ST Rotten Tomatoes predictions

I didn't say any of those things. My argument is that the trailer response is not due solely to clever marketing, and that the trailer response is an imperfect but leading indicator of box office potential, yes.

It's an early indicator of something culturally significant, yes.

Didn't say "new cultural phenomenon". The phrase was "culturally significant". Not necessarily the same. You can have a resurgence of interest in a dormant cultural phenomenon. Is that new, or merely significant? Maybe we're splitting hairs, but I feel like you're moving the goalposts on me.

Yes.

Permit me to nail them, then, once again:

It has the potential to be one of them, most certainly. Perhaps not Titanic/Avatar class, but I think it will do at least as well as JW, perhaps better, if it's a good film. In any case, it's not a no-brainer. Didn't say anything was a no-brainer. See above, re: colors, attached to mast.

You seem to have interpreted my argument as a belief that marketing doesn't matter. I don't think that; I merely think that interpreting the trailer response solely thru the lens of effective marketing might be missing an early indicator of the potential for something quite massive. It's not a dead-solid certainty, but I think the performance of JW the last few weeks strengthens rather than weakens that hypothesis. If you want to know how a relatively moribund (cinematically) franchise with cross generational appeal, rebooted with current-gen filmmakers & cast, with nostalgic throwbacks to a past blockbuster, and a reservoir of audience good will will fare, well... now we have a data point! Now, take that data point and add scalars for Disney/LFL's arguably more effective marketing, AND the popularity of the Star Wars brand on top of it.. where do you think that leads? To sub-JW numbers?

I think that's a good distinction to make, and I haven't been clear about it, certainly. Fair point. I would defend their interchangeability somewhat, at least for the next few months. TFA is a bit of an unknown for most people (spoilers not withstanding) so I think the brand awareness/significance is a reasonable proxy for significance of the film itself -- at least right now. Once it becomes more clear that the film is good or bad, and audiences are able to distinguish it apart from the brand, then the distinction will be more meaningful.

That's fair. I think it's important to keep that very rational, conservative side of the argument in mind, but I think it's a mistake to ignore what are (in my opinion, admittedly) some early indications that this film also has the potential to blow the roof off.

 

I’ll keep this to what I believe are the pertinent points...

Perhaps we are splitting hairs, but I’ve not “moved any goal posts”. I was quite specific in that I believe a popular trailer doesn’t beget a popular film... and that some were believing that the trailer was indicative of TFA being so popular that it would result in something culturally impactful/significant. I see no evidence for that. By something “culturally impactful/significant” I mean in terms of ‘popular culture’ and influencing/shaping how films are made and/or perceived a la Star Wars: ANH, Jaws, Alien, Raiders, Blade Runner etc. etc. and not simply being a popular film for a given year.

That’s not being contested Xinau. In the box office and RT thread I’ve already stated that if TFA achieves X, Y and Z it could potentially be the biggest film of all time (or at least easily doing the JW numbers). I think there is a broad consensus on that. Of course a SW film has that potential... one that I hope it achieves (assuming it warrants it). However, the original point was that marketing (and the narrative they’ve created with the marketing) was a key component to the success of the trailer... some feel it’s had very little marketing to date. I don’t believe that’s accurate at all (hence why my examples of open auditions and press releases to news agencies). I was not making a point that SW is not popular, nor that the success of the trailer was not indicative of SW’s popularity generally, but that marketing was a significant component that people were ignoring. And in doing so, potentially, not keeping expectations in check.

 

I would be shocked if this does not get at least an 80%. And at 80% this is going to be huge. Only way this does not mak 400 mil is if it sucks and in that case it does not deserve it anyways.

 

There seems to be a small chance that TFA might actually get fairly negative reviews and some audience backlash. While the story described by MSW is decent, it's far too reliant on previous plot-lines and convenience. It definitely has potential, but it has to be pulled off in a way where those problems won't be too noticeable.

 

Toy Story 3 was basically Toy Story 2 With Feeling, but because everyone was crying during it, nobody cared about the rehash. I know I'm alone in that opinion, but I really feel like the key ingredients are pathos and gravitas, and if you have those you can sell anything.

 

You're not a alone. I dislike Toy Story 3 for precisely those reasons.

But J.J has yet to truly prove himself with those two ingredients. He can definitely pull off fast-paced exciting action but the character scenes and emotional bits usually feel perfunctory.

 

I think Super 8 was his stab at that. As a whole, the movie maybe didn't work, but I do think it had some pretty good character scenes and quieter moments.

 

I don't actually think TFA has to be seen as 'original' to be deemed 'good'. And as much as I don't like the idea of things being re-hashed or re-invented (I think it's quite artistically cheap), I believe most reviewers will be positive if the film is enjoyable/entertaining. I don't think TFA will be assessed on its artistic merits (that will be done by the likes of us here), but rather, it will be assessed as a piece of entertainment... which is right or wrong dependant on how one views cinema and SW's place in cinema.

 

95%

The movie will receive good reviews, up to and including critical acclaim. It will be as good as ESB, and the debate on which one is the best will begin.

I suspect it will win awards, maybe even some non special effects ones lol

 

I think critics will give it good reviews simply as a FU to Lucas. Honestly - socio-political influences will be at work there.

I think the fans will be split over this movie.

 

to be honest, do any of you care what Rotten tomatoes will rate the film?

you're going to watch it anyway

 

...below 50%.. I won't watch in the theater; I'll rent.
...51%-69%... Theater; normal guy.
...70% + ****in' whip out the Revan gear. lol

 

While Super 8 had stuff that didn't work, as a whole i do think it did. Either way, that film showed Abrams can pull of some very emotional scenes-

 

I'm not sure Star Wars needs to have "emotional scenes" per se (what are "emotional scenes" anyway?). Rather that it needs to bring out an emotional responce (as in 'postive' emotional repsonce).

 

There is a risk TFA may have similar reviews to Terminator Genisys:

The Guardian newspaper:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/jun/30/terminator-genisys-review-arnold-schwarzenegger

I don't think such reviews like this will have any negative impact on TFA's box office. People will want to see the film irrespective of what film critics write, the hype and expectation will guarantee huge box office, however, Disney and Lucasfilm may have to brace themselves for comments as above.

Homage is subjective. One man's homage is another's copy/rip-off!

We don't know how much of the original trilogy will appear in episode VII. Perhaps it will be subtle, perhaps not, but if JJ Abrams and Lawrence Kasdan have gone overboard with their OT 'love-fest' then expect some Guardian-type reviews.

 

Genisys is a completely different kettle of fish. It's essentially the nth remake of The Terminator--you can only do that so many times in the space of 31 years.

Admittedly, SW has done the "Blow up the space station" climax three times now, but the story potential isn't nearly as limited as it is in the Terminator franchise. Audiences and critics alike are over the "Killer cyborg arrives from the future" story concept.

 

I think that's primarily because SW has established a fictional universe that's as rich as something like Middle Earth (in cinematic terms)... so it's much easier (or should be) to construct a new story, set in that same universe, and have it still feel/look like Star Wars but be something new. The Terminator, on the otherhand, is a single premise based around a handful of characters. They have to keep re-making the same story because that is primarily what The Terminator is. It's one of the reasons why I'm keen for SW to do new things with new characters and not be too tied to the past.

 

Ok, gotta temper my expectations now that the hype is starting to build. At first I was full throttle at a 97% rating.

Now, it seems there is a lot of ground to cover to establish new characters as well as develop the outcome of the universe post -ROTJ.That's a lot to go over in one movie.

Can JJ fit both in seamlessly? 80% tomato-meter is my prediction at the 4 month countdown...

 

So as "bad" as ROTS then ...

 

If Han Solo DOES die...then it needs to really punch! (Like Boromir in Lotrs)

 

Well quite...

 

Not sure anyone cared about Boromir in LOTR. You met him a few minutes ago, he seemed like an arrogant outsider that didn't belong in the group, and then he dies.

 

This hype is gettin' crazy!

First ever movie with a 100% RT rating across the board!

 

110%

 

And it's already won the Oscar for Best Picture. I'm so hyped!