Amph Summer Box Office

I keep hearing people think Godzilla is, critically, not that great, but the numbers prove it's doing something right. A few things I've read have also suggested it could indicate a change in coming blockbuster seasons - that formulaic structure we've been seeing these past I don't know how many years is giving way to good directors having more control over their popcorn flicks. It seems a bit tenuous, but it's an interesting thought.

 

I don't think so. Directors aren't allowed much control over the Marvel films, for example (can anyone honestly tell that Branagh directed Thor, or aside from a few jokes that Whedon directed Avengers?) and I don't think that's ever going to change. Michael Bay has a good amount of creative control over Transformers because he seems to able to get money for anything, but he's a terrible director. We'll see how Star Wars goes, but I wouldn't expect anyone to be allowed much freedom.

 

How is Hercules being discussed as even a possible hit? There is no way. It's going to bomb. It doesn't belong in the same conversation as Apes, Guardians, etc.

 

I don't know what the buzz is on Hercules box office potential from the "experts". I'm guessing that with its release less than two weeks away, the focus will soon shift to speculation on its chances (of late, there seems to be more interest in a movie's performance than its merit). But I increasingly feel as if this is going to struggle, if not exactly outright bomb.

It began while perusing its IMDb board. Initially I chalked up the slew of "It looks terrible!", "This is going to FLOP!!!" comments to the anti-Ratner element and the Indefatigable negativity of the internet. But then I saw the trailer with an audience, and there were audible groans and laughter at Johnson's "I...am...HERCULES!!!"; Something clearly meant to be a signature line. This experience has been more or less repeated every time I've seen the trailer with an audience. And my friends and co-workers--the bulk of them "popcorn" movie fans--have zero interest in this film.

I foresee a situation similar to 2010's Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, which did roughly $90 million domestic, and something like $240 million elsewhere. They say a prophet is welcome everywhere except his hometown. With Hercules, I suspect that a profit will be made everywhere except his hometown.

 

I do know there were some that thought Dwayne Johnson was wrong for the role. We'll see.

 

Plus Dwayne Johnson has hair in the movie

That's weird.

 

$73 million opening weekend for POTA, but only $30 million outside the U.S. Looks like the road to profitability will be difficult.

 

And Transfomers leap frogs all Marvel character movies to become the most successful movie of 2014. Worldwide, I'm still convinced it's going to get trounced by Hobbit 3 and maybe Hunger Games. But $850 million looks like the minimum. Maybe it will reach $900 million. But in the U.S. it will be the least successful of the franchise.

 

At least 'Murica can take comfort that there is a more retarded movie audience than theirs.

 

Transformers 4 has now made $262 million in China alone. The People's Republic could single-handedly drive the global box office total of Extinction to $1 billion.

"How will it play in China?" is going to be the new mantra for every movie costing $200 million or more.

 

Wow, that's really surprising. I've always thought of POTA as a global phenomenon.

It certainly didn't hurt that TF4 pandered to China at every opportunity. I'm surprised they didn't re-name Prime Optimus Chang.

 

It's a more staggered release worldwide than most big films these days, because of the world cup.It's only open in 26 territories so far.

 

I see quite a few similarities between the first "Thor" film and the 1994 version of "Frankenstein" that Branagh directed, where he also played Victor. Part of it may be the subject material, but the general style is a fairly-close match for both.

I was scared when I first heard Whedon was doing "The Avengers", but he actually made it work, which surprised me. Joss seems to have a habit of going ultra-dark with his own projects, which is why I'm glad that Feige kept him a little more under control. I'm also glad he's not the main showrunner for "Agents of SHIELD", because that show would be drastically different in tone if Joss called all the shots. Some people are very creative, but they produce more responsible work under supervision. I'm not in favor of arbitrary censorship, but I'm glad the MCU's remained in strict PG-13 territory so far.

 

Transformers looks like it has a lock on $1 billion worldwide, so it may yet capture the box office crown for 2014 and edge out Hobbit 3, which seems guaranteed to make at least $900 million. Dark horse contender might be Penguins of Madagascar.

 

sorry double post. Dark horse contender might be Penguins of Madagascar for top grosser of 2014. Madagascar 3 made as much money as X Men Days of Future Past, so sky might be the limit with that.

 

Not good news at all.

 

Guardians doesn't have a place in any conversation. It's an awful movie that is going to fail. The only question is whether it takes down this whole behemoth of overdone, stupid, pandering superhero films with it or not.

 

I'll take that bet, Jabby.

 

Disney is marketing Guardians of the Galaxy like they really believe it could be a mega-hit. It's been a while since an old school space opera has blown the lid off the box office.

 

I fear it's one I may lose. But if the world lived up to my expectations, it should be a sure thing.

I do have serious doubts it can be a mega-success, though.

 

I hate comic book super hero movies as much as the next comic book super hero movie hater, but I'm having a hard time hating the Guardians trailers.True, they make the movie look really, really conventional, but they also push all my Star Wars buttons.

 

Cause Dwayne Johnson is in it and he alone draws the big money

 

DOTPOTA is looking to be a decent domestic hit.

 

Hope so.

 

Since it was mentioned, does anyone wonder if dividing a last chapter into two parts like The Hunger Games might take a little away from the box office of the first part?
The way I see it, the summer season is done. The same happened last year. The rest of the big action movies will do okay, whatever that means now, but not make any real impact. From now through August, the focus will be on the little sleeper dramas.
Regarding Hercules, it suffers from being a late opener but The Rock seems to have his audience of people who "get" him and are glad to see him back in more mature fare after a string of movies directed at a younger audience. That more adult/teen fandom may just be limited to the Fast and the Furious franchise though, and overall, people may be worn out by Hercules renditions. This looks like it will be a more serious non-franchise film role like The Scorpion King, and that didn't fare as those raving about his part in The Mummy 2 made the producers believe it would. Personally, I got my interest piqued over a decade ago when his name was attached to a possible King Kamehameha epic.