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Solo Solo box-office discussion

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Anthology (Released Films)' started by dolphin, Nov 29, 2017.

  1. n8storm

    n8storm Jedi Master star 1

    Registered:
    May 24, 2005
    If production is $300 M and say advertising is $150 M, the film is going to have to make a ton of money to breakeven. Suicide Squad had a production budget of $175 and needed to make between $750 M and $800 M worldwide just to breakeven according to the Hollywood Reporter.
     
  2. rocknroll41

    rocknroll41 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    May 28, 2013
    Is it possible that the marketing budget has been trimmed down due to the extensive reshoots? And that's why the film hasn't been promoted yet?

    Instinctively, I can't see the production budget being less than $300 million (due to all the reshoots), and I also can't see the production budget being less than $100 million (and that's assuming my theory of it being trimmed down is correct).

    With that in mind, considering that studios tend to only obtain roughly half of the BO revenue, this film would theoretically have to make roughly $800 million world wide just to break even. Considering that this is Star Wars we are talking about, that might still be possible, but they sure are cutting it pretty tight if these really are the circumstances they're in. Hopefully they'll at least be able to generate SOME profit from this film, however small that profit ends up being in the end.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2018
    Luke02 likes this.
  3. Dr_Cthulhu

    Dr_Cthulhu Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2015
    Well, Rogue One was quite profitable for Disney (it was their most profitable film of 2016, edging out Captain America: Civil War), and its total cost to produce, market and distribute was an estimated $515 million. It's estimated net profit according to Deadline was $319 million. That should give us some idea what Solo needs to do, assuming its cost is in the same vicinity.

    http://deadline.com/2017/04/rogue-one-box-office-profit-2016-1202054697/
     
    Ricardo Funes likes this.
  4. rocknroll41

    rocknroll41 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    May 28, 2013
    Yeah if Solo can do R1 numbers then it'll be just fine, but R1 was kind of a fluke when you think about it. I don't think anyone was expecting a spinoff to do THAT well. If it can happen again for Solo, though, then disney SW will be back in good shape, I think. Good word-of-mouth should help, I would imagine.

    Is Solo going to screen in China? Maybe it has a chance at doing better there then TLJ did since it's a spinoff that doesn't seem to require as much sentimental attachment to the mainline series.
     
  5. Darth Durge

    Darth Durge Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Jan 13, 2018
    Well, it is an origin story for several of the most popular characters in the franchise (Han, Chewie, Lando)...
     
    IlhamKamaruddin likes this.
  6. smudger9

    smudger9 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 29, 2007
    So we’re going to get an origin story, almost certainly no force presence, no prior knowledge required and fast “cars”.

    COULD this succeed in China?


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
  7. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    I don't see any reason why it would. It's still Star Wars, it's not going to be without very obvious connection to the other movies, and it is a spin-off, which aren't exactly known for doing great business in China. Any money made in China will be negligible. This should be more likely to fall even below TLJ.
     
  8. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Solo needs to make 550M worldwide to be profitable.

    This is my expectation.

    The absolute top of the most wild prediction is 700M worldwide.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
  9. vong333

    vong333 Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 18, 2003
    I'm looking at $750 million for the Han Solo movie ww. That is the barometer, $550 is too low. If Howard infuses the old OT style of things this movie will be definitely embraced by the OT fans, which is what its going to need. Also, with Han, Lando, and Chewie, and probably some baddies from the Empire....maybe a Vader scene here or there, and this movie could get close to a RO. At minimum, this movie has to make over $600 million at least. I got faith in Ron Howard he is one of the more established directors out there. In fact, he's got more winners than RJ and GE. JJ was always good with his lost series and several movies that he directed/produced/written, and then of course TFA with its monumental numbers.
     
    IlhamKamaruddin likes this.
  10. Ubraniff Zalkaz

    Ubraniff Zalkaz Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 26, 2014
    I don't see why people are lowballing Solo. It's Han Solo. If the movie gets good reviews and word of mouth spreads, I see this movie passing a billion easily.
     
    Darth Smurf likes this.
  11. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Could someone please make a poll and have it close 1 week before the movie? This time I would love to avoid what happened in the TLJ thread, where people were saying that everyone expected *this* and *that* and such.

    Let's make a poll and put an expiry date on it before the movie, so we can know what we are expecing for real.

    This poll should have $ ranges on it, not just higher/same/lower than R1.

    Mine is 550M Worldwide, maximum 700M. Both numbers will put the movie into profitability.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2018
  12. Darth Durge

    Darth Durge Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Jan 13, 2018
    To paraphrase Solo himself, let's not get cocky.
     
  13. seasider

    seasider Jedi Master star 1

    Registered:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Ironically, I think the controversy surrounding the production of the Solo film will help it at the box office at least on opening weekend. People will be curious to see if Ron Howard pulled it off and how Alden Ehrenreich does as our favorite scruffy looking nerfherder. One thing is clear though, Lucasfilm needs to really knock it out of the park with whatever trailer they have planned.
     
  14. Krueger

    Krueger Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Aug 9, 2004
    I think about 700 WW. Maybe upwards to eight if it’s received very well. Even with a film that no one seems to like, I can’t see less than seven hundred, I think.
     
  15. Marathonjedi77

    Marathonjedi77 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2012
    I'm waiting for the trailer before I make a prediction.
     
  16. IlhamKamaruddin

    IlhamKamaruddin Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 29, 2017
  17. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    After three movies that fell more or less flat for the Chinese audiences, it isn't all that surprising that they didn't put the focus on this being a Star Wars movie. That being said, it shouldn't make much of a difference.
     
    Mostly Handless likes this.
  18. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Host, PT Interview Thread star 10 VIP - Game Host

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    What did RO open on for the weekend?
     
  19. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Rogue One opened with about 155m. But that was a regular weekend, Solo is opening on a holiday weekend.

    Solo should have less going for it though. It doesn't have Vader, it's not the first spin-off, it comes shortly after the last SW-movie and it has much bigger competition. This movie really could be all over the place.
     
  20. Darth Durge

    Darth Durge Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Jan 13, 2018
    Also, Solo will have way more competition in the form of Infinity War and Deadpool 2.
     
  21. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Host, PT Interview Thread star 10 VIP - Game Host

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    Disney really should have delayed it until December. I do not know why though.
     
  22. smudger9

    smudger9 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 29, 2007
    Mary Poppins


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
    Mostly Handless likes this.
  23. CloneWarsFan01

    CloneWarsFan01 Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Sep 1, 2015
    Not just that. Disney wanted a month where Avengers and Star Wars come out in the same month so they can own the summer box office and maybe the yearly domestic box office for a third time in a row. Also, Disney has wanted a Summer release since 2015 with TFA but had to stick with Christmas until The Last Jedi. Now, with Solo coming out on Star Wars 41st birthday, it'll be a celebration for all Star Wars fans to see a Star Wars movie come back in May. That's why when u look at their slate for Disney's Summer 2018 (Avengers: Infinity War and Solo: A Star Wars Story in May, Incredibles 2 in June, Ant-Man and the Wasp in July, and Disney's Christopher Robin, the live-action/CGI Winnie the Pooh continuation, in August), it makes sense for why Disney would want Solo to come out in May. Plus, Ron Howard has been known to get movies finished and out and released on time for their set release date. So, that's why Solo is sticking in May.
     
  24. DarthHutt

    DarthHutt Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Aug 2, 2000
  25. K-2SOS

    K-2SOS Jedi Padawan

    Registered:
    Dec 12, 2016
    SOLO - A Star Wars Story

    Box Office Prediction BEFORE Teaser/Trailer Release:

    Floor: 700 Million worldwide
    Middleground: 800-900 Million worldwide
    Ceiling: 1000-1100 Million worldwide
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2018