main
side
curve
  1. Welcome to the new boards! Details here!

Amph The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 31, 2017.

  1. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    [​IMG]

    As one year comes to a close, another is upon us. Thus, another thread is born: The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean (2018BOBO!).

    Deadpool 2, Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, Infinity War, Solo, Ready Player One, New Mutants, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World 2, Ant-Man, Alita, MI6, Predator, Venom, Halloween, Dark Phoenix, Fantastic Beasts 2, Creed 2, Spiderverse, Aquaman, Mortal Engines, Wreck-It-Ralph 2, Bumblebee and Mary Poppins ya'all! Amongst many, many other smaller films and horror sequels.

    [​IMG]


    Sidenote: Alpha doesn't come out until September. What the hell? They've been playing that trailer like crazy. I'm not particularly psyched about it (if I want to watch a primitive man tame a wild dog, I'll just rewatch Riddick) but I'm surprised they're pushing it this far out.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2017
    Ramza, BigAl6ft6 and Rylo Ken like this.
  2. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    Just as a gut right now cursory glance, I can't imagine The Avengers: Infinity War not taking the top spot.

    My initial guess is:

    1) The Avengers: Infinity War
    2) The Incredibles 2
    3) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

    I just can't imagine JW:FK doing as well as the first reboot-film and dropping due to opening weekend word of mouth
     
  3. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    I don't see Incredibles doing anywhere near that high in terms of business.

    Avengers will take the top spot, but I expect Solo and JW2 to take the 2nd and 3rd spots, but in which order depends on how much drop-off JW has over its predecessor and how well a SW anthology film can do in the summer reative to RO.
     
  4. heels1785

    heels1785 JCC/PT/New Films Manager star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Dec 10, 2003
    life is great, dying on the hill of the dceu. go aquaman? [face_worried]

    black panther is the one I really want to see. lots of good ones, i'm really excited to see ron howard in star wars - but black panther is the one for me, the wonder woman of 2018. chadwick boseman is a fellow South Carolinian, in addition to a tremendous actor (if you haven't seen marshall, do).

    i've really liked the last two x-men films, as well, so i'm eager to see fox's send off with both dp2 and dark phoenix.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2017
  5. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    13 years ago, The Incredibles (a first time movie) was the #5 domestic grosser in the field and #4 international grosser -- losing to Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (whom it beat domestically). In the 29 year period from 1982 - 2011 (The Incredibles was 2004), only 52 movies earned an A+ CinemaScore -- this was one.

    I'm willing to stand by my current gut feelings (as it's a gut feeling)... :p

    If PostTrak data was available to view, I'd be more confident, but meh...

    EDIT: @heels1785 -- special BP preview with the BCS College Football Championship on ESPN!
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2017
    heels1785 likes this.
  6. Lord Vivec

    Lord Vivec Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Apr 17, 2006
    I look forward to the 2019 Blood Sky, 2020 Blood Planet, 2021 Bloodmoon, 2022 Blood Star, 2023 Blood Solar System, 2024 Blood Galaxy, 2025 Blood Universe, and so on
     
    The2ndQuest likes this.
  7. EHT

    EHT Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Yes, agreed with all of this.
     
  8. PCCViking

    PCCViking Force Ghost star 10

    Registered:
    Jun 12, 2014
    I don't see Solo being in the top 5. I'm not saying it will be a flop, but I think it will make quite a bit less than Rogue One (which "only" made $160 million its opening weekend). The upheaval with the changing of directors, the massive reshoots and so far no trailer at all with 5 months to go, doesn't seem to bode well.
     
  9. EHT

    EHT Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Rogue One didn't have to change directors like Solo has, but it had a lot going on behind the scenes including pretty extensive reshoots and directorial "help" being brought on. Most of the general viewing audience probably never knew about all that, and probably doesn't know much about the Solo issues either... so it just comes down to LFL taking those steps to make the best possible final product, and that's all most viewers know or care about. The trailer point is valid, but they likely didn't want one coming out until after TLJ was released, so there will probably be one pretty soon. Having said all that, I don't think it will do as well as Rogue One did, but I still think it could be in the top 3 for the year.
     
    Outsourced and Artoo-Dion like this.
  10. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Disney seems to be gunning for a genuine flop with Solo but may fall slightly short of total disaster. Wrinkle in Time is the closest thing they have to a sure thing. It has the worst movie trailers I've seen in a year, and I saw all the Justice League trailers.

    Fifty Shades Freed unfortunately will likely be the first hit of 2018. FSDarker made 7x its budget worldwide. Even if #3 does half the box office, it will still turn a profit.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
    DarthIntegral likes this.
  11. PCCViking

    PCCViking Force Ghost star 10

    Registered:
    Jun 12, 2014
    The Nutcracker movie may not do that well either, but I do think Mary Poppins Returns will.
     
  12. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    You don't think Tchaikovsky has enough pull in the 21st century to fill cinema seats?

    If I were doing some kind of odd narcissistic celebrity selfie deathpool, I'd now note that if I were Pyotr Tchaikovsky, I would be dying this year.

    I'd single out Annihilation as an early underperformer. It's too strange and grim for any kind of actual audience appeal.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
  13. Todd the Jedi

    Todd the Jedi Mod and Soliloquist of SWTV star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Oct 16, 2008
    Ready Player One will be an interesting one. Spielberg hasn't exactly been a BO draw for some time, but the subject matter might give him a boost, plus fans of the book tuning in.
     
  14. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    I'd love to see Spielberg have another megablockbuster more than 40 years after his first one, but RP1 does not look like it's going to be that.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2018
  15. Diggy

    Diggy Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Avengers to top the year.
    Dead Pool to top the R Rated list.
    Wrinkle to flop.
    JW to flop relatively speaking.

    Middle of the road, fairly safe predictions.
     
  16. PCCViking

    PCCViking Force Ghost star 10

    Registered:
    Jun 12, 2014
    Disney is due for another March flop after a few years of decent to mega opening weekend streaks that Month (Oz, Muppets Most Wanted, Cinderella, Zootopia, and Beauty and the Beast). The question is will it be a John Carter or Mars Needs Moms type of flop? (the latter barely had any attendance at the theater I worked in).
     
  17. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    A Wrinkle in Time is a fantastic children's book. Almost universally beloved by everyone who reads it in the Beverly Cleary, Encyclopedia Brown, Bridge to Terebithia age group... but I seem to recall it being super-duper hard to visualize (not in your head, but to make it on TV/film).
     
  18. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    it's pretty clear from the trailer that Disney has its customary Utter Contempt for the source material.
     
  19. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    I admit it's been some time since I've read the books (The Chronicles of Prydain remains my favorite children's' books), so I can't say -- but the one thing that gives me pause is I thought the entire point of the first book is that...
    She ultimately realizes she needs to become something other than "a warrior," so either that's a misdirect in the trailer or you are correct...
     
  20. Jabba-wocky

    Jabba-wocky Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    May 4, 2003
    So long there is enough snappy dialogue and winks at the fourth wall, too many won't care and half this forum will hail it as a masterpiece.
     
  21. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    Wocky, you unironically like I, Robot so your footing here is tenuous... (also, it's not that kind of book)
     
    soitscometothis likes this.
  22. Jabba-wocky

    Jabba-wocky Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    May 4, 2003
    Has Disney ever cared what it's source material is actually "like" before throwing it into the assembly line meat processing plant that is their film production division?
     
  23. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    I just find it hard to bet against a modern SW film hitting 1 billion. Even with Avengers eating away at the audience ahead of time and the shorter gap between movies. It doing at least RO business seems a safe bet.
     
  24. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    If all the fans boycott Solo that will send a powerful message to Disney that the fans have almost no market power and they can safely be ignored in the promotional budget for Star Wars moving forward.
     
  25. soitscometothis

    soitscometothis Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2003
    I look forward to Solo flopping like a goldfish on the floor.