Solo Solo box-office discussion

This really means that LFL knows nothing about how China works. Trying to hide that this is a Star Wars movie is such a poor move.

If China does not like Star Wars, then it is ok... save it for the new Rian trilogy, or for the TV series... there will be other chances to make a good cash in that country, rushing it will only do harm.

 

Several outlets are projecting IW to beat TFA's OW.

 

Yeah I saw that earlier and I think that is a massive scretch. IW is just not going to have a massive walk up ground because again schools are in still next weekend including incredibly the beginning of prom season. If it was a summer launch? Yes I really think it can but not end of April. But I guess anything is possible. It’s going to be massive come next weekend.

 

@Luke02 yeah could be. Although, now, I think that $600 million is definitely possible if not likely for IW.

 

@jedijax

Agree and if so, Marvel will have three movies that would have topped $600 million domestically out of eight.

 

Marvel movie are most of the time over hyped except for BP and the first avengers that blowed up every expectation.
Civil war and AoU came under expectation
I think it will be 235-580. I really don't see it beating the OW of TFA and it have huge competition.

 

Where do you see that? I only read the Variety report and its not an accurate projection. Think they are a bit clueless at the moment. But i would be surprised now if it opens under $ 215, 220 mill.

Two things that could stop it from going above TFA:

Mediocre reviews ( unlikely to happen, almost every Marvel movie has been pretty well reviewed in general).
Too much hype/ unrealistic expectations:; We have seen this happen to some movies, also Star Wars. Its like the massive pr machine and awareness at the end is working a bit against the movie. This thing did not happen with TFA though.

 

All based on the same projection that put it between $235-$255 million. So maybe my wording was incorrectly used. Maybe it's not so much a projection but rather being a true possibility.

http://fortune.com/2018/04/19/aveng...have-the-biggest-opening-weekend-of-all-time/
https://www.comicbookmovie.com/aven...-force-awakens-opening-weekend-record-a159632
https://www.northjersey.com/story/l...rs-infinity-war-opening-night-tips/529237002/

To think that Disney will likely have
2015: Two movies over $1.5 billion WW and $450 million domestic
2016: Two movies over $450 million domestic
2017: Two movies over $500 million domestic
2018: Two movies over $500 million domestic and possibly over $600 million domestic
2019: Possibly 5 movies over $400 million domestic-maybe even 6. And possibly 3 or 4 movies over $500 million domestic and possibly SIX billion-dollar movies WW.

 

Just as a minor nitpick, projections can't be accurate or inaccurate. They are projections. They can be likely or unlikely, probable or improbable, and areas in between. But accurate and inaccurate are adjectives that don't make sense for an event that hasn't occurred yet.

Also, don't forget: Low probability events happen all the time...

ETA:

 

^ Yeah i agree with that.

 

Done.

 

Thing about Infinity Wars (which was true about ROTJ way back and even ROTS and Harry 8) is that there is a finite vision that fans want to see. They've been waiting for this conflict for a LONG time and it's the one conflict people have been chopping at the bit to see in this franchise. The movie's plot sells itself. It's an ensemble that takes two segments and smashes them together for the final showdown. It could be a mess but it's the Russo Bros so it probably won't. They've been gold so far.

Not sure about Solo but it HAS to be fun. It's nice to see a young Han but nobody's been eagerly awaiting it. But thankfully it does not matter. Solo isn't going to compete with IW for the highest grossing film of the year or even summer. What is really interesting is the comparison between IW (and also Avengers 4) and Episode IX. IX is the wrap up but, unlike the battle between Thanos and the Avengers, we aren't sure what is being wrapped up. It's more of a wind down than a build up that Avengers 3 and 4 are.

 

That's dang right, like my Vegas Golden Knights being predicted to be "historically bad" and "one of the worst teams in the NHL" and then they storm to a 109 point season, win the Pacific Division, sweep the Kings out of the playoffs, and suddenly it's one of the best sports stories ever unfolding. You never know about the future until it happens

"Never tell me the odds!" I can't wait for Solo, I think it's going to be a lot of fun. I don't think IW will top TFA's OW, but anything is possible. It doesn't seem all that likely to me, I think $225M or so does seem likely.

 

....And the Rockets losing by NINE in the 3rd quarter against the Timberwolves! Talking about low probability events!!!

 

Well, if the Black Panther keeps doing what it is doing at the box office with the weekend holds (last weekend it was $5 million, this weekend $4.6 million, next weekend maybe $3.9 million and so on), in roughly close to two to three weeks it will surpass TLJ total international take. All I can say is what a movie, and a powerful one, and just to think that IW could be even bigger is just....well wow! I think TLJ is already out of theaters. IW will be huge and everything is in play here. To say that it won't or that it can't because TFA is a super duper untouchable film, because TLJ was not, is just.....wrong. Predictions or no predictions, more records will fall. Saying it won't happen won't change the fact that IW is going to be a super movie.

I am happy to see that Ready Player One made over $500 million total worldwide. At least, we now know that the movie is profitable. I really liked this movie, and wish that it could have done more at the box office.

 

This week end BP had a boost be4 IW, next week en well hard to predict what will happen, but it could either do great numbr thanks to IW or fall causeof IW we will see
Itdid only 1.8 million this week internationally, and its not in theater anymore in France so we can say its internation run is over. Can it make 9 more million in the US, well we shall see what happen when IW is release.
And maybe theater will remove lot of screen from BP to gives them to IW, we will know next WE if it will pass TLJ, I hope not, this movie is just bad and TLJ is so deep, so emotional, complex and bold...

 

Ok. In just two days, everybody knows everything about the plot and the reviews are coming in for IW.
This is your chance. Lets have @vong333 predictions for: OW + domestic total + global total. Then we can see if your hype is real

Here is mine:
OW: $ 235 mill
DOMESTIC TOTAL: 590 mill
GLOBAL: $ 1.5 mill

 

Mine :
OW:$ 225 mil
US total : 580millio,
Global : 1.430 billion

 

I have a strong feeling that Solo will overperform well beyond the consensus among BO prognosticators. It looks like a four-quadrant hit to me.

 

Until now SW has enjoyed the comfort of knowing that, by and large, it’s pretty critic-proof. However, I do think Solo may be the film to break that trend, somewhat. I think a lot of people (i.e. - not nerds) will be looking at the reviews more closely than they ever have for a SW film. If it is genuinely a good film and gets really good reviews, it could make a huge difference.

 

What are the BO analyst predictions for Solo btw? I only know about BO Pro (I think?) predicting a $150m OW but I feel that may be probably shooting a little too high. I have the impression this movie will have a lower OW than RO but it can have stronger legs.

I don’t know, I think it’s going to be difficult to tell if Solo will overperform or underperform because I have no idea what should be the realistic BO expectations for this movie, or even its multiplier. It’s a bit of an “outside of the norm” movie. In which it is still a Star Wars movie featuring a universally popular character, but it also contains a Not Harrison Ford actor playing it as well is comes after some controversies and is slotted in a competitive spring/summer.

This movie can as well make between $750m and $1b worldwide neither would be unexpected.

 

@Othini and @Darth Luch I'd post my current IW predictions but you two pretty much seem to nail it. Somewhere in there with a 50% chance of hitting $600 million. The Russo brothers haven't missed a beat with Marvel yet. No reason to think this one will be the first.

Solo?
Gonna just say something nice and round:
OW: $130 million
DOM: $350 million
WW: $800 million

 

@jedijax

I think Disney would be essatic with a box office like that all things being equal. Solo turn out to be a true labor of love therefore I think Disney wants to do well enough at the box office and move on. If it manages to make a $1 billion worldwide somehow like Rogue One, more power to it but it's not something the Disney brass expects to happen.

A Quiet Place has made more domestically then Ready Player One, A Wrinkle in Time & Pacific Rim 2. That is absolutely incredible. It is going to break around $150 in North America which would put it in the Top 5 all time for horror flicks. Absolute fabulous investment by Paramount.

As for Infinity War, will get a good pulse by mid-week once the reviews and early WOM rolls in. At this point I don't see how it doesn't break past $200 million next weekend considering there is so more excitement for this then there was Avengers 2 (which did $191 million opening weekend) but again I am not sure it will raise up past the $220 million mark. Will see.