Solo Solo box-office discussion

Unless something drastic happens its not going to. In fact, getting to $200 million domestically has been a real drag, and the international numbers don't look promising at all. Someone said that the movie needs to get $400 million to break even. The most we can hope for is that the movie gets as close to $400 million world wide as possible to minimize the effects. That's about it. We can look at numbers and try to rationalize but the obvious is there, just because a movie carries the Star Wars name on it doesn't mean that its an automatic billion dollar escapade. \

The thread shouldn't get locked because of the comment made. The truth is that Solo is tanking, and nobody likes to have negative news rubbed in their face, and I'm not saying that the poster is doing that either. But, Solo is not what anybody expected. On the mediocrity part, I'm going to agree with the poster. When I read that a possible movie in the pipe line involved the Mos Eisley space port, I was like....."Oh boy, memories!" Your not making money out just a story out of a cantina with a bunch of people wearing alien costumes. I dreaded it. I, personally want to see more epic star wars. The big event movies that I remember.

Though, I will say that Marvel has mad 18 movies and Incredible Hulk was the least making of the bunch and Solo has made more than that movie. So that's a positive so far.

 

People are free to talk about the movie's financial performance. That's the purpose of the thread.

But just dropping in to write two sentences saying the movie is bad and is failing? What does that gain anyone?

 

400 Millions ww won`t be enough to break even, not with the massive reshoots almost doubling the budget. Anything upward from 600 Million maybe.

500 Million seem impossible now but Japan could be an unpredictable market. It IS a traditional Star Wars market and if it doesn`t decline like Australia/France/Germany have, then 400 ww are on the table. If it declines at the same rate as those other international markets, then unlikely.

 

Japan's only looking at $20-$25 mill so $380 mill max for Solo......what Solo wouldn't give for Jurassic World 2 numbers

 

No. $400 million is Solo's budget + advertising per the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/03/movies/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office.html). Remember the BO is split between the theaters and Disney/LFL and domestically (if the split is anything like TLJ https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...st-jedi-why-disney-is-pressuring-u-s-theaters), it's probably 65-35 in Disney's favor. The foreign box office split usually being much lower. For example China is supposedly only 25%. So purely on the domestic box office it would need ~615 million to break even.

 

Well, that is mostly just a rule of thumb, a broad guideline, not something you can actually take as gospel. If one were to assume that this was the only source of income (and that the costs of 400m were true) then the ~600m could indeed fit.

That doesn't take into account any ancilliary intake, tax rebates or other sort of deductions studios can get. It's pretty rare to get definitive numbers for a movie. I think the only time something like this was truly made public, was with the stolen data from Sony (or whichever company that was), and that obviously included all the "interesting" accounting companies can do to move numbers back and forth in a way they deem necessary.

The only number I have seen - and it is impossible to say how much truth there is to it - was one of the industry insiders on BOT saying that Solo probably needs around 500m worldwide to cover the costs after all side-deals and deductions were taken into account.

 

Do they count all the box office, meaning May be they just count the tickets bought at the box office but not the Tickets bought on Fandango and The like and vise versa maybe there only counting Tickets from Fandango and online ticketing but not the box office and that's wear they get there Weekend estimates? I also wonder are they counting mom and pop discount theater tickets like The Holiday Cinema in my old town?
http://mdlholidaycinemas.com/
I have seriously always wondered this may be it is just my Obsessive Compulsive Disorder kicking in my paranoia...

 

Everything is counted in terms of box office, no matter if it`s tickets pre-ordered from a specific site or walk-ups to the theaters. And there is no discrimination between theaters. Yes, IMAX brings in more money because the prices are higher but tickets sold at small single-screen theaters count just the same towards the total.

The estimates are of course not the total accurate number but actuals are usual in close range to the estimates so it`s not like estimated numbers are plucked out of thin air. Sometimes they are even higher than actual numbers.

 

In the US, kids are getting out of school right about now. So I wonder if that will lead to a late surge. I saw Solo yesterday (for the last time) and the cinema was 100% full with lots of kids...

In fact, I don't really understand why they didn't wait for mid-late June to release Solo.

 

Bor- Take a look at box office mojo.com. The Solo movie just barely crossed the $200 million dollar maker and internationally it only added another $4 to $5 million dollars for a total international only cume of $151 million, total worldwide is at $353 million. It's not happening buddy, kids or no kids, not everyone warmed up to the movie. Jurassic World 2 is already at a towering total cume of $711 million and it just opened domestically at $150 million, so this movie could be headed to the billion dollar marker soon. Deadpool 2 is already over $700 million and $300 of them domestically. The Deadpool series has turned out pretty good. Ocean 8 crossed over a hundred million. I didn't see that one coming. Incredibles 2 is at a towering domestic cume of $350 million. That movie hauled in another $80 million over the weekend and by the fourth of July or the week afterwards it should be over the $500 million domestic marker.

Black Panther, is getting super close to the $700 million marker, but it will need another $265,000 to get there. It could get there if it keeps up getting numbers here and there and by the end of July it could reach it. Avengers IW is now close to $39 million dollars of surpassing TFA for the worldwide number 3 spot.

I'm happy that at last we got over $350 million (Solo) but its already obvious the movie lost money. Still, the closer to $400 million (total costs) the better. I know a loss is a loss, but its better to lose by a little bit than by a lot. The lesson learned here is that anthology movies cannot have the super big budgets. You have to have Ocean 8 type budgets so that the returns are successful. But, Star Wars isn't really an Ocean 8 type movie either.

 

I think the film definitely could have legs. I could see it in theaters till August may be some theaters in September then and only then can we see if it really picked up and had legs. I still want to see it may be 2 times more and I already saw it 3 times already.

 

Don't do it to yourself. Watch the movie several more times but don't get false inspiration. Solo is not rising or holding at the box office, that's why already on the main site you see the possible cover for the Blue-Ray/DVD from Target. It just barely made over $350 million worldwide. I liked Solo, but false hopes I'm I'm not giving myself especially with the reported numbers. That's like me saying that Avengers IW will get $700 million domestically. It won't. That movie will come behind BP, which was no small feat domestically.

 

I could see it edging close to $500 million WW. Perhaps 470 or so.

 

I could as well which if it was $500 million I would be fine with that better then nothing!

@vong333 Do you have kids or Nieces and Nephews and live in the States? Schools are now just about all out our theaters are packed because the last of the kids just got out for Summer break. its like the uptick in December when kids and teachers get off for the Holidays but think way more because all the kids are off now at the same time. they do it in waves kids in Florida because of the heat get off Early May but the last wave get out mid to late June.

 

^ I can only see it getting close to $500m ww if it gets a huge boost from Japan, but I'm not seeing that happening. The marketing has been even more lackluster than the marketing for RO, and the internet hype around here seems to be lower than it was for RO as well.

 

Well, yes. Certainly better than $0.

 

well there were people in here saying it wouldn't even reach 200 million 500 million would be great compared.

lets compare it too Attack Of The Clones mind you domestic but my question is this possible?

Star Wars:
Episode II - Attack of the Clones

Domestic Total Gross: $302,191,252
Domestic Lifetime Gross: $310,676,740
Distributor: Fox Release Date: May 16, 2002
Genre: Sci-Fi Fantasy Runtime: 2 hrs. 12 min.
MPAA Rating: PG Production Budget: $115 million

 

Solo won't reach $500M unadjusted worldwide in this run. It's gonna put out about another ~$6M-7M this week domestically and another ~$2M-$3M foreign this week and decline more or less week over week (not counting Japan) from there so it ain't happening even with Japan yet to check in.

 

Yeah I don't think it's getting close to $500mil. I think it will be lucky to get $450mil ww.

 

Such a shame Solo wasn’t better received. It deserved a much better BO take, especially considering how similar quality movies have performed this year.

I finally attempted to watch Black Panther this week, and like most Marvel movies, I just didn’t understand the hype. To me it was like a bad version of Coming to America with flat jokes, mediocre GCI and forgettable characters. Shame as the trailers were fantastic.


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I put up a prediction 3 or 4 months ago that it would gross around 700m worldwide. And I thought that was low at the time. I don't understand what could've happened.

Even more disturbing is how much dough that sithspawn Peter Rabbit movie raked in. The sky is falling!

Edit: I was just looking at the B.O.Mojo for 2018)

 

So, plenty of people went to see Solo; the reason it lost money wasn't that nobody went to see it, it was the incredibly huge production cost (duh). It was, even when taking inflation into account, the most expensive Star Wars movie produced to date. If I were Disney/LFL, the lesson I'd draw from that would be to keep production costs in check, not to cancel any planned sequels. Which seems entirely feasible to me; all three prequel movies had budgets of around $115M which in the case of TPM translates to roughly $176M adjusted, far less expensive than "Solo."

Side note: in the past, Disney has made a gigantic amount of money by making direct-to-home-video sequels to its animated blockbuster hits. I wonder why Lucasfilm hasn't tried this route yet. Think of something like the original "Clone Wars" miniseries, which was cheap and successful.

 

People also didn't see it relative for all the advantages that it had of a pre-built IP, characters from Han to Lando to Chewie, props such as the Falcon, one of the biggest TV stars around, reserved theater openings for a certain number of months, etc - many advantages which regular movies don't get. For a SW movie with all those advantages, compared to ones which have to fight to even have a concept which anybody knows about, it's doing very very badly at the box office. Like an inheritor with a trust fund 'seemingly' being successful because they made 20 million dollars which is more than most people, ignoring that their parent gave them a business which normally does a 90 million in business, and that this is a very bad direction to step if you're measuring things that way, which a company like Disney would be. However I'd *hope* that they're also looking at how many movie franchises have seen the same drop based on the movie before. People didn't even turn up to this one to find out if they didn't like it, so it's not this movie which is at fault aside from being a bland concept with bland ads, but then Rogue One had that exact same problem - even worse IMO - and people were still willing to give Disney the benefit of the doubt back then.

I don't think that you can blame Solo for its poor box office performance, though the bland concept certainly doesn't help any, but it's not the first one with that issue.

 

$380 mill ww tops unless Japan does $100 mill which is impossible I'm afraid........