RPR Archive RPF Activity Tracking Thread - Report for April-May Now In!

The RPF Activity Tracking Thread

[image=http://www.smartstockmarket.com/images/Stock-Market-Watch-Malaysia-1.jpg]

Purpose
So, as the IGN boards don't have a way to track the amount of posts coming into each individual board, that's what this thread is for. This thread will be updated every week on Monday at 9pm with the prior week's statistics. If for some reason I'm not doing my job here, other users are more than welcome to step up and post the statistics after 9pm.

Its my hope that we can get a proper feel as to posting activity here, as well as macro-trends. It will take a while, but if this program goes as planned, we will actually have some hard data as to if we are declining in activity, and if there are certain times of year that we systematically slump in posting. No more doomsday predictions, no more opinions. This will be the definitive source of board activity.

Users are encouraged to participate here. If you want to graph this data, go for it. You want to draw extrapolations, be my guest. You want to see other data reported regularly? Let me know! This thread is as much a resource for you as it is for me.

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[color=green]
[u][b]Activity Report - 9pm CDT - 10/27/08[/b][/u][/color]

[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 437,609 posts*
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 37,713 posts*
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 13,911 posts*

* Change Measurements will be available next week once we have a standard to compare
- More advance measures including monthly totals and weekly averages will become available as more data is collected

[color=green][b][u]Top Boards Report[/u][/b][/color]
[link=http://boards.theforce.net/TopBoards.aspx]Source[/link]

[b][u]30 Day Activity[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 11th Position
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

[b][u]Total Posts[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 9th Position
NSWRPF - <25th Postion
RPR - <25th Position

[b][u]Most Favorite[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 8th Position
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

 

Excellent idea.

 

We thought so.

*Shamelessly increases RPR's post count*

 

This is a great idea.

 

To what end?

 

Just a thought, but maybe you could keep track of the number of threads active over the course of a week? Activity could be high in, say, two or three threads, but near-dead in the rest. Just suggesting.

 

Activity Report - 9pm CDT - 11/03/08

Totals

This Week
Star Wars Role Playing Forum: 437,822 posts
Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum: 37,791 posts
Role Playing Resource: 14,059 posts

Last Week
Star Wars Role Playing Forum: 437,609 posts
Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum: 37,713 posts
Role Playing Resource: 13,911 posts

Weekly Activity:
Star Wars Role Playing Forum: 213 posts
Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum: 78 posts
Role Playing Resource: 148 posts

*Average and deviations-from-average weekly activity will come once we get a second set of weekly activity data

Top Boards Report
Source

30 Day Activity
SWRPF - 12th Position (DOWN 1 - LAST WEEK)
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

Total Posts
SWRPF - 9th Position
NSWRPF - <25th Postion
RPR - <25th Position

Most Favorite
SWRPF - 8th Position
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

Limited Board Activity Report
Source: Daily System Statistics

Posts as of 10/28: 18,490,740
Posts as of 11/3: 18,506,543
Week's Post Activity: 16,980

*Average and deviations-from-average weekly activity will come once we get a second set of weekly activity data

 

<img src="http://www.dianeduane.com/images/LOLVader.jpg">

 

Summary

The week ending 11/10/08 was a strong week for most of the RPFs. Star Wars RPF had an very strong showing, outperforming the JC's overall activity by a margin of about 3:1 off the average. NSWRPF had a more modest growth, lagging behind the JC's average by approximately 3%, but growing nonetheless by 7%. RPR was the big loser this week, exhibiting no growth and staying exactly on average. While this fact should not overshadow the point that the rate hasn't dropped, it is disappointing compared to the positive gains in the other boards. As the number of observations increase in the measuring of activity averages, expect the gains on all four measurements to become increasingly modest, as more accurate averages are established.

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[color=green][u][b]Activity Report - 10:00pm CDT - 11/10/08[/b][/u][/color]
[b][u]Totals[/u][/b]

[u]This Week[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 438,227 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 37,882 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 14,207 posts

[u]Last Week[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 437,822 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 37,791 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 14,059 posts

[u]Weekly Activity:[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 405 posts [b][color=green](Up 96 Posts / +31.07%*)[/color][/b]
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 91 posts [color=green][b](Up 6.5 Posts / +7.70%*)[/b][/color]
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 148 posts [color=blue][b](On Average / +0.00%*)[/b][/color]

[u]Average Weekly Post Activity:[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 309 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 84.5 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 148 posts
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 2

[color=green][b][u]Top Boards Report[/u][/b][/color]
[link=http://boards.theforce.net/TopBoards.aspx]Source[/link]

[b][u]30 Day Activity[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 12th Position
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

[b][u]Total Posts[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 9th Position
NSWRPF - <25th Postion
RPR - <25th Position

[b][u]Most Favorite[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 8th Position
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

[color=green][b][u]Limited Board (JC) Activity Report[/u][/b][/color]
Source: Daily System Statistics

[b]Posts as of 11/3:[/b] 18,506,543
[b]Posts as of 11/10:[/b] 18,527,596

[b]This Week's Post Activity:[/b] 21,053 [color=green][b](Up 2,036.5 / + 10.70%*)[/b][/color]
[b]Last Week's Post Activity:[/b] 16,980

[b]Average Weekly Post Activity:[/b] 19,016.5
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 2

* Measurements taken as increases/decreases off the average

 

Because I am obsessive... activity graph for As Father And Son:

[image=http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v605/xany/AFAS_html_521b05fa.gif]

Tide of Flames:

[image=http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v605/xany/tof_html_17b239d.gif]

I haven't figured out how to do it on a forum-wide basis yet (I think it would be horribly inefficient even if I could), but individual threads are okay. And you can see there are some definite peaks/lows in both graphs, although it's a bit hard to tell when exactly they happen on that resolution.


edit - If you want me to graph your thread, send me a link. It doesn't take very long.

 

Sorry for double posting, but I've been playing with this and it's awesome fun. (Also, I am a super geek.)

I got my hands on a far less annoying spreadsheet program which does better graphs, so:

[image=http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v605/xany/tof_afas.png]

That's the smoothed activity graph for Tide of Flames and As Father And Son, now with pretty colours, calculated as the number of days since the game's opening, which is why the AFAS line ends abruptly at around day 200 - it's not been around as long. (The thin, jaggedy lines in the background are the raw numbers.)

 

I_H Top Edit: Moved one of my posts to the graphs thread.

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I think we're the only two geeky enough to like graphs. Pity. :p

But I'm having fun, so hey. :D Just so it doesn't look like I just graph the games I'm in, here's all the award-winning RPGs since Autumn 2007 save GAW III, and the cumulative posts total:

[image=http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v605/xany/awardwinners.png]

Cool eh? There's some proof that we do get peaks/slumps here in the RPF... I'll need to mash more threads into there to get a better picture, but yeah, there it is.

(I've only left out GAW in this picture because it's a good two years and five hundred posts longer than anything else, which is absolutely amazing, but would take forever to download. I'll accost you for the processed file later, I_H.. :D)

 

This is pretty cool, I'm enjoying looking at the graphs.

 

So am I. It's a little disheartening to watch that line drop ever-closer to the X axis on Tide of Flames but this is a really good exercise nonetheless.

Can anyone see seasonal variations yet? It seems to me that the hard spikes at the commencement of a RPG are probably functions of (a) lots of people signing up; (b) character sheets and various other OOC discussions before the game gets underway; (c) the setup posts and getting everyone off and running. Consequently perhaps one has to discount or even ignore those early spikes and pay attention to the overall run of RPGs...?

I'm also interested in one phenomenon I seem to be observing (apologies to Schrödinger there) in the graphs: a lot of the games seem to have the big spike of joining players at the beginning, and then relatively shortly after their commencement (30-100 days by the look of it) they tend to get another big spike as well. Hmmmm...

 

First big storyline getting underway?

 

I like that last graph, Xan. If I may ask, what type of statistical output are you using to get the smoothed curves?

 

I think the spike in Tide of Flames happened when we were gearing up for the main campaign, but I haven't checked to be certain. No idea about the causes for other games, though... a flurry of new players joining perhaps? Exams being over?

The problem with discounting those early spikes is, for some games that's all there is - an early spike and then a fast slide down into oblivion. Then again, maybe that in itself is telling; the really successful games are the ones that keep a more or less consistent posting pattern.


Ramza - Exponential smoothing. How exactly it works I couldn't tell you, though, I just use the Gnumeric function.

 

Gnumeric?
[image=http://www.namhunt.de/en/jagdbilder/fotos/gnu_sprung.jpg]

 

Gnumeric.


Edit: Moving to the new thread...

 

We have wormsign!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Exponential smoothing, huh? I suppose that makes more sense, given the style of the graphs, than my first guess which was running average...

 

Summary

NOTE: This week's report is a two week average for the week of November 17th and the 24th. The totals presented here are for each week, presented as its own equal average. This choice was made to maintain the viability of weekly averages. This benefit was at the expense of masking spikes and trends of these two weeks only.

The averaged two week period revealed a few surprises. SWRPF continued to show positive growth at the average level, although its gains were more modest, suggesting that the value is approaching its true mean. Non-Star Wars RPF showed a very large jump, suggesting either 1.) the strong influence of DUNE and a bumper crop of games launched during the week of 11/17, or 2.) unusually low averages in the beginning of the month. The RPR registered the RPFs first losses on the average. While it could be that the averages at the top of month were artificially high, it also could be explained by the end of the awards season, the closure of the Dune planning thread, and the RPF Rules thread.

Another unfortunate market point is the SWRPF's slipping to 13th position on the 30 day activity report. This is probably due to South Australia Fanforce's "Spam to One Million Thread", which alone registered more than 250 posts in the two week measurement period. Additionally, Census has been experiencing many new games that have bumped up the activity of their threads.

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[color=green][u][b]Activity Report - 9:15pm CDT - 11/24/08[/b][/u][/color]
[b][u]Totals[/u][/b]

[u]This Week[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 438,939 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 38,190 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 14,427 posts

[u]Last Week[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 438,227 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 37,882 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 14,207 posts

[u]Weekly Activity:[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 712 posts for 2 weeks, 356 posts a week [b][color=green](Up 23.5 Posts / + 7.06%*)[/color][/b]
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 308 posts for 2 weeks, 154 posts a week [color=green][b](Up 36.375 Posts / + 20.92%*)[/b][/color]
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 220 posts for 2 weeks, 110 posts a week [color=red][b](Down 19 Posts / - 14.73%*)[/b][/color]

[u]Average Weekly Post Activity:[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 332.5 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 117.625 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 129 posts
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 4

[color=green][b][u]Top Boards Report[/u][/b][/color]
[link=http://boards.theforce.net/TopBoards.aspx]Source[/link]

[b][u]30 Day Activity[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 13th Position [color=red][b](DOWN 1 POSITION)[/b][/color]
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

[b][u]Total Posts[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 9th Position
NSWRPF - <25th Postion
RPR - <25th Position

[b][u]Most Favorite[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 8th Position
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

[color=green][b][u]Limited Board (JC) Activity Report[/u][/b][/color]
Source: Daily System Statistics

[b]Posts as of 11/24:[/b] 18,568,459
[b]Posts as of 11/17:[/b] 18,549,488
[b]Posts as of 11/10:[/b] 18,527,596

[b]Week of 11/24's Post Activity:[/b] 18,971 [color=red][b](Down 754 Posts/ - 3.82%*)[/b][/color]
[b]Week of 11/17's Post Activity:[/b] 21,892
[b]Week of 11/10's Post Activity:[/b] 16,980

[b]Average Weekly Post Activity:[/b] 19,724
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 4

* Measurements taken as increases/decreases off the average

 

Summary

SWRPF and RPR slid this week, while NSWRPF registered the strongest weekly surge recorded in this thread. SWRPF's loss of 18 posts off average mirrors the slowdown in the boards as a whole of almost 4%, causing little reason to concern. Thanksgiving Holidays are the likely culprit here, or even simple competition from the NSWRPF. This is the SWRPF's first loss on this index. RPR's case is a little more worrisome, sliding 10%, though registering 2 posts stronger than last week's disappointing loss. Its likely that activity in the Holiday Ball will boost RPR's fortunes, though this assumes constant activity in other threads. The big winner is NSWRPF, registering its second strait week of growth off the average. Its average has strengthened more than 50 posts since it was first recorded here. In an important turn of events, the NSWRPF's average has finally overtaken the RPR's average, setting the NSWRPF in the second most active board position. This surge is likely due to a spike in activity in Dune, League, Tears of Scarlet and Star Trek: A New Hope. RPF activity relative to the JC remains stable. New measurements were added to the report.

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[color=green][u][b]Activity Report - 8:55pm CDT - 12/1/08[/b][/u][/color]
[b][u]Totals[/u][/b]

[u]This Week[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 439,248 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 38,386 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 14,539 posts

[u]Last Week[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 438,939 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 38,190 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 14,427 posts

[u]Weekly Activity:[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 309 posts [b][color=red](Down 18 Posts / - 5.49%*)[/color][/b]
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 196 posts [color=green][b](Up 61.4 Posts / + 45.62%*)[/b][/color]
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 112 posts [color=red][b](Down 13.6 Posts / - 10.83%*)[/b][/color]

[u]Average Weekly Post Activity:[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 327.8 posts [color=red][b](Down 4.7 Posts)[/b][/color]
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 134.6 posts [color=green][b](Up 16.975 Posts)[/b][/color]
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 125.6 posts [color=red][b](Down 3.4 Posts)[/b][/color]
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 5

[b]Average Community Post Activity: [color=blue]588[/color] posts per week [/b]
[b]Total Community Post Count: [color=blue]492,173[/color] posts[/b]

[u]November's Average Weekly Post Activities:[/u]
[b]Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 327.8 posts
[b]Non Star Wars Role Playing Forum:[/b] 134.6 posts
[b]Role Playing Resource:[/b] 125.6 posts
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 5

[color=green][b][u]Top Boards Report[/u][/b][/color]
[link=http://boards.theforce.net/TopBoards.aspx]Source[/link]

[b][u]30 Day Activity[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 13th Position
NSWRPF - less than 24th Postion
RPR - less than 24th Position

[b][u]Total Posts[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 9th Position
NSWRPF - less than 25th Postion
RPR - less than 25th Position

[b][u]Most Favorite[/u][/b]
SWRPF - 8th Position
NSWRPF - <24th Postion
RPR - <24th Position

[color=green][b][u]Limited Board (JC) Activity Report[/u][/b][/color]
Source: Daily System Statistics

[b]Posts as of 12/01:[/b] 18,587,208
[b]Posts as of 11/24:[/b] 18,568,459

[b]Week of 12/01's Post Activity:[/b] 18,749 [color=red][b](Down 780 Posts/ - 3.99%*)[/b][/color]
[b]Week of 11/24's Post Activity:[/b] 18,971

[b]Average Weekly Post Activity:[/b] 19,529
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 5

[b]November's Average Weekly Post Activity:[/b] 19,529
[b]Number of Observations:[/b] 5

* Measurements taken as increases/decreases off the weekly post average

 

Are we going to have some sort of celebration when the RPF reaches half a mil?

-B-

 

Cool, I helped upset the equilibrium.