Amph The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean

BP almost certainly brought a host of new fans into the MCU, to be honest, which helped raise the tide for IW even further. As insane as that sounds - a ten year old movie universe that prints money and could put out a movie called "Marvel - just a blank screen with a funny after credits screen" and make $400 million domestically bringing in new fans - I think it absolutely happened.

 

IW domestic opening weekend actuals is $258 million, 10 million higher than TFA.

We have a new champion.

 

Not surprised.

 

Deadpool 2 vs Solo. What makes more opening weekend?

 

Deadpool 2.

 

Deadpool 2

 

Deadpool 2, but it could be close. Rogue One's $155 million weekend is plausible for Solo. Deadpool 2 will definitely do better than Deadpool's $132 million, but how much more for an R rated movie?

 

nah, it'll be solo.

 

Solo.

I mean, Deadpool 2.

 

Deadpool 2 will have the record for R movie online presales, according to Fandango. Beating the opening weekend of Deadpool is a certainty. We also know that there's no such thing as superhero movie fatigue, except in my head.

 

the ironic thing is i think we (presumably pretty big star wars fans at least at some point) have become way more cynical about star wars than casual moviegoers. i might be underestimating deadpool's appeal, but i think solo will do fine.

 

I agree with that. I think the marketing for Solo has been pretty good, up to the usual Disney standards for selling Star Wars.

 

I don’t think Solo will be as critic proof as Deadpool 2.

Are Solo tickets even on sale yet?

 

Is it even possible to have TWO consecutive $150 million OW's only 3 weeks after a $250 million OW? (then only 4 weeks later ANOTHER $150 million + OW in JW2?)

It would mean that in the course of 5 weekends, FOUR will be over $100 million (probably over $120 million) and the average domestic intake for the #1 movie in each week from April 27-may 25 will be around $150 million. Inconceivable but likely if tracking numbers for DP2 and Solo hold up.
April 27: $258 mill (IW)
May 4: $120 million (IW)
May 11: $65 million (IW)
May 18: $150 million (DP2)
May 25: $150 million (Solo)

Not sure if that is sustainable. Something's gotta give, right?

 

I actually enjoyed the marketing for Solo the most so far when it comes to the Disney Erafilms. What does that mean? Have no idea just like how they marketed it overall so far. I said in the Solo boards that I don’t know what it is but Solo and Denny’s seems like a match made in heaven. I can easily see Han along with Chewie going there after a long nite of shannigans to have a couple Grand Slam breakfasts and in they case of Han having several coffees to help get whatever he had the night before. Be like the seen from Spaceballs when Lone Star and Barf go to that diner. Just don’t have the special.

@jedijax

Before this year? No didn’t think so. Now? I do think it’s possible at this point which crazy as it might sound Deadpool might be the weak link in the group. Solo has been trending upwards and I saw few projections had it at indeed a $150 million 3-day weekend with about a $175 million over the 4-day holiday opening.

@Diggy

Megabyte(?) has said that they should go on sale May 4th but so far no announcement as been made. It make sense for a whole slew of reasons though I wonder maybe they will push it back by one weekend given how insane Infinity War has got out of the gate. And while I agree with your sentiment that Deadpool 2 is more critic proof then Solo but one of the good things about the craziness of the production for Solo is the lowering of expectations. Therefore if the consensus on RT is that it’s a silly fun popcorn film that as anywhere between a 70-75% score that will be seen as a win for Solo.

Again going back to the whole marketing plan by Lucasfilm one of the smart things they done is set the tone for the anthology films as being for “the fans”. I think the expectation as been the anthology films won’t be received that greatly by the critics because of it though Rogue One did very well with critics.

 

These are unprecedented times in terms of box office. I knew that this year would be interesting but always saw it as a semi-dry-run for 2019 which will be unlike anything ever. TBH I wasn't holding my breath for this year to be anything even remotely close to what it has already been. The fall and winter will be the quietest it's been in a LONG while. But it will be the calm before the storm.

 

Deadpool 2 is the one thats getting my May Movie Money

 

At the theater I work at, this weekend, IW shared an auditorium with Black Panther, so some guests could have brought tickets for a BP-IW double feature without having to change auditoriums or seats.

 

BP is going to end up over $700 million. Will IW get there too?

Disney will have THREE movies likely to hit $600 million domestic in 2019 and those same films will hit at least $1.3 billion WW (A4, LK, SW9)

 

Frozen 2?

 

Not sure if Frozen 2 has $600 million in it but I do think $500 million (an increase of over $100 million) domestically is feasible. Disney also has Captain Marvel and Spidey 2 coming out and each of those will make IMHO over $300 million as well with Captain Marvel teetering close to $400 million if it is done right. So Disney is looking at 3 movies possibly over $600 million in 2019 (Episode IX, Toy Story IV, The Lion King), one over $500 million (Frozen 2) and two in the $300 million plus range (Spidey 2, Captain Marvel). Disney with just those six movies could top $3 billion domestically in 2019 alone. That is absolutely redonkulous on every level possible!

Interesting side note for 2019. Sony has yet to move Masters of the Universe from their holiday 2019 spot even though they now have Jumanji 3 coming out Christmas Day. I guess it is just to make sure they keep production rolling along as they FINALLY now have a team in place that seems settled with David Goyer writing the script and the Nee Brothers directing. My guess is Sony will quietly move He-Man to March 2020 or something along those lines.

 

The Russos mentioned that they are considering a re-release of IW with A4, showing the two movies together with an intermission between them. I'm thinking they might be looking at that for how they edit A4, specifically how close that movie starts to the end of IW.

It's gonna be tough for it to. The MCU crossover movies do not have a track record of particularly good legs since TA. Certainly not the legs that BP has shown. And the schedule is not nearly as kind to IW as BP's was. I've felt all along that BP would make more domestically than IW would while IW would surpass it globally and I still think that is likely to be the case.

 

Not sure about Frozen 2 making $600 million domestic. That's a bit much for an animated. It does have a chance at $500 million though, but I think mid-$400's. (oh dang @Luke02 I didn't even read that you posted the same thing). With likely 6 $400 million (probably 7) Disney will be like Thanos with the infinity stones.
Galaxy far far away stone
Avengers stone
Toy stone
Ice stone
Lantern stone
Lion stone
New Marvel character stone

Okay, this is the 2018 thread. Gotta focus!!!

 

Just relax.