Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

The weekend-constellation isn't anything close to as good as it was for TFA. On the contrary, it is probably the worst December-schedule you can have.

You start off the the weekend 16/17/18th, followed by a whole week of normal weekdays, with christmas only arriving by the weekend. This already means that the week will not see nearly as many people be off from school or work as the comparable week in 2015, which saw christmas arriving mid-week. Following that, you have the weakest day of the holiday period (christmas eve) fall on the biggest day of the week (Saturday), which "ruins" that day due to a lack of evening shows. Comparably, TFA had christmas eve on Thursday, which is usually the weakest day of the week anyway. Afterwards you get a string of great days, but the same problem as the weekend before arrives again, with new years eve - the second weakest day of the holiday period - falling on Saturday. Holidays pretty much end after the weekend, meaning there is nothing to make up for the lost revenue from the Saturday.

It's still a big holiday period, meaning you can make absurd amounts of money anyway, but the schedule itself is anything but an advantage. 2015 had the best possible schedule, 2016 sees the worst. Ideally, christmas eve falls on Thursday. Wednesday is pretty good as well. The former will happen in 2020 again, the latter not until 2025. This sort of constellation allows for a bigger pre-christmas days, due to more people being off already, hides the weakest days of the season in the best possible spot for it and runs nicely into the weekends afterwards.

I'd say Rogue One won't come anywhere near TFA, but it definately has a chance to become the biggest movie of the year, depending on how interesting it appears. Right now there is no truly huge movie on the horizon. I don't think that Batman vs. Superman or Captain America will be anywhere near the size of Age of Ultron, much less The Avengers or Jurassic World. The Harry Potter spin-off won't be that big either, as even Harry Potter never came near that kind of range. Only Finding Dory might perhaps have the potential to go beyond the 300-400 million range. Generally, the whole year feels more like 2014, with quite a few big, but no really huge movie.


edit: ha, took so long to write this that the schedule-issue had already been mentioned in the meantime

 

Obviously, a lot will depend on the quality of the film itself. If it's good, or better-than-good, then I would expect a total domestic take of around $500m. Much less than TFA of course, but a resounding financial success nevertheless.

If it really blows it out of the park, then expect more than $600m.

If it sucks, then expect something potentially even lower than $400m.

Internationally it will have a much better split than TFA, especially if it delivers on action and spectacle. Also, will blow it out of the water in China (two Chinese stars are part of the diverse cast)

If TFA vaporized the US/UK box office, I would expect Rogue One to smash expectations internationally, especially if:

a) The film is very good.

b) The USD falls around 10% or more.

c) It delivers more on the action side than TFA did.


Edit: Oh, and I think that Rogue One is the favorite for being the number one film in the US and possibly worldwide. Batman vs Superman is also a big question mark in the coming year, same with Civil War. Can anyone think of another upcoming movie that can become massive in the coming year?

 

$350-$450 million U.S.
$500-$550 million foreign.

 

This thread already exists, merging now.

 

Yes, thanks. Please merge. Looked for a similar thread but didn't catch that one. Sorry.


Guessing the int'l reception to this spinoff is tricky. I'm not so sure there will be stickiness with global audiences after TFA. The power of the brand overseas is hard for me to figure out. I guess the trailer will help frame things a bit.

 

Rogue One is the most anticipated 2016 movie according to a Fandango survey, and with Donnie Yen the Star Wars franchise should see a significant boost in China. I think it will finish above a $billion worldwide, but looking at December's release schedule it might have a Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence scifi movie titled 'Passengers' which might make things a little interesting

 

After TFA, there's no way to dispute that list. The Star Wars brand is a known quantity, and there's no way to know how or whether general audiences make a distinction between the saga and the anthology films.

TFA was a trial balloon for Disney. They know for certain now that Star Wars films have the potential to outperform Marvel Cinematic Universe films. And if Star Wars anthology films can outperform the flagship Avengers series, then Disney may have to rethink its release strategy. Right now, the release calendar privileges Marvel over Star Wars.

 

Your Rogue 1 predictions seem far more believable than your TFA predictions.

;-)

 

thank you!

 

What do you mean by rethinking their Marvel strategy?

 

I posted that before Episode VIII was moved to December. Moving Disney permanently to December (or for the next few films at least) solves a lot of problems. In particular it helps ensure that Star Wars and Marvel won't be cannibalizing each others' audiences.

 

I suspect Rouge One will scrape $1 billion & that's only if it's well received :

$450 mill domestic
$550 mill world

 

Is Rouge One some sort of new red lipstick?

 

$700 million worldwide would be a good benchmark - something akin to Winter Soldier (which was also a non-core entry in the Marvel series).

A Billion worldwide sounds about right, if I was to make a guess though. Hell...if an unmitigated disaster like Johnny Depp's Alice on Wonderland can make a Billion, then surely Rogue One can.

 

Seeing the original Death Star under construction in the R1 trailer would be enough to make me increase my prediction drastically.

 

What about a glimpse of Vader?

 

I hope I can suspend my disbelief on that one. I had a problem with Chewie and TFA knowing that there were a bunch of different people in the suit. Not at the same time, obviously. That would have been uncool.

 

recent rumors of ANOTHER show stealing droid and a larger than expected role of vader is really pushing my predictions up...however i fear that the rest of the films script isnt up to par...the rewrites make me crap my pants

 

Why would they?
Rewrites happen all the time. So far we have one writer who got switched out for another one, plus a third writer polishing the script. Switching writers once isn't unusual at all, neither is having someone else doing the polishing.

Empire strikes Back had its first draft written by Leigh Brackett, Lucas didn't like it all that much and Brackett died before she could change it. Lucas took over and wrote a new draft, before handing the script over to Kasdan. This is virtually an identical situation to what happened with Rogue One (minus someone dying of course), and I doubt that many people consider ESB to have a poor script. There is zero reason to have any fears about a script just because they happened to switch writers at some point. Nor is there anything to worry about if they tinker with the script later on. If you have complete chaos, with writers coming and going and the whole production gettting delayed again and again because there was no script in time for the shoot, then you can worry about the script, but that isn't the case here.

Of course the script could be good or bad regardless of how production went. There is nothing worrying about rewrites and script-polishes in itself.

 

It will confuse the GP. Look how many think all Stromtroopers r clones.

 

What Disney should of done was release R1 in 2015 then release TFA in 2016. If R1 was the "first SW movie in 10 years" it wood of made so much more then being released a year after the big enchilada that was TFA.

Now that TFA disappointed a lot of fans, R1 will make a lot less then if it was released first.

 

Yeah, what a failure of a film. Only 900 mln$ domestic and 2 bln $ worldwide. Clearly Disney had no idea how to manage these films. And those disappointed fans on the streets promising not to watch another SW film because of TFA.

 

His

History is repeating itself. Its 1999 all over again. Now was TFA a blockbuster like TPM???? Yes. Was TFA a great movie? Heck no. Most OT old guards like me c it 4 what it is.......A REHASH. I predict VIII will make 250 million less then VIi. Just like II made 250 million less then I.

 

TFA was much bigger than TPM, even adjusted. In fact, TFA is the biggest SW sequel or prequel ever. And as a member of the OT old guard, I'll say I also c TFA 4 wut it iz: a rejuvenation of the franchise.

 

Yeah, that is pretty much nonsense. The movie did far beyond expectations, and just because you didn't like it doesn't mean that the general perception is the same. Nor does your opinion represent "OT old guards" in any way, you are merely one person and don't speak for everyone. While the movie doesn't get rated comparable to ANH or ESB, it very much is extremely popular, as evidenced by all the different measurements that are available (box office, critics, audience reviews, etc.). So no, this definately won't hurt any following movie.

As for VIII dropping from VII, duh, that's what pretty much every sequel does, especially when you are talking about the truly gigantic movies. ESB made somewhere between 65-80% of ANH, depending on how you count. The only time sequels do increase, is if the first one wasn't particularly big, in other words a sleeper-hit that surprised people, which led to a bigger fanbase for part 2. Only Lord of the Rings doesn't really fall into that category, and that was a well-known three part story that was released in short-order.
II didn't make 250 million less than I either, it was about 120 million less, unless you mean worldwide, in which case Disney would take VIII doing 250 million less than VII and run all the way to the bank. That would be an exceptional result for any movie.
Even if VIII made 250 less domestically, you would still look at around 700 million, a perfectly normal drop for the second movie and a total that would still be the third biggest ever behind TFA and Avatar.

The idea that Disney should have released Rogue One first is ridiculous to say the least. The main story is the driving factor, you don't start off with any side-movies. VII had the perfect combination of being the follow-up to ROTJ, the first Star Wars movie in over ten years and a huge nostalgia-effect through the big three being involved. Rogue One has pretty much nothing of that. It has nothing in terms of nostalgia (apart from perhaps Vader appearing) nor will it even be a "normal" Star Wars movie in terms of style. Releasing that movie first would have been the worst thing they could have done, well, apart from not making any new movies of course.