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Amph The 2015 Box Office Bloodbath (And the winner is...)

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Sep 20, 2013.

  1. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Though I did want to make a thread on this subject eventually, I had hoped to wait until sometime in 2014 when some things would be more concrete, but now with the Despicable Me Minions spin-off moving from Dec 2014 into July 2015, it just keeps getting more and more ridiculous that I think there's enough to talk about on the subject- even if only about the notion of a theoretical limit to how many event films can survive within any given period of time.

    For those who might be wondering, what is the 2015 Box Office Bloodbath? Though there are significant releases throughout the year, the period of highest curiosity is the summer of that year.

    Currently, that looks like this:

    (EDIT- revised 1/25/15)
    April 3rd: Fast Seven
    April 17th: Selfless
    May 1st: The Avengers: Age of Ultron
    May 15th: Mad Max: Fury Road
    May 22nd: Susan Cooper (Melissa McCarthy)
    May 29th: Insidious Chapter 3
    June 12th: Jurassic World
    June 19th: Pixar's Inside Out, Paper Towns
    June 26th: Ted 2
    July 1st: Terminator: Genisys
    July 10th: Minions (Despicable Me spin-off)
    July 17th: Pan, Ant-Man
    July 24th: Pixels, Poltergeist, The Smurfs 3
    July 31st: Mission Impossible 5, Point Break
    August 7th: The Fantastic Four
    August 14th: The Man From U.N.C.L.E.

    And that's only what has been announced so far.

    Here's a WIP for the rest of the year:

    February 13th: The Secret Service
    ...
    November 25: Pixar's The Good Dinosaur
    December 18th: Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens
    December 25th:

    The rest of the year (maybe even the summer) has titles said to be including, so far, (and obviously subject to change pending production and official announcements/greenlights): Assassin's Creed, Bond 24, Tin Tin, Hunger Games, Kung-Fu Panda, Alvin & the Chipmunks, Madagascar, Branagh's Cinderella, Prometheus 2, Crouching Tiger, Ratchet and Clank, Magnificent Seven, Alice in Wonderland 2 (maybe) and several other animated pieces from Dreamworks, Fox, a Burton movie, a Tarantino movie, an Arnold movie, a Denzel movie, a Fincher movie, a Blomkamp movie, etc.

    About the only thing that isn't coming out that summer is Pirates 5, which has been pushed back to summer 2016 (presumably at least in part because Disney didn't want to cannibalize their own films).

    Considering how many of these franchises found success in the long-haul with big box office numbers for almost a month after their release, these 2 or 3 week gaps don't seem like they'll be enough to sustain a lot of these.

    I mean, only about 2-3 weeks between Avengers and Star Wars? About 2 weeks between Star Wars and Jurassic Park? [EDIT- obviously Star Wars is now no longer in close proximity to Avengers o Jurassic World] 2 days between T5 & ID4 2? [EDIT- no longer the case as ID4 2 has retreated]

    Not to mention, even I might have trouble keeping up with seeing all of these ;).
     
  2. Volderon

    Volderon Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 23, 2007
    That's insane. Is that Assassins Creed movie even gonna get made? I have my doubts, its been pushed back for a few years now. There's a decent size gap between Avengers and Superman/Batman so thats good. But what do you think of Star Wars coming out beside Avengers?
     
  3. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    It's so tough to predict- there's total crossover there (fanboys, families, kids, fantasy heroics, studios), but they can't delay SW out of May because that would put it against Pixar in June (not going to happen) or into the Killing Fields of July (also not going to happen) or into the lower box office of August (definitely not going to happen). And I don't see them pushing SW into the holiday season. Basically their best bet is what they (probably) have setup: Avengers to open May, SW to close May/hit-up Memorial Day weekend.

    Assassins Creed seems to be making progress- they have Fassbender attached, a script being rewritten and a producer in negotiations, a release date set and comments that production is to begin this year, so it's looking pretty good. The no-doubt ridiculous sales AC4 will make in a couple months certainly won't hurt expediting matters.
     
  4. The Loyal Imperial

    The Loyal Imperial Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 19, 2007
    They just hired someone to rewrite it (The Wolverine's Scott Frank) who has never done a video game script before. I'm not expecting much from it.
     
  5. Juliet316

    Juliet316 JCC Game Winner star 10 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    Apr 27, 2005
    Didn't Emmerich say ID4 might not come out until 2016 recently? Or is the July 3rd release date set in stone?

    And their doing a Ted 2? Really? Really?!
     
  6. Volderon

    Volderon Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 23, 2007
    He must be Altair then. Too bad because while I liked AC, Ezio had a better story fleshed out for him. The heavy hitters would be Star Wars, Avengers, and S/B. I figure all the others are gonna depend on trailers and marketing. The last Terminator wasnt too good and the last Jurrasic Park was the same.

    Ant-Man, smurfs...well, who knows. Marvel didnt even get huge numbers off of Captain America and Thor who are kind of well known, what does that mean for Ant-Man I wonder.
     
  7. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Ted made a lot if money, of course there'll be a sequel.

    Emmerich did say ID4 2 might be 15 or 16- but the studios still have that July release date claimed to reflect their intentions. Depends how fast the movie gets made.

    After White House Down and After Earth, I'm willing to believe it'll be the earlier release date- unless Fox intentionally tried to avoid the subject if this thread and play it safe by waiting for a 16 release (maybe they'll use the extra time to film both parts so we don't get stuck with an unresolved cliffhanger).
     
  8. Juliet316

    Juliet316 JCC Game Winner star 10 VIP - Game Winner

    Registered:
    Apr 27, 2005
    Smurfs is basically going to be for that kiddie audience that probably likely won't be able to see most of the other movies that are coming out that summer.

    Edit: The2ndQuest given that a lot of studios these days film their movies and the sequels back to back, that might be the better option for FOX.
     
  9. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    JK Rowling's new movie, in the Harry Potter universe, is supposed to come out in 2015 too I think.
     
  10. anakinfansince1983

    anakinfansince1983 Nightsister of Four Realms star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Mar 4, 2011
    I'd say The Avengers and Star Wars will definitely be the big hitters and yes, people probably will go see them 2-3 weeks apart. At least one of the local chains here does summer movies on Monday-Thursday for five dollars. I saw Man of Steel and Despicable Me 2 that way this past summer.

    Some of those movies appeal to vastly different audiences. I'm really not expecting The Avengers to compete with Smurfs 3.

    Also, several of these films are sequels to movies that weren't that great in the first place.

    The line-up is a bit more over the top than we've had but maybe not quite as insane as it looks from the outset?
     
  11. Volderon

    Volderon Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 23, 2007
    Dont discount Superman/Batman. First time live action for them on screen at the same time. Batman has huge selling power as we've seen.
     
  12. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

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    Aug 16, 2002
    Do any of these movies have a chance of being good?
     
  13. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

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    Jan 27, 2000
    With Smurfs it's less a direct overlap with the live action heavy hitters and more the sub-conflict of animated & family fare happening between Pixar, Dreamworks, Minions, etc.
     
  14. Juliet316

    Juliet316 JCC Game Winner star 10 VIP - Game Winner

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    Apr 27, 2005
    Depends on if there is still a backlash against Affleck as Batman when 2015 rolls around.
     
  15. Adam of Nuchtern

    Adam of Nuchtern Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Sep 2, 2012
    Ant-Man, since it's being helmed by Edgar Wright.
     
  16. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

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    Jan 27, 2000
    Yes- even if by sheer law of averages ;).
     
  17. anakinfansince1983

    anakinfansince1983 Nightsister of Four Realms star 10 Staff Member Manager

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    Mar 4, 2011
    While I will personally pass on Batfleck until it comes out on Blu-Ray, I have no doubt that it will make money.
     
  18. Volderon

    Volderon Jedi Master star 4

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    Jul 23, 2007
    There was backlash against Michael Keaton. People like to complain but in the end they'll still go, never underestimate the comic book fan. They complain complain and still week after week buy the same comic.
     
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  19. Darth Guy

    Darth Guy Chosen One star 10

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    Aug 16, 2002
    I dunno, I like some of Joss Wheadon's stuff but The Avengers was just another Marvel movie (somehow with even less plot or character development) with some Wheadonesque jokes sprinkled in.
     
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  20. MrZAP

    MrZAP Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jun 2, 2007
    Sure, but most people going to see these movies aren't actually comic book fans. If the studios were relying on the comic book fans (quite a small market, especially today) to make up the bulk of their ticket sales we'd be getting a low-budget campfest (or something by Kevin Smith...), not the huge blockbusters we've come to expect. Most people seeing the Batman films think that Bale is Batman because that's what they've been exposed to most, so it might not be as you expect.

    Don't get me wrong; I do think it'll be a hit. Just not for the reasons you seem to think.
     
  21. Only-One Cannoli

    Only-One Cannoli Ex-Mod star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 20, 2003
    Inside Out and Ant Man will be good. The rest are iffy.
     
  22. Jarren_Lee-Saber

    Jarren_Lee-Saber Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Apr 16, 2008
    I will be spending ALL my beer money on cinema tickets in 2015
     
  23. Jarren_Lee-Saber

    Jarren_Lee-Saber Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Apr 16, 2008
    There was a rumor on Empire that Star Wars will be pushed to December to take the spot that has been previously filled by LOTR/The Hobbit.
     
  24. Saintheart

    Saintheart Jedi Grand Master star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 16, 2000
    Surely some of those films will get pushed back by the studios to later dates. That's a truly impossible schedule for the US summer. Is the apocalypse slated for August 1, 2015 or something? All the studios have to get their cash by then?
     
  25. Nobody145

    Nobody145 Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 9, 2007
    Now that I think about it, a lot of movies have been pushed from 2014 to 2015. I think I saw an article recently that said there won't be a Pixar movie in 2014, something called the Good Dinosaur being pushed back to 2015, with Finding Dory being pushed to 2016. So that's one less sequel, but that's still a ton of big movies slated for 2015, being sequels and Star Wars and such.

    Huh, 10 years ago I would have never expected for a Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar film to all be owned by one company. Though I'm mostly out of touch with movies, so no idea if there were any warning signs, but I'm pretty sure the Disney acquisition of Star Wars at least was a huge surprise (not to mention the new sequel trilogy). Now they've got to be careful not to steal tickets from themselves. Good thing I'm not much of a Marvel fan so I won't care about missing Marvel films (nothing against their quality, just been busy and not quite my interest).

    I'm more worried about the upcoming Superman vs. Batman being a sequel to Man of Steel than Affleck. Never got quite the negative reaction to the announcement, at least at this early date. If the trailers look bad, then time to panic.

    Pixar is usually decent at least, I'm not expecting much from Episode VII, Avengers will probably do well, Batman will probably be high profile at least. Some of the cartoons overlap, but aside from Pixar and Panda, none of them are quite high profile. Yet more Smurf and Chipmunks is almost expected at this point (sadly), so that's nothing new. Still, wonder if even more movies will move to 2016 eventually. Then it'll be a 2016 bloodbath. :p