Amph Summer Season Box Office

Discussion in 'Community' started by Jabbadabbado, Apr 4, 2013.

  1. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    The summer movie lineup is almost on us, with Tom Cruise's Oblivion launching the season in a few weeks. These are my rough predictions for worldwide box office, in millions. Monsters University and Iron Man 3 are in my view the only summer releases with any predictable potential of closing in on $1 billion. I give World War Z the highest odds of being the biggest commercial flop of the summer.


    21-Jun: Monsters University $850
    3-May: Iron Man 3 $800
    3-Jul: Despicable Me 2 $700
    19-Apr: Oblivion $650
    7-Jun : After Earth $600
    17-May : Star Trek into Darkness $550
    19-Jun : Man of Steel $390
    26-Jul : The Wolverine $385
    12-Jul Pacific Rim $350
    9-Aug: Elysium $350
    21-Jun : World War Z $300
    Last edited by Jabbadabbado, Apr 4, 2013
  2. Eeth-my-Koth Chosen One

    Member Since:
    May 25, 2001
    star 9
    21-Jun: Monsters University - this will meet expectations and perform well. not toy story 3 money, but better than cars2
    3-May: Iron Man 3 - the avengers hooked everyone. It's going to be a beast.
    3-Jul: Despicable Me 2 - mild success because its a kids movie, monsters u will beat it
    19-Apr: Oblivion - Tom cruise and Morgan freeman together spells success. Eh movie with big money made.
    7-Jun : After Earth - will smith is a huge draw. I think this is going to be big
    17-May : Star Trek into Darkness - big money, but I think it will not be as big as they hope
    19-Jun : Man of Steel this is the toughest call. Snyder can't be trusted. But being backed by Nolan could be huge. I think it will be huge.
    26-Jul : The Wolverine average money, ppl were burned by origins
    12-Jul Pacific Rim - I desperately want this to be huge, but I fear it will be a let down
    9-Aug: Elysium - flop
    21-Jun : World War Z - won't be a flop thanks to zombies and brad Pitt, but won't be a monster
  3. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Iron Man 3 is unlikely to be much better than Iron Man 2 in terms of quality, but it will definitely get some kind of Avengers box office bump.
    CloneUncleOwen likes this.
  4. PRENNTACULAR VIP

    Member Since:
    Dec 21, 2005
    star 6
    I think After Earth is a sleeper to make some huge money. WIll Smith is a big draw.
  5. tom Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Mar 14, 2004
    star 6
    21-Jun: Monsters University - this movie is going to perform so well martha stewart will literally die when she sees the numbers.
    3-May: Iron Man 3 - an actual gate to hell will open due to the box office success of this film.
    3-Jul: Despicable Me 2 - jesus will return just to see this movie. it's going to do great.
    19-Apr: Oblivion - i've heard word that this film is going to be mandatory viewing in china, thus automatically making it the most successful film of all time.
    7-Jun : After Earth - the draw of will smith is going to affect the earth's gravity, leading to several weeks of horrible natural disasters.
    17-May : Star Trek into Darkness - the enormous success of this film will lead to a revitalization of america's space program and humanity's eventual conquest of the universe.
    19-Jun : Man of Steel - millions will go deaf due to the thunderous stampede of people rushing to see this film.
    26-Jul : The Wolverine - people of earth will finally break free of their years long battle with depression as they are reunited with hugh jackman's sideburns. innovation will skyrocket.
    12-Jul: Pacific Rim - finally the giant mech things nobody knew they were waiting for. guilllermo del toro is cemented as the greatest man to ever live.
    9-Aug: Elysium - i have no idea what this is.
    21-Jun : World War Z - people ****ing love zombies. this movie is going to make their hearts explode.
    Last edited by tom, Apr 4, 2013
  6. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Elysium.starring Matt Damon, is Neill Blomkamp's follow-up to District 9.
  7. I Are The Internets Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Nov 20, 2012
    star 7
    MIB 3 underperformed, and it's directed by M. Night who hasn't made a watchable movie since Signs. I watch The Village for a good laugh or two, but that one doesn't count.
  8. tom Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Mar 14, 2004
    star 6
    the happening is way, way funnier than the village.
  9. I Are The Internets Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Nov 20, 2012
    star 7
    I haven't seen that one yet, but I have watched the part where Marky Mark talks to a plant. Such great acting by a master thespian.
  10. The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth

    Manager
    Member Since:
    Jan 27, 2000
    star 10
    After Earth is so hard to call- Will Smith is an automatic big opening weekend. But M. Night hasn't made a good film since Signs, and hasn't made a non-horrible film since Lady in the Water.

    If it sucks, it'll definitely dull the Smith draw long-term. If it's just so-so, it'll probably ride a respectable amount on Smith's name like MIB3 or Hancock.

    Elysium will depend on how the film looks- if it looks good in trailers, then the "From the Director of District 9" will sell some tickets. If it's trailer doesn't sell people, the D9 link will not help much.
  11. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Brad Pitt and Will Smith have both staked a lot in their movies. Shyamalan could not possibly have screwed up Last Airbender more.
  12. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    The new Man of Steel trailer is really good. Russell Crowe as Jor El - did not see that one coming.
    anakinfansince1983 likes this.
  13. Arawn_Fenn Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Jul 2, 2004
    star 7
    Ouch. Remember, a Superman film has to make 500 million or it's a failure!
  14. anakinfansince1983 Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Mar 4, 2011
    star 7
    I saw the first trailer for Oblivion a few days ago and it looked really good. And I'm definitely looking forward to Man of Steel.
  15. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Oblivion has a 58% on RT. If you apply the standard sci fi handicap to it, that's about the equivalent of a 75% RT score. So, I'm definitely going tonight.
  16. dp4m Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Nov 8, 2001
    star 9
    Really? I'm expecting much better than IM2 since IM2 sucked that much.
    R2-DK likes this.
  17. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Just one of those things about movie franchises. The first one is good because everything clicked. But don't ever expect a sequel to be any good. Every once in a while, audiences get ESB lucky. But mostly, they get Highlander 2 lucky.
  18. I Are The Internets Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Nov 20, 2012
    star 7
    I can't decide if R.I.P.D. looks awful or not.
  19. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    There's always Zombieland: the series available only on Amazon. That should be good.
  20. I Are The Internets Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Nov 20, 2012
    star 7
    And Arrested Development season 4 on Netflix.
  21. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    After Earth has been moved up to May 31. So it opens a week after Trek and two weeks before Man of Steel. I don't know if that means they decided Man of Steel was the bigger threat or if it doesn't mean anything.
  22. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    With an opening weekend of $38 million and ten days overseas for a $150 million worldwide total, it looks to me like $650 million is out of the question. It could make $325-$360 million, maybe even $400 million since it hasn't opened in Japan or China yet. But I'll be surprised if it makes more than $120 million in the U.S. Cruise delivers a compelling performance though. For anyone who doesn't want to think too much about the plot or how ineptly derivative it is of other, better movies, it still can deliver a solid 2 hours of entertainment.
    Last edited by Jabbadabbado, Apr 22, 2013
  23. I Are The Internets Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Nov 20, 2012
    star 7
    Still not sure about AE. I want it to be good, but I also wanted The Last Airbender to be good and haha that was terrible.
    CloneUncleOwen likes this.
  24. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    The movie doesn't seem like a good fit for Shyamalan any more than Last Airbender seemed like a good fit. But I'm willing to bet Will Smith asserted a lot of control over the process to make sure AE didn't have much of Shyamalan's trademark slow burn style. Still begs the question why anyone would ever trust Shyamalan to make an action movie.
    CloneUncleOwen likes this.
  25. I Are The Internets Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Nov 20, 2012
    star 7
    I get the feeling that Will Smith is barely in the movie, and that it's all on Jayden's shoulders to carry it which is fairly risky.