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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Senate So it looks like the Ebola outbreak is getting more serious

Discussion in 'Community' started by Space_Wolf, Jul 30, 2014.

  1. Space_Wolf

    Space_Wolf Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2007
    I don't normally contribute to Senate discussions, but it looks like the Ebola crisis in Africa has now become a serious problem. I thought it would be a good idea to share this so that people can keep themselves safe from the disease.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28558783
     
  2. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 19, 1999
    You mean it becomes serious as soon as it kills somebody besides a sub-Saharan African.


     
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  3. G-FETT

    G-FETT Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 10, 2001
    The good news with Ebola (assuming you can have any good news with a virus that kills 90% of it victims and seems to be spreading) is that it's not ***THAT*** easily spreadable.

    The worst epidemics/pandemics are always the one's that spread through the respiratory system via coughing and sneezing. Having such a high mortality rate also means that Ebola outbreaks should also burn themselves out in time.

    Given these factors it should always be relatively easy to contain an outbreak of Ebola. It's hard to know what's gone wrong with particular outbreak and why it wasn't contained in it's earliest stages.

    http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/
     
  4. Darth_Invidious

    Darth_Invidious Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Jun 21, 1999
    Somebody needs to tweak that virus and make it a REAL threat.
     
  5. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 19, 1999
    This outbreak doesn't seem to be killing 90% of its victims. More like 60-70%. I'm sure the death toll will rise a bit and maybe the numbers aren't accurate, but it doesn't seem to me that the death toll has really risen that much in the last few weeks - despite the big news of the American dying after flying to Nigeria, the outbreak seems to be on the decline.

    The outbreak started in Jan/Feb in Guinea, spread to Sierra Leone and Liberia by the end of March. Through April the outbreak was killing an average of 1.25 people/day. By the end of April that number had risen to 2.2. By the end of May it was 1.85. Then it spiked in June to 4.5, and hit a peak of about 10 people a day by early July and became the biggest ebola outbreak ever. Since then, if the numbers are accurate, it has dropped a bit to less than 8 people a day. The latest news cycle hopefully will spark international spending to help end the epidemic in the three countries.

    This is just reported deaths on a given date divided by the number of days since the previous report. Obviously, this isn't how people get infected and die of ebola. That tends to happen in clusters as someone gets sick and gets handled by family members/neighbors/health care workers. What's a mystery to me is how the big June/July cluster or group of clusters was able to happen after the epidemic had already been going on in those three countries for months. At that point is seems like a major policy failure of some kind.
     
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  6. Juliet316

    Juliet316 37X Hangman Winner star 10 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    Apr 27, 2005
    I would avoid going anywhere that currently has an outbreak of a virus that could liquiefy you that has no known cure, right now.
     
  7. I Are The Internets

    I Are The Internets Shelf of Shame Host star 9 VIP - Game Host

    Registered:
    Nov 20, 2012
    I thought this said "twerk the virus".
     
  8. Darth_Invidious

    Darth_Invidious Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Jun 21, 1999
    You would, wouldn't you? :p
     
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  9. G-FETT

    G-FETT Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 10, 2001

    LOL!

    Well, something else that we have in our favour with Ebola is that it doesn't have the ability to mutate and become a contagious, airborne a virus.

    Not sure if it could ever be genetically mutated in a Lab though?

    It's one of the deadliest pathogens known to mankind so obviously it is a real threat, but we're lucky it doesn't have the abilities of influenza virus, for example.

    Interesting.

    I wonder if the slightly lower death toll has made this outbreak more spreadable?
     
  10. I Are The Internets

    I Are The Internets Shelf of Shame Host star 9 VIP - Game Host

    Registered:
    Nov 20, 2012
    My mind is an NC17 John Waters production.
     
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  11. Point Given

    Point Given Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2006

    I was thinking that too, but my friend pointed out that perhaps there are people infected who haven't reached the critical stage yet where death is probable.
     
  12. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    It would be hard to make Ebola airborne, because it's such a simple virus. It has less than ten genes, each of which code for a single protein, unlike, say, HIV, which had hundreds of genes and a proportionately higher number of proteins.

    The way to make Ebola more lethal is to remove the single gene responsible for its pathogenicity (absent in the Reston strain, subject of Richard Preston's 'The Hot Zone'), and splicing it into something airborne, like H1N1 or SARS. Such an action would produce something that would be not only be highly contagious, but kill very quickly as it stripped the endothelial lining from the alveolar capillaries of its victims' lungs. Death would result from literally drowning in one's own blood.

    And it's not hard to do; I learned to splice genes in college, both in molecular biology and tissue culture/virology class. It's an alarmingly simple procedure. The limiting factor are the containment protocols needed to prevent accidental exposure. Biosafety Level 4 labs are expensive and hard to come by, which is probably why no-one has done it yet.

    Tom Clancy wrote a couple books on the subject: 'Executive Orders' (the more realistic scenario of Ebola being deliberately spread to the US) and 'Rainbow Six', somewhat less plausible but still very frightening.

    If the disease did show up in America or Europe, effective isolation and quarantine procedures would likely stop it before it got very far. Still...

    Peace,

    V-03
     
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  13. G-FETT

    G-FETT Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Aug 10, 2001
    Fascinating (and slightly scary) post Vaderize. :)
     
  14. Penguinator

    Penguinator Former Mod star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 23, 2005
    Tom Clancy also wrote a book about a Zaibatsu-controlled Japanese government going to war with the United States because of a car crash involving Japanese vehicles and the ensuing trade restrictions.
     
  15. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 19, 1999
    LostOnHoth recommended Frank Herbert's The White Plague
     
  16. GrandAdmiralJello

    GrandAdmiralJello Comms Admin ❉ Moderator Communitatis Litterarumque star 10 Staff Member Administrator

    Registered:
    Nov 28, 2000
    Well guys it looks like V03 is probably going on some sort of watch list.


    Missa ab iPhona mea est.
     
  17. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 21, 2002
    He doesn't need a watch though. :confused:

    He uses his smartphone to tell time.
     
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  18. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    What makes you think I'm not already on one? [face_devil]
     
  19. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    Scared me to write it, dude.

    Take home point: there are too many people on Earth, and germs are nature's way of trying to cull the herd. I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet, but the biosphere is trying. The viruses I named are glaring examples of this.

    Birth control should be in the water, IMHO; it's the only way to reduce the risk of pandemic.

    Peace,

    V-03
     
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  20. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 21, 2002
    Just so long as Jabba and V03 never meet in person, we'll all be fine.

    Of course, even if they did, no less than 5 pre-planted sniper teams would probably spring into action, lead by all the versions of Jack Ryan. (well, at least 2 of them. The "Sum of All Fears" version can probably stay home)
     
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  21. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 19, 1999
    True, if we combine my knowledge of splicing viruses together with V03's level of knowledge, we'll have V03's level of knowledge and will be virtually unstoppable.
     
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  22. Vaderize03

    Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Oct 25, 1999
    LOL.

    That was funny, Jabba.

    And 44, that's why I have a personal force field, not to mention a golden ring with hidden writing that makes me invisible when I put it on.

    Hehhe....

    Peace,

    V-03
     
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  23. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
  24. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2001

    Interesting you should mention the Hot Zone; I read his follow up book, "Demon in the Freezer", about variola major or smallpox. The book focused on the weaponisation of anthrax and possible weaponisation of smallpox, noting the scenarios around a global outbreak (and that stores in Iraq and Russia had disappeared).

    Vaderize03, correct me if I'm wrong because it's roughly 12 years since I read this book but he was saying something about geneticists splicing the interlukin-4 gene into mousepox, and the effect of this change was that the pox virus was able to cut through an immunised test sample like "a bullet through butter". The theory was that any vaccination against smallpox would be undone by a similar process on the smallpox virus.

    As you can tell, the book affected me as I'm recalling these details 12 years on.
     
  25. DantheJedi

    DantheJedi Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Aug 23, 2009