Solo Solo box-office discussion

Deadpool 2 (weekend-2) > Solo (weekend-1)
Guaranteed

 

If by guaranteed you mean guaranteed not to happen, yes. Otherwise, no.

Deadpool 2 is not going to have a 100m+ second weekend, it would need to almost double the last one's second weekend to reach that mark. Even a Justice League like opening would probably be enough for Solo to easily stay ahead of Deadpool.

Just as a comparison: only four movies had a second weekend above 100m, all of which started with over 200m, something that Deadpool won't get close to. There is only one further movie that stayed above 80m, and that was Beauty and the Beast with 90m. Beyond that you have Age of Ultron with 78m. Even with a holiday effect, that isn't even close to 100m. Maybe Deadpool can top 100m over the 4-day, but even that would require quite the performance.

 

LOL & ROFL ...

What people actually do think...

 

Not sure if Deadpool 2 can sustain enough to beat Solo over the Memorial Day weekend (that be the ultimate bomb for a Star Wars movie, not even debut at #1 over a weekend) but Deadpool 2 looks absolutely fabulous!



Only problem? No Gina Carano. She fit Angel Dust well.

 

I see what you did there

Back to Deadpool - I really can't see lightening striking twice there. It's going to have to be something very special to repeat the success of the first because it's been done, we got the joke, and you can't just repeat that for the sequel. Hopefully they'll surprise me (the mustache gag in the trailer cracked me up) but I think it could have a solid opening then weaker legs unless they manage to catch lightening in a bottle again.

 

https://www.cbr.com/deadpool-2-x-force-trailer/

Yeah, the Deadpool 2 trailer looks good. I'm going to say over $130 million opening weekend. I'll I can say is that the second Han Solo trailer has to be a bit better. Right now, I'm stoked by this one.

 

Oh, it does indeed look good, and I think it has a really good chance to out-open the first one

Should have next to no chance to stay no.1 for more than one weekend though. Even if it would completely steal Solo's thunder.

 

Is there room for 3 $100 million OW's in one month? That would be a precedent, wouldn't it?

 

Oh there definately is, not just over the period of four weeks but even in one specific month.

In 2007, Spiderman 3 opened with a record-breaking 151m in early May, Shrek the Third started with ~122m two weeks later, followed by POTC 3 with 128m 3-day / 153m 4-day the weekend after. Well, technically the POTC weekend gets listed as 114m/139m, but it's still above 100m, and the 14m difference in money comes from Thursday previews, which weren't counted to the weekend back then but would be counted to weekends now.

If you count the 14m towards the weekend, the three movies had the 1st, 3rd and 4th biggest weekends of alltime at that point, with only POTC 2 being in between. If you disregard the 14m, POTC 3 falls from 3rd to 5th, behind Spiderman.

We would have seen exactly the same setup this time around, if Infinity War hadn't moved up one week.

 

Ah okay it didn't occur to me that those three all debuted in the same month.

Now, how about 5 $100 million OW's during the summer? I can see this summer AND next summer easily complete that task.

 

@jedijax

It would be unprecedented yes though technically Infinity War opens in April so it wouldn’t be one calendar month or are you just looking at April 20 (Infinity War) to May 25 (Solo) as one month? They all three will definitely open at $100+ million opening weekend (again unless something truly insane happen with Solo and it somehow absolutely tanked which it isnt) and unless I am mistaken has never happened before in basically a 30 day span.

@vong333

Movie Pass better start making more cards because I think more people are going to get them just for the Infinity War/Deadpool 2/Solo trifecta we are about to get at the movie houses.

 

Five in one summer hasn't really happened yet.

2015 had FF7 in early April, Age of Ultron in early May, JW in early/mid June and Minions in early/mid July, with Inside Out starting with 90m on JW's second weekend. So that is three plus a somehwat close one, and FF7, which obviously is too early to count.

2016 had The Jungle Book in mid April, Civil War in early May, Finding Dory mid June, The Secret Life of Pets early July and Suicide Squad in early August. So that is four, plus TJB coming a few weeks prior to that.

If you don't count Infinity War towards this summer due to starting before May, this year could end up with "just" four as well. Deadpool 2, Solo, The Incredibles 2 and JW2. Unless something like MI or Ant Man improves drastically.


@Luke02
See a few posts above, it already has happened, and quite a while back that is

It hasn't happened a second time though. 2014 saw three movies open in May to 90m+ each, but none of them topped 100m. Beyond that, the closest three 100m starters have opened to each other was the combo of The Jungle Book, Civil War and Finding Dory, which had CW start during TJB's 4th weekend and FD starting during TJB's 10th weekend.

 

Yeah, Solo will have a huge opening weekend. It will drop off if it isn't a good movie, but I think the initial rush is still at this point guaranteed for a SW movie. IMO the trailer looks really good, and that is all you need really (for SW I mean).

 

@Oissan I do remember 2014, as dismal as it was overall, coming REAL close with Spidey2, Godzilla, X-Men DOFP, and GOTG all hitting $90 million and Transformers having the ONE $100 million OW. Throw in Winter Soldier in April with $95 million. But ironically Transformers 3 had the highest with only $100 million and the highest for the whole year was Hunger Games 3 with $122 million.

So predictions from me:
Infinity Wars $215 million OW/$550 million dom
Deadpool 2 $130 million OW? $315 million dom
Solo $120 million OW/$320 million dom
Incred2 $110 million OW/$380 million dom
JW2: $140 million OW/$405 million dom
Ant2 $85 million OW/$215 million dom

Feeling presumptuous-2019 (summer only)
Avengers 4: $190 m OW/$490 mill dom
Aladdin: $130 million OW/$400 mill dom
Toy Story 4: $125 million OW/$390 million dom
Spidey HC-2 $100 million OW? $290 million dom
Pets 2 $90 million OW/$250 million dom
Lion King $200 million OW/$670 million dom

 

On BOT, the one guy who used to work at a theater-chain has chimed in on Infinity War presales. He had asked his old boss for some numbers, and got some. Apparently, Infinity War has already outsold Black Panther's presales at that particular theater-chain (I think those numbers were with one week to go or so, not quite sure right now) with five weeks to go. One has to remember that this Black Panther number already was far ahead of every other MCU movie, so this is even bigger.

That being said, he also gave the following comment :
"I thought it might be close to TLJ, but I was hilariously wrong, lol. Star Wars presales are just stupid."

 

@Lee_

The question is what do you consider a "big opening weekend" for Solo? *Beating a dead horse* The record still for Memorial Day weekend is $139 million for Pirates 3. Obviously I think Solo can easily shatter that and think anywhere between $150-165 million would be a good jumping off point. Could it go higher? Yes but traditionally Memorial Day weekend is where Americans get out of Dodge and get out since schools are done and the weather finally has broken. They don't usually wind up at the movie theater but obviously that can change if Solo really does click.

I do think there is a path for Solo to do well but it needs to have a good opening weekend and it needs to find it's niche beyond just the diehard fans among the Jumanji 2 crowd where it's a lot of families who have kids anywhere between 8-15. Deadpool 2 will get the older kids but Solo can get the younger kids with their parents if it's any good and do some nice business. Going to be tough though as it's just a slate unlike we never seen before. And keep in mind Incredibles 2 will come out only a few short weeks later so it needs to find it's audience fast.

@jedijax

Ironically I think two of the best Marvel movies came out that year with CA: Winter Soldier and GOTG 2. Highly doubtful will ever see a year like that again at least in terms of the top movie being only $350 million and it being a non-tentpole movie.

And if Lion King does $670 million domestically, there is a chance Episode IX might not take the top spot in 2019. I could easily envision a situation where it does very well at $650 million and still wind up in the number #2 spot if Lion King really does that type of business.

 

The Lion king have a shot at 1 billion + internationally. It is very popular in europa. So it could end at 1.5 million-1.6 million, how awesome would that be. The 1994 version is the best disney movie ever and if the live action is as good as the Jungle book's live action it could make serious money

 

@ Darth Lurch @Luke02

There is a good chance that LK will top SW9 in 2019 if it is good. It's Favreau so it will be at least mildly good if not great. And I think it will do quite a bit over $1.5 billion WW unless it is just plain dreadful.

I'm more excited to see things play out in 2019 than this year. I am REALLY curious to see how Aladdin does.

 

@jedijax

Yeah Lion King out of all these “cartoon to live action” remakes Disney is doing seems to have the most potential at the box office.

Pacific Rim 2 did $2.35 million last nite so if that holds, it should get the #1 spot just because BP is on it’s fifth weekend.

 

Very good predictions. I like them.

 

Still can't see BP this weekend. Hopefully next weekend. How many theaters/times will it drop next weekend with RPO coming out?

 

Wow i just watched the number of theater for BP, it literally lost only 200 theater in 35 days, i get why its still making big money. TLJ wich is only 10 million behind lost 1200.
On BoM, it says that RPO will open on 4100+ theater so it might take some screen from BP but i think you will still be able to see it easily
http://deadline.com/tag/movie-profits/ On the movie profit tournament by dealines, we now know ranking from 10 to 5. Thats surprising on the top 5 movie at 2017 BO, one didn't made the top 10 here, i hope its not TLJ. I would bet on fast and furious

 

I actually think that, if they can figure out a way to do it right, Little Mermaid would be the biggest.

@Darth Luch thanks for the encouragement about seeing BP next weekend (Easter weekend). I suppose since I'm not so particular about seeing this one in 3D we have more choices. I would NEVER have imagined being able to freely see it in its SEVENTH weekend. And to think that it may STILL have made around $10 million (probably more like $8 or $9 million but still).

So....I put out my IW and Solo predictions. What are everyone else's?

 

Yeah, I think 150--165 qualifies as a huge opening weekend. That's the range I believe R1 was in.

I've said all along that if Solo is a good movie, R1 will be the floor and not the ceiling for its box office; but even a mediocre SW movie at this point will have a big opener (like B vs S). It appears to be much more of a fun, family-friendly movie than the last 2 SW movies, which had comedic moments, but were clearly long and dark shaded. Solo will beat Deadpool for a family movie obviously.

I think it all comes down to reviews and quality- if Ron Howard was able to pull a really fun, quality film out of this, the discussion of box office on in this thread in general will have way understated the box office it comes out with. If it turns out to be a mediocre film, then not so much.

 

I don't really see why The Little Mermaid would have a chance at being the biggest of the Disney movies.

The movie made 84m back in 1989, putting it 13th for the year. That's pretty decent, and a clear improvment over the movies that came out the years before, but even if you add the 1997 re-release, which brings it to 111m total and 211m worldwide, that still pales in comparison to the early 90s releases of Disney. And all that really exists beyond that, is a tv-show with limited popularity.

There's certainly enough interest to turn it into a big hit, but it doesn't really match the success of Beauty and the Beast (146m, 3rd place in 1991, 219m dom / 425m ww if you count re-releases) or Aladdin (217m, 1st place 1992, 504m worldwide) and it completely pales when compared to The Lion King, which made 313m in 1994, 422m with re-releases, with a worldwide total that stands at about 970m right now. The Little Mermaid compares more to the late 90s Disney movies than it does to the early ones. Even if you add some special fondness that it may have over the late 90s movies, I wouldn't put the value of that too high.

I mean, I could perhaps see it creating some level of interest similarly to Beauty and the Beast, though even that would seem to be pushing it, but besting a movie that not only was far more successful all over the world but also lived on through one of the most successful musicals ever - one that does indeed hold the record for highest grossing broadway musical - that seems to be completely unlikely.