Rumor Star Wars Episode VII coming out in Dec 2015?

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Episode VII - Spoilers Allowed' started by Momotaros, Nov 5, 2013.

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  1. jedijax Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 2, 2013
    star 4
    SW can make at least $150-160 million in its first weekend no matter what. Add to that the possible Wednesday and Thursday totals if it's released mid-week and you have $260 million easily from its first five days.

    If it is released in very early December, it will make another $100 million during the Christmas holiday on weekends alone with summer-like mid week totals during the holidays.

    Therefore, by the end of the New Years weekend, the film could easily pass $400 million (possibly closer to $450 million). Then it will drop steadily after that but level off due to low January competition.

    All in all, the film could make upwards of $500 million from a December release.

    Hunger Games will be released around Thanksgiving so if SW has a December release, it will be at least two weeks after that.
  2. darthfettus2015 Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Nov 15, 2012
    star 3
    on further enquiry it seems the memory of my barely 6 yr old self failed me, Star wars opened in london 27th december 1977 but did not open around the country til the end of January, which is when I saw it in Liverpool
  3. TheStorm Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Apr 8, 2002
    star 4
    Eh Dates are arbitrary to me, anyway we look at it the film will make lots of money. Actually I would love a Star Wars Christmas, even just once. All the stuff to buy would be great alongside the holidays.

    But I do have to agree Avatar was an odd anomaly. It was not a long term ordeal, after ANH was released the massive fan base sprung up and has only grown over time. With Avatar....you really don't see many "hardcore fans" It was a gimmick to me, and I doubt the sequel will do near the numbers the original did.

    That said I think SWEP7 if really a superb film could do great numbers, even high domestically. No one ever thought any of the Bat films would break 500 million domestically, and it sure did. So never say never. If the film is an amazing film you will get massive numbers.
  4. Qui-Riv-Brid Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Apr 18, 2013
    star 3
    Right from the start I thought the Summer 2015 was ambitious to say the least.

    Once we learned that GL had been working on the ST for possibly up to a year and a half before the sale went through I thought that maybe it was going to be possible but remember that was stories for the entire ST not only VII so even if Arndt had a full treatment for VII and was working on a draft or two the rest of the work by Abrams and co would have to largely be done in a 2.5 year period.

    I really have a hard time seeing how that would work. SW and TPM took 4-5 years each. The first film in a trilogy is so important and sets up everything else so much in so many ways that I think 3 years from when JJ came on is the least amount of time needed.

    If this ends up as a May 2016 release I will not be surprised.

    Consider though that we thought that there would never be anymore Star Wars films so this slight delay (if it happens) is hardly a real concern.

    If they think they can actually get it out as planned they will if not then it'll just be out a bit later.
    Last edited by Qui-Riv-Brid, Nov 6, 2013
  5. Mystery Roach Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Mar 10, 2004
    star 4
    I wouldn't be so quick to count out Avatar. There's every chance that as the sequels get closer the public at large will get much more excited for them, and if they are great then as a franchise it could really cement itself among the best of them. Cameron seems to have faith in them and must have some stories to tell considering how many he has planned, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt because I thoroughly enjoy the experience of watching the first one, 3D or no. I remember people a lot of people saying Avatar would fail but Cameron proved them all wrong, and the same thing happened with Titanic, so I just don't think it's ever a good idea to underestimate him.
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  6. DARTHVENGERDARTHSEAR Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 8, 2002
    star 4
    That's what people said back in '99 when The Phantom Menace was supposed to beat Titanic.
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  7. ezekiel22x Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 9, 2002
    star 4
    Yeah, just because Avatar hasn't caught on as an internet darling doesn't mean mass audiences won't be eager to dive back in. I highly doubt Episode VII will "slaughter" it.
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  8. Krueger Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 9, 2004
    star 4
    Well, I’m a firm believer in that there’s no smoke without fire. It’s looking like either a December 2015 release, or a summer 2016 release. Either way, two years or just over. I can wait.
  9. markdeez33 Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 25, 2013
    star 3
    Phantom Menace also suffered from BAD reviews. Ep 7 is going to be a nostalgia trip, so people are going to flock to it, even more than Ep. 1... The hype train is going to be enormous and the response is going to be positive
  10. Gallandro Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jul 8, 1998
    star 4
    No it didn't. Guess I have to whip this one out again:

    http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/sta...uels_actually_better_reviewed_than_originals/

    Phantom Menace, during its original release in summer of 1999 was certified "Fresh" on Rottentomatoes with the fourth highest rating of the Star Wars series behind Revenge of the Sith (the best rated film of the Saga), A New Hope and Attack of the Clones. Additionally, TPM received a Cinemascore grade of "A" from audiences... so audiences enjoyed the film as well. You're "facts" are simply clouded by your own nostalgia and love for the OT.

    The reality is not everyone loves Star Wars, as I posted earlier the actual ticket sales numbers show that Star Wars films average between 75 million to 85 million tickets sold. A New Hope is the one exception having sold 94 million tickets, and that makes perfect sense because original films tend to do much better than their sequels. Phantom Menace has the 2nd highest number of ticket sales among Star Wars films with roughly 85 million tickets being sold. so those numbers are probably a best case scenario. In reality I suspect Episode VII will perform more like the Avengers simply because big budget action spectaculars are, well... pretty common.

    Finally you cite the "nostalgia" factor as a reason for Episode VII to do so well. For nostalgia to have any kind of impact on box office it requires your subject to have been gone from the public eye for some time... Star Wars has been anything but that since 2005. During the release of the Special Edition we really had no interwebs, Star Wars was really only present in comics and book shelfs... toys finally began coming out again, and the only way to watch Star Wars was on crappy VHS or laserdisc. Fast forward to today... Star Wars is everywhere. A cartoon series just ended its run with another one on the way, Star Wars is all over the place being used to hock ice tea and cell phones, and to promote the Disney parks. Add to that you still have all of the merchandising... even more so than 1997. Finally Star Wars is referenced on TV all over the place from shows like The Big Bang Theory to NCIS and all sorts of other shows. That's going to negate almost all of the "nostalgia" factor you're citing, because Star Wars is now part of the mainstream consciousness... it's everywhere.


    Yancy.
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  11. sluggo1313. Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 23, 2013
    star 4
    I'm sorry, trying to say that TPM was well recieved at the time is ....... laughable.

    Some people loved it, some critics loved it. But many others hated it. Here is a review Kevin Smith posted in May 1999, the same month is was released, and whil ehe liked it he addresses many of the same issues people have with the movie today right off the top - too much Jar Jar, bad child acting, to much CGI. He even says go in with low expectations. http://viewaskew.com/press/menace.html
  12. EHT Manager: New Films

    Manager
    Member Since:
    Sep 13, 2007
    star 6
    For every positive review someone posts of TPM, someone else can post a negative one, and so on. Nobody's winning.

    At any rate, I never saw Avatar but my impression was that a lot of its success had to do with its more prominent use of true 3D than other movies up to that point... so many people went to see it for that reason alone. That would not really be a repeatable formula for success now.
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  13. T-R- Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 13, 2003
    star 4
    Exactly. I went to see the 3D, as did my friends. Having seen it, it doesn't mean that we'll see the sequels. Unobtanium.....seriously? Star Wars is ingrained in the culture and lexicon. Avatar isn't.

    *edit*

    I think the only thing that can hurt EVII at the box office is if there isn't enough Luke/OT3. That's what most movie goers are expecting, and the one thing that can disappoint. I'm not saying it wouldn't be a huge success, but that is the 1 thing that can hinder it from turning back into a phenomena.
    Last edited by T-R-, Nov 7, 2013
  14. EHT Manager: New Films

    Manager
    Member Since:
    Sep 13, 2007
    star 6
    Haha... "Unobtanium". I remember the Simpsons making fun of that part in the episode that played off of Avatar... I think it was in one of the Treehouse of Horror episodes.
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  15. Gallandro Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jul 8, 1998
    star 4
    Wow I really care about Kevin Smith's opinion. What I actually care about are tickets sold and butts in the seats. TPM had the second highest ticket sales of a Star Wars film during its initial release, in fact between Empire and Phantom Menace the numbers aren't even close. Clearly the movie resonated with audiences. You and the geek culture may have been disappointed, or may have not even liked the film, but it just goes to show what little actual buying power that audience has... anyone remember "Snakes On a Plane" the "sure fire" hit that geek culture was going to ride to box office gold?

    We geeks tend to have a very elevated opinion of our own importance when it comes to the culture in general. Sure we have an impact, but mainstream audiences are who the folks at Disney are trying to attract. And if JJ and company try too hard to service geeks or the Star Wars fanbase too much with the next movie they run the risk of alienating general audiences, and they will be pretty disappointed with the box office results. I'll go one further... I don't think the spin off movies are a good idea at all. Star Wars has always been an ensemble piece, do you really think general audiences want two hours of a Boba Fett or a Yoda movie complete with CGI/puppet? Talk about your fan "servicing," that type of fan masturbatory crap may be what actually does the franchise in.


    Yancy
    Last edited by Gallandro, Nov 7, 2013
  16. Oissan Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Mar 9, 2001
    star 6
    No, not really. Especially not the way you word it. Regardless of what you may think, most things point to TPM being modestly popular, with far more people liking it than not. What makes things a bit more complicated is that people who dislike things are more likely to complain than people who like something are going to defend it. The movie certainly wasn't an extremely popular movie that everyone loved, but the idea that it is universally hated is flat out wrong.

    None of that matters really when it comes to the idea that TPM performed worse than it could have because of bad reviews. That's simply not true. TPM had downright phantastic holds over its entire run. The worst drop was by 36%, only two out of the first ten weekends had drops over 30%. You will have a hard time finding any blockbuster that managed similar levels. The only ones who truly exceed it are Titanic and Avatar. None of the other hit movies even come close.
    If TPM had truly been hit by bad word of mouth or bad reviews, it would have dropped like a rock, which didn't happen once in its entire run.
  17. sluggo1313. Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Aug 23, 2013
    star 4

    You don't have to care about his opinion, but unless you think he was making up critisms of the movie in his review, its just proof that there was a lot of negative talk about that movie at hte time.

    Tickets sold don't = everyone loved it. Espically not critics. Your statement was that the movie was "fresh" when it released, basically saying it wasn't getting negative reviews, which is wrong. It got LOTS of negative reviews, from both critics and fans. If you want to talk about how successful it was, thats a different thing. ANd in terms of adjusted dollars, TPM is 4th on the Star Wars list (behind all 3 original movies), with AotC and RotS much further down the list, and it could be argued that the mixed/poor recieption of TPM hurt what those 2 movies could have done. And TPM is still 4th in tickets sold - http://mrob.com/pub/film-video/topadj.html

    And if your argument is good box office return = good movie that resonated with audiences, if those spin-offs make money wouldn't you have to say they were a good idea?

    I never said it universelly hated, but the claim that it didn't have bad reviews is just false.
  18. The Hellhammer 7SA Forum Interrogator

    Game Host
    Member Since:
    Nov 4, 2012
    star 5
    I honestly thought that I had misheard that the first couple of times when I watched the movie.
    That's one of the stupidest names I've ever heard in a movie pretending to be serious.
    Last edited by The Hellhammer, Nov 7, 2013
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  19. T-R- Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 13, 2003
    star 4
  20. ezekiel22x Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 9, 2002
    star 4
    Eh, unobtainium didn't bug me. I was already familiar with the term as a science fiction concept, and sheer creative originality has never been a major reason why I think Cameron is a good filmmaker Similarly, the first time I heard the word youngling was not in the prequels, so that didn't bother me either like it did for many fans.
  21. PrincessKenobi New Films Manager of DOOM

    Manager
    Member Since:
    Aug 12, 2000
    star 6
    I'm sure it's been said but you should just push it to May 2016. Call me a traditionalist or what have you but Memorial Day weekend is and always will be Star Wars.


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  22. T-R- Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 13, 2003
    star 4
    Yeah, but the difference is youngling was used according to it's definition.

    Unobtainium was used as a name for a new element on Pandora.

    It's like calling it "the McGuffin." It takes you out of the movie. They should've made up a name that would sound real.
    Last edited by T-R-, Nov 7, 2013
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  23. ManaByte Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 20, 1998
    star 4
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  24. T-R- Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 13, 2003
    star 4
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  25. Corax78 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 2, 2008
    star 2

    I'm going to play devil's advocate here and say this. Another way to look at this is that under Arndt, Kennedy wanted the movie pushed out to 2016, Disney wanted 2015 and with Abrams and Kasdan taking over they can hit the 2015 deadline in December.
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