Solo Solo box-office discussion

Domestic? $325 million at most, and that's if it's well reviewed and has good WOM.

 

This movie is coming out in May? Wow. That is a lot of SW in the next six months.

 

Right? Sooner than we think. I'm glad it's May though personally because I don't like how SW gets in the way of the holidays because I've noticed I put all of my shopping away until last minute to focus on the movies releasing. May will feel refreshing. Then a 1.5 year gap will hit.

 

I don't get all these rumors I'm reading about saying Disney "expects Solo to bomb." I'd admit it will likely not make as much as TLJ, but I'm sure no SW movie will "bomb," in the true sense of the word. Then again-it could just be media outlets making the usual big deal out of nothing. I think it will do about as good as Rogue One.

I do agree, it's strange to think we'll already be getting another SW film in less than 6 months! Not that I'm complaining of course

 

I think Solo will probably be the first new Star Wars movie to make under a billion. Partially due to competition from the May release date, and also because it's so close to TLJ. An international box office haul between $700 million and $900 million is the most likely IMO.

 

I think Solo will make $425 million domestically, despite being leagues better than The Last Jedi.

Just an early prediction.

 

I think it has a lot of potential to attract general audiences actually because it presumes no prior Star Wars knowledge at all. It should be fun for everyone, and perhaps more of a family movie than Last Jedi.

But it’ll be the smallest SW film and it has a godawful release date. Disney should move it up a week at least, give it an opening weekend and then second weekend on the holiday to clear it of Deadpool 2 by another week. This date is so bad. I see SW movies a million times and even I’m wondering how I’ll see it many times because of the competition.

I am optimistically hoping for $425M but anything around $350M is solid. There are a few hilarious comments here, like it’ll beat Rogue One but not win the year?! If it beats Rogue One it is winning the year. Infinity War will be huge but it’ll be fortunate to top R1. That’s a TON of money. Don’t get me wrong I expect IW to hit $525M to $575M but that’ll either just barely miss R1 or just barely beat it. I see less than a 1% chance of Solo winning the year.

This movie has different standards attached. Anything over $400M would be a monster win for Disney honestly. Anything under $300M a large failure. I’m just hoping for Upper 300s and brace myself for more nonsense about SW fatigue and blah blah lies and more lies.

Episode IX will be the franchise’s unneeded redemption just like ROTS. Episode IX will be a mini TFA with that incredible calendar built so beautifully for a crazy 17 day run through the holidays. I don’t think it leaves the holidays under $600M.

 

It will be interesting to see whether the general audience has now gotten use to Lucasfilm's new schedule. I’ve always thought this film would be the test. Trust me, there are still people out there who have no idea what the hell RO is. One saga film, then a standalone film, then another saga film and so on. I'm very intrigued to see how Solo will be received, but also nervous. It has to be asked, but is it coming out too soon? Maybe a move to December would have been beneficial? It’s too late now, anyway, as a move now would be a PR disaster and will kick-start the inevitable "Is SW in trouble?" hysteria. After TLJ oddly causing so many people to lose their heads, that’s the last thing Disney and Lucasfilm want.

 

Yeah, I think 'stand aloneness' is probably this movie's greatest asset from a financial perspective. This could give it an advantage against Infinity War, for which I assume that some prior knowledge of the Avengers franchise will be necessary.
Also: The fact that Star Wars is a family franchise should help Han Solo compete with Deadpool 2, which will probably have an R rating like it's predecessor.

 

I'm calling it now. Solo: A Star Wars Story will cap out at 700 or maybe 800 million worldwide.

Which, to be fair, is freakin' fantastic just not TFA / R1 / TLJ levels. But I don't see it cracking a billion. The May release date where it lands in Blockbuster ville will ensure probably a shorter run than TFA / R1 and TLJ did. And, y'know, no Harrison Ford as Han Solo I think is a really hard sell. But, on the flipside, I can't foresee a world in the next 3 years where a Star War doesn't make at least 700 mil. But not a billion dollar grosser, that's for darn sure.

I did see a poster for Solo: A Star Wars Story outside the opening night of Last Jedi, that was really cool. And then it disappeared it seemed a few days later. :/ That counts as promotion!

Oh, okay, I'm calling Superbowl trailer too. That'll be the opening salvo. Yes, I've called Superbowl trailers for TFA / R1 and TLJ but THIS TIME I means it!

 

Best guess...

OW (Dom): $115m
Total (Dom): $325m
Total (WW): $625m

 

I’m not worried about Star Wars fatigue because marvel has black panther in feb., avengers in may, and ant man/wasp in July. All three of those movies will be good, heck look at Thor, guardian of the galaxy vol. 2, and Spider-Man homecoming. Each made over 300 million domestically and over 800 million we, and the fans loved as well as the critics.

The key for solo is once again decent reviews from both the critics and the fans. This movie doesn’t need to make a billion, as long as the production costs and marketing don’t reach the force awakens/the last Jedi numbers. Then it’s a bomb from the start. If this movie can make at least 500 million ww with a 250 split and the costs are down it’s a success. But, knowing us we are going to compare, wish, promote, and demote. Then it’s outright bashing, trolling, and hating.

 

This will probably be the first star wars movie that will be like a regular tiered marvel release.I have no prediction until the trailer is released.

 

Now that I think about it, I feel like releasing Solo in early August might have been the best course of action for Disney and Lucasfilm. I understand the motivation of getting Star Wars films released in May once more, but Solo is their biggest risk to date. It's honestly is more likely to align tonally with the irreverent nature of films like Guardians of the Galaxy and Suicicde Squad, both of which did so well in August with little competition. Obviously, it's probably too late to push the film back now without risking more negative press.

 

I think the market is definitely there for fun, crazy action SW movies that are stand alone stories. Rogue One's last hour had that. If the entire film had been like the last hour, I think it could have done even better at the box office.

So if Solo has that in spades, and gets good reviews, then $400M is definitely a possibility. I think more than that is going to be tough because of the competition.

 

Ugh I know... I’m going to be so annoyed. I am not joking when I say if that’s the case I’ll binge Solo 12 times or something that first week. IMAX is how I prefer to see all big movies and especially SW for as long as possible!

 

Deadpool 2 is now opening a week ahead of Solo:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/h...bit-new-mutants-get-new-release-dates-1073560

I’m not sure if this is a good or bad thing for Solo. I guess either way it’s going to be a crowded month.

 

Yeah, it's tough to say, but at least Solo gets some breathing room going into June.

 

I bet Solo crosses a billion.

 

How much will this movie need to make to break even with its cost?

 

We would first have to know what the costs are before even a rough estimate could be given. Generally you can assume that it takes twice the production budget (meaning production + marketing) to break even, due to the studio only getting about half of the box office intake. TLJ had a break-even point of aorund 800m, if I remember correctly what Kennedy said, so this shouldn't be all that different (more expensive to shoot, less expensive marketing). That doesn't include home-video, merchandise, tv-rights, etc. though. The movie is basically guaranteed to make money when taken as a whole, even if its box office run wouldn't be enough.

 

I know I'm just a pair of tickets, but I'm starting to think I might not even bother with Solo in theaters. There are a ton of movies coming out around that time I'm super excited about. Literally the only thing that interests me about Solo is that it's a Star Wars film - but I was never interested in hearing the story of when Han met Chewie. The fact that the movie doesn't even have a real poster, let alone a trailer, is worrying. Han has been recast with an actor who reports say struggled to give a competent performance. From the looks of it, the entire film had to be reshot. If I, a diehard Star Wars fan, am having trouble wanting to see it, it's going to have to be a total sleeper hit to resonate enough with casual audiences enough to shine through the deluge of summer blockbusters.