ST Rotten Tomatoes predictions

No, I don't agree, the main consensus from the Vanity Fair article is that everyone wanted to get away from the prequels period. Still, this movie will be good. The hard part is going to be when it truly becomes successful and distances itself even further than the prequels. The OT is like the prequels to this trilogy while the actually prequels are viewed as a bad omen that no one wants part of....Jar Jar Binks anyone? Hahahaha

 

OK, I've had a closer look at the variance of reviews for different movies, and here's how I think things will pan out:

If TFA gets an average rating of around 8, expect at RT score of ~95%, with a floor of ~87%. If you're thinking it'll get an average rating closer to 7.5, you're looking at an RT score of ~87%, with a floor of ~77%. (To me, 77% would be absolute worst-case-scenario, and highly unlikely. It's the sort of thing that happens more because of sample size than actual consensus, though a score like that would still put it above TPM and AOTC.)

I personally think 91-95% is the most likely scenario. But here's the thing: it is highly unlikely to score lower than ROTS at 80%, even if critics don't outright praise it. In almost any reasonably likely scenario, TFA will be the best scoring SW movie since ESB.

 

If the rumors play out like MakingStarWars.com has them (I hope not, but since they've been pretty dead-on so far it seems likely)

60-ish percent like the Hobbit films, maybe low 70s like Hobbit 2 and the recent avengers.

"It may not quite bring back the sense of fun [since starts with massacre of village of innocent people, Order 66 #2 later, Leia becomes new Tarkin, the General shoots his own guys, Han's death especially] and innovation of the original films [stormtroopers again, x-wings again, tie fighters again, elements like super weapons and a Jedi massacre are repeated, etc], and the absence of a certain key character is disappointing [obviously Luke], but overall despite its flaws Star Wars the Force Awakens is still fairly decent and a welcome return to the Star Wars universe."

Audience rating might be lower, between 40 and 60, akin to how movies like The Dark Knight Rises and Prometheus were well-received by critics but audience opinions were largely more negative or divisive.

Overall I don't think it will be very good and I think the reviews will reflect that, however due to the fact that people are kind of use to disappointment after the prequels, Hobbit, etc, and that overall aside from Han and Luke this movie seems to be more playing it safe and copying the originals to a fault than reinventing the material for the worst like the prequels did, I don't think this will be considered a historical flop or anything, but rather just kind of disappointing. People will still see the next ones albeit with diminishing returns that will bring Star Wars down to the level of average movie-wise rather than a major event. I don't think critics are going to eviscerate such a major event movie what with all the positive buzz prior in magazines like Entertainment Weekly, Vanity Fair, etc, there's so much riding on this for the studio that I expect they won't be too hard on it.

 

I think you're totally off-base there. The performances will be strong and the material will give everyone moments to really inject some gravitas, and I can't see critics not tuning into that. People are more receptive to that sort of storytelling in SW--much more than they were in 1980, and indeed, as ESB's reputation has grown, so has the hunger for that sort of story again.

Like I said above, anything under 80% is just highly unlikely. Nightmare scenario is ~66%, and that's only if it's the sort of movie that critics want to like more than they actually do, or ~55% if it's genuinely bad. Again, I cannot emphasis enough that these scenarios will happen only if everything goes wrong.

As it stands, I expect an average rating of around 8.0 out of 10, and a standard deviation of 1, resulting in an RT score of 95%. Nobody will be complaining about X-wings returning or Hamill not being front-and-centre--they'll be praising a return to the universe of OT, the performances of the key players and the fact that it delivers more than it had to in terms of dramatic storytelling.

 

The Force is strong with this one.

 

I'll guess somewhere in the mid 80's - low 90's.

High 70's for metacritic

 

My guess would be 80-85%.

 

Needs to be 80% plus as anything under that we could be in trouble......

 

I think the mid-high 90s. I have a very good feeling about this one, and I think critics will focus on its differences from the prequels, and chalk that up as a big positive.

 

Did you write this is? Or is it a copy and Paste.

If you wrote it, you literally took a worst case scenario for everything. My favorite was the lack of innovation comment.

The PT redid all of the ships and such and it just not work, at least for me. Does anyone really want there not to be X-wings, Stormtroopers, ties, and of course there is going to be a super weapon. How else would we have it. Having every movie end with a lightsaber duel was to much in the PT. Have this one end with a good duel, have the 2nd where they neutralize said super weapon make the 3rd movie about the counter offensive.

I hope you are just trying to temper your enthusiasm to help cope with the disappointment (if it does indeed suck) after being burned by EP 1 and 2 (3 was pretty darn good IMO).

 

I can see that happening. I can also see the overwhelming positivity eventually cooling down as it did with the '09 Star Trek. Once the elation of finally having a good Star Wars movie fades away, people will be more willing to see its flaws.

 

...after reading all these leaks from people who 'saw' the movie, I''m updating my prediction to 30%.
lol

 

Would these "people" happen to be from reddit?

 

Yeah, the guy on Reddit who claimed to have seen the film said Gleeson was in one scene as Luke's son. The pictures yesterday thoroughly exposed that as the BS it was.

 

Oh reddit.....


My current prediction is between 75-85. It'll be a miracle if it makes it into the 90s, and sadly a downside of being in the 90s is that trolls and attention-seeking websites start to post as many hate-posts/reviews as possible for attention (most of which usually lead to the writer getting death threats from fans like what happened with Avengers and TDKR. People kinda get crazy if somebody breaks a film's positive review streak)

 

I think low-90s is pretty reasonable if it's a genuinely good or great film (which is what it looks like based on everything we've seen and heard), or at the very least well-made and a lot of fun. Plenty of big, multi-film franchise blockbusters have done it recently. X-Men: Days of Future Past. The Avengers. Skyfall. Guardians of the Galaxy. But, you know what else we get if the film breaks into the low/mid 90s?

"Everything Wrong with The Force Awakens"
"15 Biggest Flaws in The Force Awakens"
"10 Major Plot Holes You Probably Didn't Notice in The Force Awakens"
None of which address actual issues that may exist within the movie, but rather say things like, "Finn is a stormtrooper but in the prequels they were all revealed to be clones! Plot hole! I'm so smart! Take that, Hollywood!"

Oh yeah. You can bet I'm dreading those.

 

I'm predicting low 90's, but with all the suff I'm hearing about this movie it sounds like it could be in the mid 90's, at the least. But going by the previews of the last three films it's really hard to tell. If this movie suffers from average acting and a script that doesn't have enough heart, like the Prequels had, then it's fair to say that this film will be placed somewhere in the range between 50 and 70 percent.

 

That's one thing that I'm confident won't happen. Solid script and acting at a minimum.

 

Yeah. Even with a near complete plot synopsis, it's hard to tell how this'll end up. The plot is a bit of a retread, but if it's pulled off in a fresh and entertaining way, it won't matter (like with Star Trek '09). I wouldn't be too worried about the acting though. J.J is good with actors. The script is harder to predict. J.J has a spotty history with scripts and Kasdan hasn't written anything good in more than a decade.

 

Star Wars: 93%
Empire: 96%
Jedi:79%

TPM: 57%
AOTC: 67%
ROTS: 80%

I therefore predict The Force Awakens will be around 80%.

 

Even if the rest of the film is an absolute disaster, the cast will still be enjoyable to watch. I think Into Darkness' script is an absolute mess, but I've still rewatched it quite a few times back-to-back with the '09 Star Trek simply because the cast clicks together so well, and each actor is individually good in their own right. The ensemble is a joy to watch.

Of the films he's directed, Abrams only wrote Mission: Impossible III (which I haven't seen and can't comment on), and Super 8, which I thought had a really nice script with good dialogue and a lot of heart, so off of just that I feel pretty confident. What we need Kasdan to do is tap into what he had going on with The Empire Strikes Back and Raiders of the Lost Ark in terms of exciting scenes and believable and engrossing interactions between characters. Return of the Jedi had some really great character moments and interactions too, even if it wasn't as wholly consistent as the other two movies mentioned. We also know he's good at working off of Lucas' outlines and ideas, so there's that. Hopefully it all works out.

 

Given that Star Trek: Into Darkness scored well, I'd expect TFA to be at least in the same ball park (unless a complete turkey). Even if it's an average film, I'd imagine it will get 80 plus... Still, I believe the biggest indicator will be whether TFA is the biggest film of the year... and if it's not, TPTB will be rather p****d (specifically with Abrams and Kennedy).

 

Jurassic World pretty much caught everyone by surprise after the lacklustre marketing. It will be interesting to see what happens with TFA. The second teaser is now in the Guinness book of records for views on its first day.

In terms of reactions to trailers, nothing has come close to TFA - if the film itself matches that it should be number 1.

 

My friend... I'll be really happy if TFA is a good and popular film.... but let's not get caught up in this marketing and PR spin. As much as I love all things Star Wars, never have I been so exposed to a single trailer. It was there in my feed on Facebook, Twitter etc. It's there when I logged into Apple TV... it's there when I turned my Xbox on etc. It's great marketing, in terms of getting it under people's noses... but (as someone who had some background in media/marketing) please let's not confuse number of views with popularity/desire (although not mutually exclusive of course). The number of the views, IMHO, is much more reflective of the success of a marketing strategy as it is the popularity of a new SW film per se. If the trailer had not been proactively pushed, I doubt cinemas (for example) would have seem a rise in box office due to people going to the cinema just to catch the new trailer etc. etc. Of course interest in SW is big, but I think it would be a mistake to automatically think TFA's success is guaranteed based on a very effective social media marketing strategy... that made it pretty much impossible to miss.