Amph The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean

There’s a blessed 19 months between Star Wars films coming up, plenty of time for a relaxing break from watching other people make money.

 

We are mere weeks away from the strangest and bloodiest box office blood ocean in recent memory.

Infinity War, chugging along, could be poised to make more than $30 million in weekend 4 when Deadpool 2 opens, currently tracking in the $150 millionish opening range, followed by Solo, tracking at similar numbers. When Solo opens, Infinity War, Deadpool 2 will also be doing extremely well, even if Deadpool 2 is utterly terrible and crashes by 60% or more in its second weekend.

Given that Disney announced the acquisition of Fox last December, filing its SEC papers just this April, May marks a confluence of bizzare box office. First, no back to back movies have ever both opened at $150 million. Second, this is essentially triple cannibalization, with Disney stealing box office more or less completely from itself and hurting all three films.

 

Weekend (domestic) box office guesses:

Top 5
Avengers Infinity War: $135 million
Tully: $16 million
A Quiet Place: $5 million
I Feel Pretty: $4 million
Overboard: $2 million

 

From Mojo:

Avengers: Infinity War (4,474 theaters) - $116.0 M

• Overboard (1,623 theaters) - $15.2 M

• A Quiet Place (3,413 theaters) - $6.8 M

• I Feel Pretty (3,232 theaters) - $4.3 M

• Tully (1,353 theaters) - $4.1 M

So, let's see who's on drugs, Mojo or Tony.

 

I want on the drug train. Infinity War outperforms expectations with at least $125 million.

 

$31-$34 million Friday for IW. Probably right around $120 million for the weekend. Seeing it today at 11 am.

 

It's almost official: Tini and I are both on drugs.

 

I paid for "Tully" but didn't see it. bought a ticket online for "Tully" but realized I wouldn't get there in time so I turned around and went home. Unless it is still in that theater (an hour away) when "Solo" opens, I won't be seeing it in the theater.

 

However many people ended up seeing Overboard are on drugs.

 

Well I did get all 5 movies right, except I over-estimated Tully and under-estimated Overboard. I thought Overboard would bomb, but I guess curiosity over nostalgia beat a Charlize Theron performance. But number wise, I was pretty close too.

 

Avengers: Infinity War Smashes China Presales Record

 

Infinity War is outpacing Black Panther domestically in Week 3. While it's about to pass BP internationally rather soon, I wonder if it will actually pass BP in North America. Still a bit of a climb, almost 200 million to go, but the next few weeks of IW should be interesting to see if it can still rake in cash hand over fist with Deadpool, Solo and JW out there.

 

No.

 

‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Posts 2nd-Biggest China Opening Ever
AUTHOR JESSE RIFKIN PUBLISHED MAY 13, 2018 COMMENTS 2
Infinity War had broken records in almost every other market, so why not add China to the list? Its estimated $200.0 million opening this weekend marked the 2nd-highest industry opening ever.

It beats other huge Chinese openings including $184.9 million for The Fate of the Furious and $155.7 million for Avengers: Age of Ultron.

In one weekend, Infinity War also beats the China lifetime grosses for the original Avengers and 2016’s Captain America: Civil War.

Helped by China, Infinity War now crosses $1 billion overseas, with a $1.05 billion overseas total to date. It’s currently the 5th-highest overseas earner of all time, behind Avatar, Titanic, Furious 7, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Infinity War will likely beat Furious 7 and Force Awakens later this week.

Globally, the film is also now the 5th-highest global earner of all time, at $1.60 billion. It ranks behind Avatar, Titanic, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and Jurassic World. It will likely pass Jurassic in the next day or two.

 

So IW just passed Black Panther internationally and is outpacing it domestically 552 to 506 mil, but IW is probably not going to hold as long as BP did. And it just passed both Avengers films internationally (but is still about 70 million behind Avengers in NA) So can IW make 150 million more in North America to pass BP? Ermmmmmm gak, I dunno.

 

Box Office: 'Deadpool 2' Breaks Records With $19M Thursday

‘Deadpool 2’ Heads for Heroic $130 Million Opening Weekend

 

So, Deadpool 2 ended up not meeting expectations with an opening weekend of $125 million, which is below the original Deadpool film that had an opening weekend of $132 million.

I didn't think it was a good idea to move Deadpool 2 up and be sandwiched in between Avengers: Infinity War and Solo. I definitely think Deadpool 2 would have done better in June both in the opening weekend numbers and long term.

 

There's no question Deadpool 2 and Infinity War hurt each other this weekend. Next weekend Solo, Deadpool 2 and Infinity War are all basically going after the same audience. That should mean a big drop for Deadpool 2, maybe 60%, another largish 55% drop for Infinity War (for the comparable Friday-Sunday), and a lower-than-expected opening for Solo. I don't know what that means exactly for Solo, but maybe less than $140 million including the holiday Monday.

May seems a bit more of a blood ocean than usual, but the back-to-back superhero movies (and Black Panther now available to rent) plus Incredibles 2 and the Ant-Man sequel just weeks away, does seem like superhero overload in the sense of very similar movies cannibalizing each others' box office.

 

It's likely even worse for Deadpool than for the other two, as Deadpool is going after only a segment of the same audience, due to the R Rating.

 

@Sith_Sensei__Prime

Deadpool 1 had the benefit of a holiday weekend but pushing it in between Infinity War and Solo seem to not make much sense. Still though it made $305 million worldwide opening weekend against a $110 million budget therefore it’s already in the black and making Fox happy.

 

Isn't it all fine and dandy for Disney regardless, though? Whichever of the three movies audiences choose, it all ends up in their coffers.

 

Disney will do great this weekend in terms of market share for all box office revenue available, but in terms of maximizing the revenue for each of their movies, it might have been better to spread them out so that they're not eating each other's box office.