Solo Solo box-office discussion

IW looks to me like it is going to be overloaded to the max. It could suffer from that if the story is affected.

 

IW : 450-550
Solo: 350-475
So if Solo does its best and IW don't work well there is a chance, it would be awesome to see that happening
Internation there won't be a match, i think it will be 300-400 million for Solo and 850-1 billion for IW

 

Solo might not beat out Deadpool 2 domestically let alone Infinity War. I am more a bit more bullish on Solo’s box office potential but I do not think for a moment it will capture the crown for 2018 even domestically.

 

I’m not saying this in a mean way but the article on the front of TFN about Solo’s box office potential was laughably bad and shows no understanding of the box office. A $100M opening weekend is unlikely?! Hahaha a $100M opening weekend is ASSURED. There is zero chance it doesn’t make $100M even if we’re just talking about the three day portion of a four day weekend. Previews alone lets be pessimistic and call those upper teens (they were upper 20s for Rogue One so this seems fair), then you’re still going to have a good solid $50M opening day, $40M Saturday, $38M Sunday maybe (it’s the same as Saturday, next day is off for everyone), and a $25-30M Monday. I don’t see what world someone is living in if they don’t realize it’s hitting about $150M in its first four days. Or more.

 

I am not so sure. I still think the top for Solo is 700m, with 550m likely.

This means DOM 350m top, or 275m likely. If we use a 2.5 multiplier, then opening could be maybe 140m top or 110m likely.

 

I don't think there's any chance Solo finishes below $300M in the U.S. Could it hit just $330M or so? Sure, yeah. The range for me is $325M to $425M though stateside. I think upper 300s. But it's opening strong, and saying $155M for 4 days when Rogue One did that in 3 days isn't an optimistic prediction. It's rather pessimistic but I think will prove to be about on the money.

I agree though worldwide maybe $800M for Solo if all goes well, somewhere $700M to $900M.

 

Agreed. $700-800m is the likelihood, I would think.

 

The optimistic side of me thinks Solo can reach, and even surpass, $900m WW with a bit of a boost from the international markets. It depends on how the movie is presented, but I think this has a better chance of doing, well, better in China and other Asian markets than TLJ. The ST relies too much on previous SW knowledge and fan attachment to nostalgic characters and actors to emotionally connect to the main plot points; Solo can be presented more similar to Guardians of the Galaxy-style if it assumes a portion of the audience won’t come in already familiar with the concepts.

Of course, there is always a big chunk of the BO that will come from SW fans, but there is also far less hype for this movie than there was for Rogue One, so I think the BO result will also depend a bit on the markets that have no emotional attachment to SW and are just in for a fun adventure.

 

I'd be very surprised if this would work in the non-traditional markets. I think it is more likely that it will make the least of all the new movies there. Especially since it will still be Star Wars in most of these markets.

700-800m worldwide sounds like a good number to target without having any data to judge it on. Maybe up to 900m if the domestic number is really big (= approaching 500m), or 650m if the opposite is the case.

This movie really has a broad range.

 

^ Disney is removing the "Star Wars" title from the Solo movie in some markets like China, so yeah, there is a chance to work if they manage to distance the movie from the Star Wars brand and make it look like something new. They are surely trying at least.

 

I know that, but that is just China, it doesn't affect most of these markets. In most of them this will be nothing more than a spin-off of Star Wars, which hardly attracts the masses.

I doubt that it will have much of an effect in China either. People aren't stupid, not putting a focus on the name Star Wars is hardly something that is suddenly going to make the franchise appeal to the masses. It was a good idea to try this, because adding the name of the franchise to the movie wouldn't have done it any favours, but I don't think it will change much. I also doubt that the look and style of the movie is going to work there, science fiction usually works best in China when it is colourful, this one has a pretty bleak colour theme.

 

You'd be surprised to know how many Chinese people have never seen a SW movie or have no feelings regarding it, even with the release of the latest three. I know a few of them, personally. It's a country with way too many people. Good WOM can change if there is sufficient number of people liking the movie with no negative feelings attached. Which is why I can see the strategy they are going with Solo, could have some results. I don't expect $100m there, but if the movie makes $60m, that can make some difference in the BO and can go a long way to make the way for future of SW movies there.

 

120-140 3day OW
140-160 4day OW
350-400 DOM
700-850 WW

 

Hey Ricardo Funes!
What's up??
Never heard back from you regarding my offer about the box office bet.

Solo: A Star Wars Story will never in the world make under 700 million worldwide.
The teasers only reinforced my believe in my early prediction. Maybe i'll revise it up in the coming months.
But 700 million is indeed the absolut floor for this #HanSolo movie.

 

Hey @K-2SOS

I guess this is a Win-win scenario. I would love to lose this bet !

I will stick with 700m as the top, basically due to the huge competition in May.

 

IF Solo does more than a billion do you think there is a chance that EPIX get release in may too ?

 

Nope, it needs time.

 

Why should the result of Solo have any impact on IX?
They already know where money can be made, they don't need Solo for that. And seeing how they just moved IX to christmas when Abrams took over, what possible reason could they have to move it to May?

There simply is no advantage in a move to May.

 

I don't maybe they will see may is a better month for SW

 

But how exactly would Solo making the least of all new Star Wars movies say that May is "better for Star Wars"?

With a Marvel moving coming out early May, and Hollywood throwing most of its big movies into the period from late May to early July, May doesn't offer anything that December doesn't top easily. While there are also quite a few releases around christmas, the holidays do allow for more movie to work at the same time. Not to mention that the competition sees a lot less blockbuster movies than May/June does.

They were smart enough to move IX to December, a date they should have picked right away. They aren't going to move away from there unless production completely falls apart.

 

I don't know if it does real good number maybe they will think about a may release for future film
Maybe May release will boost international market a lot i don't know

 

A May release wouldn't boost any international market, if anything it would be the opposite. Star Wars' strongest international markets actually play best during winter, something that Hollywood has ignored for a long time. In terms of box office, December is the best month for Star Wars.

Seeing how the Solo movie is set for May, and IX was also before it got delayed due to the director change, odds are that we will see at least some future SW-movies being set for May again, but none of that will have anything to do with it being best for the franchise. With Avatar soon becoming a Disney franchise as well, and with its start dates of December 2020 and 2021, you can be sure that no SW-movie released in those years will end up starting in December.

 

Don't think it will happen because Lucasfilm already had a movie coming out in Summer 2020. Indiana Jones 5 comes out in July 2020 and Lucasfilm won't want two of their films released so close together. With December 2019 release for Episode 9 all the marketing and merchandise including home video sales will be wrapped up just in time for the Indy 5 PR push to start.

What a world we live in. Imagine, for Christmas 2020 there will be a Star Wars and Indiana Jones film that weren't available on home video the previous year.

 

For the Han Solo movie, my optimism went up after reading that GL was on set with Ron Howard. That's a great thing. Now on to the numbers.

As far as Episode 9 being moved to May, it won't happen. Everything is set for that time frame and quite frankly why change it since the last three movies that Disney Star Wars have come out. Have been super phenomenal. It's going to suck not seeing Star Wars for X-mas this year. Got use to it the last three years.

Is May a better month for Star Wars? If you look at the PT movies that came out in May, none of them made a billion dollars on a first run basis. It took TPM close to 13 years after it came out, to get a Feb. 2012 3-D re-release to push the movie over a billion dollars un-adjusted. I don't mention the OT movies because the box office was different back then. While the numbers are lower, they sold a lot of tickets. In that case their adjusted numbers are more of an accurate representation of the amount of money made in today's dollars. The OT revolutionized the May (Summer calendar) as being the month for super block busters. The only negative with the OT, is that if those movies were released today, would they sell like before? And there are many tangents on that but will not get into them here.

Han Solo? Will it bomb? No, I agree with Bowen. This movie will open north of $100 million domestically, possibly close to over $200 million internationally. Many factors to consider, with the first one being the critics once again validating the movie, and second, the star wars fans liking it. If that second part comes out, then you can see many of them going to the movies to support it. The problem: Deadpool 2 with Ryan Reynolds is going to rock, and its roguish at its best. The first one was very good. Avengers Infinity Wars is not going to suck nor make $350 domestic and $700 total worldwide. No way jose on that one. That movie will be super huge. You have all the actors in it, the characters, I mean, this is the movie event of the year right there. Marvel's ROTJ, where everything is on the line.

I will be very happy of the Han Solo movie did not cost an arm and a leg. If the cost is like $125 million and can make over $300 million domestic and at last $600 million worldwide I'll be okay. Their AOTC numbers, but it still will be a success. In May we are going against two very powerful Marvel type movies. There is no way of looking around it, and after that we move onto June and July. Jurassic World 2 is going to be a very good movie. Looking at that one to make at least $1.35 billion worldwide. Avenger is going to be around $1.75 billion, Deadpool 2 close to a billion if not a billion worldwide.

 

It might not be that easy, though. It still has the Falcon, Chewie and other familiar elements.