Amph The 2016 Box Office Bloodshower

The Disney/Marvel brand is now powerful enough to launch D list superhero franchises like Ant-Man and Dr. Strange. I've finally learned my lesson about predicting the flopping of these third-tier characters.

 

Don't forget to mention Guardians of the Galaxy, which were probably E or F list superheroes.

I do think super hero fatigue is setting in with the general audience. I watched Civil War again for a Saturday matinee and there was probably only 20 other people in the theater with me. I was surprised by the low turn out.

I'm thinking X-Men: Apocalypse will probably one below $100 million. I'm thinking $85-$90 million for opening weekend.

 

Civil War didn't open as big as an Avengers movie. It got real close and may have more legs but didn't quite pop as much. I do think that's a factor in measuring if there's any "audience fatigue". I mean, it's going to make buckets of cash and more than BVS already / probably be the third highest grossing MCU film. But you'd figure eventually these movies have to start topping what Avengers did years ago. I think the superhero genre is going to do just fine but audiences may start to get more selective about which ones make bank. Interesting twists on the formula like Deadpool or the good old standby sturdy brand of the MCU.

I don't think the genre will ever, ever go away, it may wax and wane in number of installments. It keeps getting compared to Westerns in popularity and the bubble eventually bursting but, y'know what? They STILL make Westerns! Every year! Sometimes more than one!

 

90% RT score for The Nice Guys. Not sure that will give it a leg up over Neighbors 2, and it's definitely going to lose out to Angry Birds.

 

Also, Captain America: Civil War cracked Batman v. Superman's domestic top-out (approx. $327MM USD) -- over 45 days -- in one-third that time (15 days). It should pass Deadpool at some point this week. Though X-Men: Apocalypse should be taking some of the money out of everyone else's pockets.

 

should hit $1.2 billion worldwide, or come very close.

 

Will $1.2 billion worldwide be considered a success or a film with below box office expectations?

I saw the X-Men Apocalypse has made about $100 in foreign ticket sales.

 

That's nearly five times it't budget, I don't think it's close to being below expectations.

 

CA3 is a huge success by any standard, including Marvel's.

 

I really wish nice guys had made at least 20 million opening weekend, it's a pretty awesome flick and buddy action comedies are getting progressively more homogenized so it's nice to see one with some bite.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/b...ht-into-the-hostility-of-gender-politics.html

terrible article fails to identify any kind of real gender-based controversy over this movie. Is there one? Are the gamergate types taking a stand? Hard to imagine this movie being worth the effort.

 

What's going to be the biggest flop of the summer? My money is on either Tarzan or Ben Hur.

 

Why would you remake Ben-Hur? After the colour version, I mean. Because it's not like we're making epics better than we were back then, on the contrary.

 

Those will both flop, but Ghostbusters will take the crown.

 

Live action Tarzan has mostly been a disaster over the last 30 years. The only studio I'd trust to make money on it would be Disney doing a direct live action remake of its own feature length cartoon version. I have a soft spot for the Disney Tarzan. It was the first movie I took the now 20 year old to see.

 

I'm sorry! I was really really drunk.

 

Looks like Batman vs. Superman is not yet going to lose its crown as the worst-reviewed superhero movie of 2016. Exema Acropolis looks like a turd, but a slightly better turd.

 

Alice through the Looking Glass is getting terrible reviews. It may well be Disney's Lone Ranger of 2016. Disney has had a good run for the last 6 months though, and Finding Dory is extremely unlikely to fail.

Xpocalypse may make $525 million worldwide
Alice may make about $450 million worldwide.

 

I thought the first one was terrible too, but I'm a bitter old man unable to extract joy from any experience.

 

That's why we love you.