Solo Solo box-office discussion

Not to nitpick, but "Chewie, we are home!" wasn't in the first teaser, and the movie didn't come out in 2014 either
That was also the very first glimpse at the return of Star Wars. That's hardly comparable to anything that follows. TFA had out of this world hype, of course anticipation for that would be a bit different.

And again, and as Ricardo Funes also mentioned above, people react differently. Most people don't clap, or hoot & holler, most people don't really give any reaction at all. Meaning those few who do react are very likely to give you a wrong impression, or at the very least don't really reflect what the audience might be thinking. Not only is your experience entirely anecdotal, but you can't possibly know what the other members of the audiences are thinking. And even if you knew what they would think, it would still only be a tiny sample size that is all but irrelevant when it comes to audiences as a whole. It's basically the same thing as with trailer views, some people read way too much into it.

Opinions are also entirely anecdotal. I for one didn't really care for the Infinity War trailer. It was okay, but hardly something that made me want to go and see it in theaters. Then again, comic book movies aren't really something that interest me a lot. If someone asks if I want to come along, or if I have nothing better to do, then I might go and watch one of those. It's basically fluff entertainment for me, something that generally does deliver an enjoyable ~2 hours, but nothing that stays on afterwards. I also felt that the first teaser for JW2 was rather meh. The second one improved on that, but not to the extent that I absolutely have to see it either. Deadpool's Bob Ross teaser was kind of cool, but even that leads more to a "I wouldn't mind if I had to see it" stance, and not a "I absolutely have to see this!" one. Then again, I rarely go to the theaters, so creating some interest, even if it doesn't lead to me going to the cinema, is still bette than nothing

 

Those youtube reaction videos are just attention seeking.

I don't recall ever going to a cinema and seeing people clapping and cheering at a trailer, so by that anecdotal evidence no one was looking forward to those films at all. The only way to guage whats going on is when the film comes out and the numbers come in. In the meantime the clickbait doom mongers can keep writing their social media blogs about why this film will fail. Those and the woe is me posts predicting a disaster don't bother me, because I'm looking forward to the film and am old enough not to get caught up in the seemingly modern trend of panning and anticipating failure before anyones seen it. But as mentioned above the anticipation and excitement is now tempered a bit because a new SW film has become such a regular event now.

 

I wanted to stand up and yell "YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!" when I saw the Solo trailer on the big screen last weekend. But I kept my mouth shut and my rear in my seat out of courtesy to the other people in the theater.

 

Even if there's a rather short timeframe of just over five months between the release of The Last Jedi and Solo, I'm still looking forward to this second of the anthology movies with great anticipation... And judging by the trailer, Ron Howard & co. have done a good job of salvaging the movie and it can possibly be a surprise box office hit of the year...

Who's with the Millennium Falcon in predicting that Solo can cross the USD1b mark, following in the footsteps of its three predecessors?

 

Wow Black Panther is crushing the box office. That movie is a money making machine.

This could work out well for Solo's box office. With so many people going to see a super hero in February it might burn off interest for Avengers Infinity War and Deadpool. Fans of both movies will be there opening day in droves, but the more casual viewer may be ready for something new but familiar like Solo.

Five months between TLJ and Solo seemed like such a short time, but in this new movie age when winter films are bigger hits than summer releases it's starting to feel like an eternity. (And The Last Jedi is still in movie theaters)

 

Well, I can say that at Cinemark 24 in Davie, Florida, I have had the privilege of sitting in the theater watching the previews with others and some have hollered and clapped...The movies that were recipients to this were TFA, RO, TLJ, BP, Thor, GOTG2, and Avengers: Infinity Wars. It's happened. I have no reason to make this up.

 

That's nice and all, but it still doesn't mean a thing. Again, you are missing that you have no idea what the entire audience thinks, because making loud reactions isn't something that most people do. And beyond that, your audience is a miniscule number of people compared to those who go to the theater all over the nation, or who watch a trailer through other means.

It's entirely anecdotal evidence. No one said that you made it up, but it simply doesn't mean anything for the reasons listed above.

 

I would be the worst "Youtube reactor" of all times. Even when I am loving a movie or a trailer, my expression does not change a bit.

The only time I vocalized a small reaction was when my jaw dropped seeing Leia in Rogue One. I was not expecting that in a million years. And what I said was a "whaaat?" but it was not loud enough to be heard by someone sitting two chairs by my side.

 

The Last Jedi Box Office Thread just got locked down in the Sequel Trilogy Forum and it's only February 27th with The Last Jedi is still in theaters. Seems more than a bit premature.

Quote:

I think we can shut this down now. The film is pretty much done in theaters so there's not much left to discuss. Locking.

And so it ends.

The Last Jedi could still eek out another 2 million and maybe just maybe squeak past Avengers.

Can we get a little bit of warning before the Solo: A Star Wars Story Box Office Thread is closed in July?

 

Yyyeahhh....despite the fact that most of the BO talk on TLJ was about BP, I still think it was a bit premature to lock the TLJ thread. I mean it's not quite the last day of February. But whatever...

But I guess since Solo is on the horizon, we can discuss other films as well here?

 

@vong333

I am sure they all got a nice pop but none of them can hold a candle to the teaser trailer for TPM circa Thanksgiving weekend 1998 during a soldout late showing of "The Waterboy". You seriously thought you were at a WWE event back then and Stone Cold Steve Austin came walking out. It was near a riot when the trailer ended. People were shouting for it to "play again" even as the movie started. Never seen anything like it. Never will never again. It was 1998 therefore we were still in the Analog Era and it was during a time where big tentpole movies rarely came out but also trailers didn't drop online and were able to watch really easily (a lot of people didn't even have dial up in their house yet crazy as that sounds). And in the case of Star Wars there had been a 16 year gap between movies much of it people just assumed ROTJ was going to be the last SW movie ever made. The anticipation for TPM was nothing that has been or seen since therefore the trailer response in the theater given everything is something that will never be match.

@Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

TLJ box office wise has dead in the water for awhile now. It seems lock for a 6/8 split all time though if it jumped a slot in either spot, it be suprisedly but not 100% impossible (I doubt it though). And it was debated to the point of exhaustion and then some about what TLJ box office numbers meant I had to take a self impose exile from the thread. IMHO all that needed to be said about TLJ box office was said. Time to move on.

@jedijax

I assume we can assuming the focus to be primarly on those movies compare/effect/etc Solo's box office total. So far I see three movies that could make more then Solo that will have it's release date before Solo:

- Black Panther (think it's an absolute lock now that BP beats Solo for the year meaning SW will not have the highest grossing film four years in a row domestically)
- Infinity Wars (pretty likely the chatter/buzz for that is still insanely strong which of course is getting a boost by BP)
- Deadpool 2 (what holds Deadpool 2 back from really being a buzzsaw potentially is the hard "R" rating)

The good news for Solo? I am not all that dazzled at least box office potentially by the slate for 2018. The Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 should do big business but after that? There isn't really nothing that jumps off the page. Ant Man & the Wasp should move up a peg from Ant Man 1 given he is more of a establish character but Ant Man currently is the smallest of the Marvel main characters *pun intended*. As we talk about I am not really feeling A Wrinkle in Time while movies like Mission Impossible 6 are more of your midtier hits that will do nice business but not be a threat to Solo (unless MI: 6 does insanely better then even MI:4 and/or Solo falls on his face). Acquaman could be intriguing in early December but I think the stench of Justice League might really hurt it if it's a good and really feeling nothing but ice coldness from Mary Poppins 2. And everything else is coming out (Ralph 2, Venom, Dark Pheonix, the Rock's two movies, Animated Grinch, Fantastic Beasts 2 etc) all have midtier hit potential to me. Could they surprise? Maybe but just sitting here in late February I am not seeing it. And is there a "It" OMG where did that come from hit in this year's slate that we are not seeing? I am sure there will be but doubtful if they can climb into "It" air and play among the big boys & girls.

Therefore Solo's slate of competiton this year I don't think isn't as strong as it appears during first glance. But I also thought Solo would be tracking more then it currently is. I know it's early but whatever buzz the teaser trailer gave it seems to have die off. I know I talk a lot about burnout effect when it comes to marketing (THG Part III to me is always the perfect example of that, they hype it up way too early and by the time the movie came out, there was marketing fatigue) however we are less then 90 days away. There should be a slow zimmer starting to bubble right now. Yet the pilot light is barely on.....

 

@Luke02 Yeah I agree that BP, IW, DP2, Incred2, and JW2 are the true contenders for Solo. Quite honestly, I am not so gung-ho that I really have to see Solo be at the top. It doesn't have to be there for me and I am not even sure if it's the movie I am most looking forward to seeing.

I don't see any way Mary Poppins 2 will have a big following. I see it as a step up from Into the Woods meets Nanny McPhee. Wrinkle in Time is going nowhere and there is no real buz for Ready Player One.

And your assessment of AntMan2 is right on-just a tad bit more than the first one, maybe breaking $200 million.

This year we will see BP end up #1 very easily and Avengers will once again not be on top since 2012. But IW will probably get around $500 million or so. Then, we will have Solo, Incred2, JW2, and DP2 fighting it out fiercely for the next 4 positions, all being somewhere in the $300's with JW2 MAYBE in the low $400's.

 

Are you talking US or Worldwide? Worldwide, BP will be topped by both the dinosaur movie and IW.

 

Domestic.

 

@jedijax

I am a little more bullish on Ready Player One since there is a strong following for the book so it should do pretty well it's first week but will need good reviews/word of mouth to put up a solid box office total.

I see Solo landing spot being anywhere between Top 3-6. I really do not think it can top either BP and IW but it has a fighting chance to fend off everyone else. If it does, Disney would will have the top three spots (at least domestically) for 2018. Just a monkey making machine.

 

Any news for opening days in japan for BP ?

 

I would love to be in a theater with people who act the way YouTube reactors act, it would be downright hilarious. Imagine an entire theater filled with people yelling, "OH MY GOD!!!! IT'S THE FALCON!!!!! LANDO!!!!!!!! YES!!!!! WHOA... THAT'S WOODY HARRELSON!!!!!!!!" It be more entertaining than whatever movie I was about to watch.

 

Haven't seen any numbers yet, but I wouldn't expect too much. Marvel is pretty small in that market. The bigger movies tend to make a total of around 25m or so, and The Avengers even managed 45m, but if you look at the last few releases, Doctor Strange made 16m, GotG2 10m, Spiderman 25m, Thor 3 10m, you know where this is heading. Seeing how Japan is a pretty slow burning market, the openings will obviously be much smaller. Last expectations were that BP will open behind a local movie and the third weekend of The Greatest Showman, but there are no numbers yet. BP opening on a Thursday makes direct comparisons pretty hard anyway, as the regular weekend is just Saturday and Sunday.


I guess it'll still take a few weeks for Solo to appear in the long range box office forecasts. Box office pro has forecasts for movies up to April 20th right now, so we are maybe a month away from getting some early numbers for Solo. Not that they really mean much

 

I'll go with that.

TLJ is getting close to $619 million. This is where I figured it would end. Maybe its me, but I don't think this movie will be getting the dollar theater's. I could be wrong but with the March release, and the theater counts going down and down this movie may not be lasting very long in the theaters.

 

So Disney have just made the smart move of bumping up Avengers to April 27th giving both Deadpool and SOLO an extra week of breathing room hopefully not cannibalizing their own audiences.

 

Can`t believe we are in a box office thread for a Solo film.

TFA - Performs massive and even above the most optimistic predictions.
Rogue One: Performs in line with the optimistic predictions or slightly above.
TLJ: Performs a bit under what was expected - still solid and above the pessimistic predictions.

2018 looks like a boring year for blockbusters. After the exciting first 2 months with Black Panther hitting big - we are heading for not a very sublime and cool line of big expensive sequels mostly. Summer looks terrible. No Nolan film. Look forward to Incredibles 2 though. The winter season looks even more thin. No Star Wars for Christmas. But that could also be a good thing for business in long term.

Expect us to discuss from the "underdog" position with Solo, compared to TLJ. Its a movie many have less expectations for.
So i expect less complaining and more cheering this time

First: The movie needs to be good of course.
@AndrewPascoe Did they confirm that? Good move from Disney. I did not really understand why they choose to not get the Avengers start running a week or two before the original date.
It might have collapsed in 3rd weekend because of Deadpool 2 and Solo a week later.

 

Do you think BP huge number will boost IW ?
Can't wait for IX BO, hope it will destroy everything.
Solo box office will not be exciting but i hope it will perform over expectation.

 

It will not be as exciting as the saga films, or even R1. But in a way, its a good thing. You can`t celebrate birthday every day.

Have no clue if BP number will boost IW. Its not the same thing at all. Although Black Panther will be in IW, its better to look at them, the two movies who have their own identity. Thats what makes some of these movies able to stand out and surprise us.

Wonder Woman did not boost Justice League at all, but we all know DC run things pretty bad compared to Marvel.

 

We really need to create a poll so we can know what are the expectations here, BEFORE the numbers start coming in and we start fighting over if it was or not according to expectation.

It would be better if the poll had a clear range: <200M, 200M-300M, 300M-400M, 400M-500M, 500M-600M, 600M-700M, 700M-800M, 800M-900M, 900M-1B, 1B+

 

It's been posted on the official Marvel Studios facebook page.