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Solo Solo box-office discussion

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Anthology (Released Films)' started by dolphin, Nov 29, 2017.

  1. castlecrasher2

    castlecrasher2 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 31, 2018
    My amateur prediction is 500m domestic if this as divisive as TLJ and 600m if not. I'm basing this on 1) it's coming right on the heels of the most controversial of the new movies, 2) it's releasing literally five months after the last entry in the series, and 3) it's Star Wars movie number 4 in less than 3 and a half years.

    Either way, it will be interesting to see how this goes down. Many people claim TLJ didn't underperform, and I'm certainly not saying that TLJ was this bad but BvS didn't suffer at the box office. Justice League, the next one, did. I doubt Solo would fall off a similar cliff compared to R1, though.
     
  2. Skillzwalker

    Skillzwalker Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Oct 24, 2015
    I have already decided to cut him a lot of slack. Asking too much of him to nail it so I am being very sympathetic to that aspect of the movie in order to give the movie a chance.. Hopefully he does nail it then it will be a bonus.
     
  3. AhsokaSolo

    AhsokaSolo Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 23, 2015
    I think it’s asking too much of any actor to have the movie succeed or fail on his ability to act like Harrison Ford. I hope that the trailer makes it come across more like an ensemble overall. Han barely being in the teaser thing worked just fine, and it prevents that boring question (“how is he at acting like HF?”) from being a distraction. Spoiler alert - he’s not Harrison Ford. HF is one of a kind. Selling the movie based on a HF impersonation just seems like unnecessarily risky business. Sell it (in the U.S. anyway) as a SW film first and foremost.
     
    wobbits likes this.
  4. Dr_Cthulhu

    Dr_Cthulhu Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2015
    I don't think the comparison with Batman v Superman and Justice League is apt, because this isn't a follow on to The Last Jedi and the film has a different writer and director. Movie fans will know the difference. Wonder Woman didn't suffer because of Snyder's failure, for example. The worst that might happen is that the opening weekend will not be as impressive for a Star Wars movie, but if the movie delivers the goods people will come out to watch it.

    My prediction is between $700 and $800 million, with a chance for something higher if it really turns out to be one of Larry Kasdan's best.
     
  5. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Padawan star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    The TV spot for SOLO have more vie than the TV spot for Avengers so far.
     
  6. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Woah, you give some reasons that are all on the negative side of things, yet give numbers that are through the roof ;)
    TLJ is going to make about 620m or so, and that was a regular episode. It would be a gigantic surprise if Solo could make 600m, much less making 500m if it were divisive. With Rogue One ending at 530m with a great reception and the help of the holidays, reaching 500m under worse circumstances and while being divisive would be a huge shock.

    Reaching 500m would probably require a phenomenal reception, if that would even be enough.
     
    Gemlake likes this.
  7. smudger9

    smudger9 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 29, 2007
    Wow. 3.3m v 2.8m. Very interesting.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
  8. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Padawan star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    This is an indication about the hype or the curiosity about the movie, its interesting cause i thought the Avengers Tv spot would crush solo Tv spot
     
  9. wobbits

    wobbits Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Apr 12, 2017
    I went searching for the Solo trailer first. Didn't realize there was supposed to be a new Avenger's trailer yesterday but when I did finally watch it, there wasn't much new footage in it anyway.
     
  10. DarthHutt

    DarthHutt Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Aug 2, 2000
    Judging by the angry nerd-hate for these trailers, I'm gonna go 125/360.
     
  11. Nipuhanipera

    Nipuhanipera Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 25, 2014
    I would argue that it did suffer on opening weekend. It was just notch above 100m domestic. Only after the good word of mouth got out did it start to pick up speed.
     
  12. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Too much competition in May. This is why I am keeping my 700m maximum, and 550m likely.

    And you know I am very positive about these things.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2018
  13. Gamma626

    Gamma626 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 6, 2014
    There's no where near the engagement on social media for Solo as there has been for any of the other Disney films so far. There's a lot of time left before the film releases, so interest could easily build, but right now... I dunno. It's trailer day, and this section of the forum feels like it's barely moved. Even when it does, it's entirely contentious, and not all positive. So I'm really not sure how this one will do.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2018
  14. Dr_Cthulhu

    Dr_Cthulhu Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2015
    But that opening was above expectations: Deadline projected an opening weekend in the $65-83 million range, for example*. Suicide Squad's debut was also impressive, and I believe Aquaman has a shot at doing well because of the lack of involvement by Snyder.


    *http://deadline.com/2017/05/wonder-...ng-worldwide-projection-gal-gadot-1202104439/
     
  15. IlhamKamaruddin

    IlhamKamaruddin Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 29, 2017
    $800 million worldwide is my estimate for the time being. Solo, to me, is a dark horse. It's going to surprise many, many people from the looks of the teaser trailer, and hopefully the movie itself will.

    Who knows, it might do better as we get closer to the date of release.
    Plus, Ranger Solo might actually do well in China.

    We'll see how it goes. :)
     
    wobbits likes this.
  16. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    It will not going to do well in China. I am surprised LFL even cares about trying to release this movie there.

    If it makes 20m in China, I will be surprised. I expect China to ignore this movie, and a realistic projection would be 14m.

    The recipe for big Box Office in China does not match the recipe for a Star Wars movie, at least for now.

    Let's see if the new trilogy, set in a completely unrelated era, can do better
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  17. Darth Chiznuk

    Darth Chiznuk Superninja of New Films star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Oct 31, 2012
    I'm gonna say 3 billion domestic and about 154 billion worldwide. I think that's a fair estimate.
     
  18. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Pesos? [face_laugh]
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  19. Darth Chiznuk

    Darth Chiznuk Superninja of New Films star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Credits.
     
    wobbits and Ricardo Funes like this.
  20. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    [​IMG]
     
  21. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    First, the Superbowl teaser was fantastic. Everybody saw it. The teaser trailer was even better. That's the positive.

    Second, I think some people have underestimated this movie's break even point. It may need $800 million worldwide just to break even. Possibly even more. Production plus marketing costs could easily come in close to $500 million for this movie, and Disney gets about half the box office revenue give or take. It may need $1 billion worldwide to turn a profit.

    Third, as others have noted, the movie stands or falls on audiences accepting Ehrenreich as Solo. That's it. There's just no way to know until you've seen it. The teaser did a lot of good, but it didn't really make that case. The good news is this is a post-opening weekend problem. Disney will make sure that the movie has a big opening weekend.

    Fourth. Big opening weekend. Franchise momentum. Star Wars remains the biggest, bestest movie brand in the U.S. Its opening weekend will be pretty big, well over $100 million. Even if falloff is TLJ-esque, it will likely carry the movie to a minimum of $350 million domestic, assuming a reasonably competent movie.

    Fifth. "Reasonably competent" is a big assumption this time. Writing and execution. This is the most troubled Star Wars production yet in the Disney era. More dramatic than Rogue One, more comprehensively thrown into some kind of turnaround effort. Ron Howard has always been a poor man's Spielblucas. Could he salvage it? If it's even more poorly written than Rogue One which has some of the worst dialogue writing of the franchise, and more poorly executed than the most problematic parts of TLJ, and if that's compounded with a generalized rejection of Ehrenreich, then maybe $350 million isn't the floor. It could be a genuine box office rout with bad word of mouth leaking out ahead of opening day and bringing the movie in at under $600 million worldwide.

    The worst case scenario is much worse for this movie than for any other Star Wars film to date.

    But the best case scenario is also pretty good. Franchise goodwill, a great performance from Ehrenreich, a successful turnaround, and the thing could blow past Rogue One and do $1.1 billion or more worldwide.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  22. Gemlake

    Gemlake Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Dec 9, 2015
    I think Disney would be happy with those numbers. Thor was 123/~320, and was highly anticipated, with strong early buzz, a favorable release date, critical acclaim (92 Rotten Tomatoes score) and an overwhelmingly positive fan response. Thor also made 112 in China, and it is highly unlikely Solo will come close to that. Of course, this is Star Wars, with its Star Wars size fan base. But it also is a fan base that is divided at the moment, and has never seemed that interested in a Han Solo movie.

    I agree. I am hoping that the movie does well. I enjoyed the trailer, and I have faith in Kasdan and Ron Howard. But I'm getting the sense that "ok" and "fun" may not be enough, especially if audiences don't buy Alden as Han. If the Rotten Tomatoes score is low, and early buzz is negative, watch out. The floor may be a Justice League type of run.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  23. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    $430 domestic. $900 WW.

    There is so much competition this summer. I think most of the movies will do solid numbers making for an overall breakout summer but none of them will be a huge break out hit individually. The movies coming out in later April / early May could get a boost over Solo just by coming out earlier. Solo being something that is sort of new and not being a super hero movie could work in it's favor.

    Solo being the 4th Star Wars movie in three years will effect how much movie the makes too.
     
  24. BucMan-55

    BucMan-55 Jedi Master star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2004
    I predict there will be more people who see this film than R1, but will sell less tickets overall. What I mean is it won't have as much repeat business so will probably make less at the BO. There will be many SW fans who do not see this at theaters, and thus reducing the pool of people who would be willing to see this film multiple times. Han Solo will sell tickets if only for the curiosity of seeing if Alden can pull off Han.

    450M Dom, 920M WW.

    Edit: Just read JSSD's post, Yep, that's a raise ya of 20m.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  25. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    A Star Wars movie has been number one at the domestic box office for three years running, but there's a very good chance the streak is about to be broken. Infinity War is going to be the biggest movie of 2018 worldwide with I'd say 85% certainty, but Solo could conceivably win the U.S. domestic title for a fourth year if it's (a lot) better than expected. Jurassic World 2 is going to see a big domestic downturn, and I can't think of anything else that's really a shoe in for $400 million or more at the box office in the U.S.