Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

Would LOVE to see it take home the title but there's some stiff competition. That said, nearly all the expected huge hits of last year ended up underperforming, and most of the top ten were surprising, either in overperforming or coming out of nowhere.

As for confusing the general audience, it certainly has the potential, I've seen a lot of confusion while working at a theater. However, with the success of TFA, there's a huuuuge new crop of fans, so most households have or know a serious enough fan that lack of understanding I think, will not make a significant impact on its success.

Plus, if Disney uses the "You know this story, now learn how this happened" marketing, that will definitely help the GA.

 

Disney has engendered goodwill with the Marvel flicks, making them almost bulletproof from a box-office perspective. The same has happened with TFA. I've heard firsthand from at least two people you wouldn't consider to be 'star wars fans' that they wanted to see TFA again. There are stories like that all over. The potential audience,and the appetite, has expanded. Rogue One may not make half as much as TFA but I don't see it doing badly.

$300m is the floor if the film is well received. Incredible.

 

Half domestically is probably a good guess, but it may do better. Opening weekend may not have the massive advance sales of TFA, but I won't be surprised if it's in close to $200 million again. The following midweek totals are likely to be fantastic. The main downside in the subsequent weekends are the Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve Sundays, which will tear a big hole in weekend box office.

 

$350 million domestic
$450 million foreign

Bottom...

 

I think Rogue One will make at least a billion WW. If Darth Vader is in it (I think it’s safe to say he is), the film will be a behemoth.

 

Given how incredibly well-received TFA was, I don't see why Rogue One couldn't potentially make more. Unless it gets an R rating, it could potentially surpass TFA. As soon as audiences catch onto the fact that they'll be seeing Vader again, the hype train is going to fly down the tracks.

 

I don't see how. TFA was the continuation of the story, Rogue One is merely a spin off that may use a tiny bit of Vader. I don't think it is particularly likely that Episode VIII will be able to match TFA, after all, neither ESB nor AOTC managed to match ANH or TPM, Rogue One should have virtually no chance to do so. It is neither the next chapter in the saga, nor does it have the big three, nor is it the first Star Wars movie in over ten years. It also has a much worse holiday period than TFA had.

TFA basically had the perfect circumstances and managed one of the truly great runs in cinema history. That's not really something you can copy - much less beat - easily with a spin off.

 

To you, Rogue One is not a continuation of the story. To you, it's a "spin off." To most casual audiences, it's mainly another Star Wars movie - and one with Vader in it, no less! And TFA has caused a Star Wars fever that brought in not only OT and PT fans, but loads of new fans, and an incredibly diverse cross-section of people. Rogue One will build on that good will from casual audiences, and that significantly expanded number of fans.

Now, given that it seems likely to be a little less family-friendly than TFA, I don't think it will make as much money. But I think, like so many fans did before TFA was released, that we're likely to significantly underestimate this film's Box Office potential.

 

I expect they'll be wanting it to perform about as well as a non-avengers-team-up marvel movie.

 

And so the underestimation begins. I thought that after TFA destroyed early expectations of fans (a number of whom thought it might be the third or fourth highest-grossing film of 2015), that these kinds of low-ball prognoses would start to fade. But I was wrong!

I suppose it's seen as better to underestimate, and be proven too conservative, than to wildly overestimate. But I still don't think it's too much of a risk to expect Rogue One to do much, much better than a non-Avengers team-up Marvel movie! This is a movie with Darth Vader in it.

 

I suppose what I meant was they'd want it to perform at least as well as a non team up marvel movie in order to class it as a success. I wasn't suggesting that would be the best it could potentially achieve.

 

This is easily gonna make a billion worldwide. Domestically it'll make less, but nothing, not even VIII, can top TFA due to its overall hype. It's a SW film, and when the marketing starts cranking up it'll easily surpass everything else like TFA did.

The comparisons between the anthology films and Marvel's standalone films are also sort of wrong to me. Star Wars as a whole is different from Marvel. People see superhero films due to the characters, like why Iron Man makes more than Thor and Antman. People see Star Wars because of the name and universe itself, Star Wars. We love the characters, but also the planets, the battles, the technology... It's wholly different than how Marvel works.

 

I think Darth Vader is the KEY to making a billion. How well they use him in marketing the film will determine if the film can get anywhere close to TFA. Because i think we are going to see diminishing returns with each Star Wars movie that is released

 

Diminishing returns eventually? Sure, that's likely. But not with the second film, IMO. Not after the wild success of the first one.

 

I think it will do really well. I'm going with $1 more than the first Avengers movie (adjusted). TFA was a sensation, based largely on nostalgia. Rogue one will have a crap load of nostalgia too.

 

I have a feeling that Rogue One could be a better movie than TFA and actually beat them in Box Office. Unlike TFA this movie does not have restriction other than the main plot. There is no Skywalker, The Good Side does not have to win other than getting the Death Star plan. It would really feel like a movie where the small Rebels have difficulty fighting off the Empire. It could also attract Asia people to get invested in the Star Wars saga.

 

It won't make 2 billion. I can see it making a billion,easily if they show Darth Vader in the marketing, but I think TFA is the only Star Wars movie that will cross 2 billion. Maybe Ep9 if it is the last of the main episodes but I don't see any of the antholigies making anywhere close to 2 billion. They will do well to cross 1 billion in my opinion.

 

Rogue One has the potential to be a better movie. It will be only the second Star Wars movie ever that cannot rely on the plot of a pre-existing Star Wars movie for its success. It forces Star Wars into a sidebar subgenre with a lot of potential.

Of course, just because something is going to be somewhat original, doesn't mean it will be good.

Rogue One will likely make decent money whether or not it's any good. It will have the Vader and Death Star nostalgia fan service going for it, and we know how far the nostalgia pandering took TFA.

But if it's both original and good, then it will succeed wildly. Probably nothing will help it do as well as TFA in the U.S., but it could equal TFA's foreign box office. It will come out well under $2 billion no matter what, but $1.3-$1.5 billion is plausible. It could succeed like an Avenger's sequel by tying into OT iconography and by being excellent.

If it's excellent.

 

Except that LOTS of the people who saw and loved TFA, you know, hadn't seen the older films (or at least had no great attachment to them). I know more than a few people like this personally actually. They loved the movie, because they loved the movie, so the "nostalgia pandering" nonsense is very overblown.

 

Exactly. Nostalgia fed the tickets going on sale records. The movie actually being good did the rest.

 

Just as a side note. Isn't it great to see so many young people love Star Wars again. And the great thing for them is they have 6 other movies to watch straight away. A colleague told me she took her 7 year old to TFA and loved it. And I told her I will give him episode 1 and 2 to watch, so I can not wait to see what he thinks of the older movies

 

Unless you have numbers to back up this statement, then you can't make any claim to knowing whether the nostalgia pandering is overblown or not. What I see is that the movie appealed to the iconography of the OT, the characters of the OT and mimicked the style and plot of ANH, and did immensely better than the prequel films. I don't know how you go about separating the "quality" of TFA from any of that.

But regardless, it's irrelevant to this discussion. Rogue One can make a nostalgia play, but it has less to offer in that regard since Luke, Han, Chewie and Leia won't be appearing in it. All you have are original original style TIE fighters and X Wings, the Death Star, and Vader. And who knows what other cameo nostalgia callbacks will be shoehorned in.

But in general, Rogue One will have to have a somewhat original Star Wars plot. People will love that if it's good, particularly those who disliked the ANH rehash problems of TFA.

 

It's fantastic. I part time in a theater and there have been so many kids wearing shirts and costumes and having little lightsaber battles. No matter what, the fandom is secure for another generation.

 

You're actually more likely to enjoy the film if you haven't seen the originals, IMO. Because in that case, the "nostalgia pandering" is fine. Because you don't even know it's pandering!

People like this movie because it's good. Plain and simple.

 

Rogue One will be HUGE, no doubt about it. Whether it's #1 of 2016 you can't be sure, but it will bring home the bacon regardless. Just the idea that Vader will make an appearance/have a role... it will bring people in big time.