luke02 i really have no idea how you can reasonably see FD crossing 500 million at this point......445 off an 11 million dollar weekend so expect maye a 5 or 6 million dollar weekend next weekend.....the numbers just dont add up.

 

No way R1 is making $700 million domestically. I know I was wrong when I said that about TFA, but with R1 I think it's reasonable to say it won't hit that number. I think $400 million-ish is very fair.

Suicide Squad has a pretty good shot at hitting $300 million. Not guaranteed but it has been the most hyped movie of the summer other than FD. The GOTG comparisons are certainly fair. It's certainly darker and that could fare a little better for teens and college kids while deterring younger audiences.

And despite low overall numbers, I think that Tarzan is a bit of a surprise this summer.

 

I just gave you numbers for pacific rim 1 and that movie is getting a sequel so that does not make a movie a bomb, it might have under performed but not bomb. here is another example, the tom cruise movie edge of tomorrow only made 371 million WW on a budget of 180 million and it is also getting a sequel bc it also made good money with on demand and dvd sales. studios dont green lit 100 million dollar sequels for bombs. big budget movies that truly bomb fade away until they get remade, I guarantee we wont get another alice in wonderland in the tim burton vain (disney will eventually reboot Alice bc the story is timeless though) and we def will never see a BFG sequel unless the overseas markets perform a miracle bc it is making no money. those are big budgeted movies that truly bombed. BVS, Warcraft, and other movies similar under performed but did not bomb.

 

I totally disagree with you on the rouge one numbers but I do agree with you when it comes to Tarzan, that is a movie that I thought would truly bomb on an epic level and it continues to churn along and will most likely break even or make a small profit

 

ok let me just say, if you make a movie on a 180 million dollar budget, and you make 360 million dollars WW on the movie, and then your making a sequal (or more) on about the same budget, then you basically broke even.

must be nice that you can throw money away on sequals to a movie not many people went to in the first place. yeah home video sales, i remember marcy on married with children made a joke about last action hero being saved by it........nope it still bombed anyways.

i never said B V S bombed, (it underpefomed) in fact it made more WW then ID4-2 and warcraft made WW COMBINED.........even still as launching a new franchise about all it did was get people excited for the wonder woman stand alone. justice league as a whole? i guess we'll see.

btw disney spent 4 billion dollars to buy lucasfilm, put 5 movies into pre production and spent 250-400 million dollars budget on TFA. so if TFA came out and made Warcraft numbers WW that wouldnt be a bomb?

as for rogue one i feel like im living in an alternate universe..........people were not impressed by that footage?

 

So this year has definitely been a disappointing one for many box-office blockbusters, considering the hype and marketing activities placed on them... With several noticeable letdowns including BvS, ID: Resurgence, Warcraft, Ghostbusters, Alice Through The Looking Glass, and X-Men Apocalypse... Compare this with 2015 - with FIVE movies crossing the $1 billion threshold (TFA, JW, FF7, Age of Ultron, and Minions)!

Still, there are some other long-awaited movies that we can look forward to during the second half of this year, including some of these (hopefully) potential success stories:
- Suicide Squad (potentially the second Deadpool-like unexpected hit of the year)
- Jason Bourne (looking forward to the return of Matt Damon)
- Snowden
- Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
- Moana

And last but not least... What else but ROGUE ONE?

 

yes divd sales do count as well as word of mouth. folks didnt make edge of tomorrow a huge hit in theaters but it made a lot of money with dvd sales here is a figure for it
http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Edge-of-Tomorrow#tab=summary. So a studio is willing to roll the dice bc the first one did find an audience on dvd and the critics loved it. the might lower the budget some to offset the risk, but its risk worth taking. Pacific Rim did even better in dvd sales here is its numbers http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Pacific-Rim#tab=summary.

Like I said movie studios make money a lot of different ways, not just with box office receipts. such as dvd sales, product placement inside of a movie aka tom cruise uses an Iphone or drives a beamer in a movie that company paid to be in that said movie. thats why transformers is a walking talking ad for Budweiser bc budweiser paid an arm and leg to be in that movie . Mcdonalds and other Fast food chains pay to license stuff for happy meals. heck papa johns paid a lot of money to a studio to make commercials ft slimer from ghostbusters. A percentage of money made off of t-*****, video games, action figures etc.. go to the studio.

as a last note comparing icons such as star wars, superman and batman WW box office to warcraft or ID2 is not really fair, its like comparing a steak house that been around for a 100 yrs and got awards for having the best steaks around, to a steak you got on sale at publix. are they both steaks sure but you expect more from the one place over the other. I really doubt the studios were expecting to make near a billion dollars for warcraft, in fact I bet they are pleased that it truly over performed in china where I bet the dvd sales of it will be through the roof. when the sequel does come, I bet they will be happy if they can get it to just a 100 million for the USA.

As far as rogue one goes as a star wars fan I thought the video was great, as for getting the message out to the general audience it was very lack luster, when the force awakens trailer came out it was trending everywhere, rogue one has vanished already. I showed my mom the BTS footage of rouge one and her being a casual fan said who are these people; where is rey, finn, and luke. I had to tell her that this was a prequel and really explain where it fit in the time line. She got it but the first words out her mouth after that was, why are they making more prequels, I thought everyone hated the prequels. lol