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Amph The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean

Discussion in 'Community' started by The2ndQuest , Dec 31, 2017.

  1. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Sorry, I thought you were advocating August 2017 for some reason- which obviously isnt practical. My mistake.
     
  2. Sith_Sensei__Prime

    Sith_Sensei__Prime Chosen One star 6

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    May 22, 2000
    I think releasing Solo in May might be the best thing for the film, especially if it's bad because people and the media will just move on to the next blockbuster. If Solo is a bad film and it's released in December, the story would dominate the headlines. A May release will help minimize the bad press, as the comic conventions and Hollywood machine will begin to garner coverage of coming films and production news.
     
  3. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

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    Nov 8, 2001
    Ken is, of course, correct. Global $850MM (ROTS) is probably the over/under -- where +=Over is "that's fine, we need to be cautious with our story choices" and the Under is "maybe we want to cut back on quantity."
     
  4. Sith_Sensei__Prime

    Sith_Sensei__Prime Chosen One star 6

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    May 22, 2000
    Has it been confirmed that there won't be a lightsaber in Solo?
     
  5. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Force Ghost star 6

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    Nov 12, 2012
    I'm in the "Solo: A Star Wars Story" won't be awful camp if only because I think Lawrence Kassadan has a pretty good handle on the character and how to use him (and I'd rather see him flesh out Han's backstory as opposed to it pops up in a guidebook or something). Howard can make great movies if he has a great script. He's a solid director but his choice in script quality seems to be a bit of a dartboard.

    But moving to August I think would be a better idea, however, I think Bob Iger had a bugaboo about "I want a Star Wars Movie in May, dammit." Look at every initial release date of a Disney Star Wars movie that has been announced, I think it was always May 2015 from the get-go for Force Awakens, which got bumped to December when JJ came on board, which in turn had a knock on effect on everything else. But Solo was first slotted for that May 2018 date and, by God, they're going to hit it. However, sandwhiched in between Avengers and Deadpool is definitely not the best spot for it, even if Disney is basically competing with itself to dominate the entire month of May.... erm also June cuz they own Fox now too don't they? Eh, it's all money in the same suit. But still, Solo would probably make more $ if it was moved to August, I concur.

    As for Marvel's success story, I'm okay with that because Marvel Zombie 4 Life, yo.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2018
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  6. ewoksimon

    ewoksimon Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 26, 2009
    Yeah, at the end of the day, I'm sure the May release was Iger's call to make, and perhaps keeping the film there speaks to Disney and Lucasfilm's confidence in it. Still, I suppose the only way Solo stays alive through May and June is if it wildly exceeds expectations and several of the other franchise films flounder.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2018
  7. Juliet316

    Juliet316 Chosen One star 10

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    Apr 27, 2005
    And if it flounders, Iger can blame the glut of movies in May/June and not Solo itself.
     
  8. ewoksimon

    ewoksimon Jedi Grand Master star 4

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    Oct 26, 2009
    Deadpool 2 just got bumped up to 5/18, so that gives Solo a bit more breathing room going into June.
     
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  9. Sith_Sensei__Prime

    Sith_Sensei__Prime Chosen One star 6

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    May 22, 2000
    I would prefer Deadpool 2 to stay in June just to space out the comic book films.
     
  10. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    Hey, looks like a movie released in 2018 will actually top the box office for once this weekend, certainly took long enough, 2018, ya lazy...

    Did anyone look at the stats for Greatest Showman? It's opening weekend in December was 8 million. But it's been hangin' around and has racked up 100 million already (and 100 mill overseas). Guess the target demographic for it took awhile to show up but it's actually had increases almost every weekend, kinda crazy

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greatestshowman.htm
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2018
  11. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Force Ghost star 6

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    Nov 12, 2012
  12. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

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    Nov 8, 2001
  13. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

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    Dec 19, 2015
    Please tell me we didn’t bet on that movie.
     
  14. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

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    Nov 8, 2001
    I don't believe we did, but I thought about it...

    EDIT: The origin story...

     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
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  15. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

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    Dec 19, 2015
  16. Juliet316

    Juliet316 Chosen One star 10

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    Apr 27, 2005
    *gigglesnort*


    So Jumanji and Greatest Showman are the Lost World and Fury Road of 2018?
     
  17. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

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    Dec 19, 2015
    I still stand by whatever it was I said about Fury Road. Fun enough movie, but it underperformed at the box office. I don't think I ever declared it a blockbuster.
     
  18. Diggy

    Diggy Force Ghost star 7

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    Feb 27, 2013
    Hi Ken,

    I have some extra money, and wish to buy shares in a film studio. Could you tell me which 2018 film you think will be a flop?
     
  19. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Disney's A Wrinkle in Time is the Tomorrowland of 2018
    Warner's Tomb Raider is the Prince of Persia of 2018
    Fox's Alita: Battle Angel is the Ghost in the Shell of 2018
     
  20. Diggy

    Diggy Force Ghost star 7

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    Feb 27, 2013
    Warners it is!
     
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  21. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    bold predictions but I think Wrinkle is going to make decent-better-than-Tomorrowland bank. Tomb Raider, if it has a clear run, probably higher than PoP. Still haven't seen the Battle Angel trailer but, yah, that'll probably be a bomb. (brief considering since Cameron has been masterminding it there might be craziness that'll get people to watch, aside from the apparently freaky eyes)
     
  22. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Nov 8, 2001
    You are correct about Mad Max: Fury Road as, while profitable, it only made about 2.2x budget.

    However...

    For your nightmare fuel: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is about one weekend+ from making it into the top-5 for 2017, knocking off a Spider-Man movie that had an opening weekend gross of $117 million dollars whilst J:WTTJ opened at $36 million...

    <insert ZZ Top song here>
     
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  23. The2ndQuest

    The2ndQuest Tri-Mod With a Mouth star 10 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Jan 27, 2000
    Wrinkle will do better than Tomorrowland- less competitive release window and has the recognition advantage of being based on an apparently rather popular book, whereas the only real connection Tomorrowland's advertising had to the Magic Kingdom land was a visual easter egg in some (but not all) of the posters.

    I can't imagine Tomb Raider being worse than POP- at the very least, the trailers look very close in tone and style to the recent games compared to POP actively trying to ape POTC, not to mention a closer proximity in release to the game titles.

    Alita... I'll never underestimate Cameron, even if it's Rodriguez directing a Cameron project. But Alita has far, far less recognition than GITS does, so it is at a disadvantage going in. On the other hand, GITS faltered in terms of story adaptation choices, not execution. So, if Alita has a more solid script with similar levels of execution, it could overcome GITS in that regard. Not to mention that Alita is probably a much more flexible property to adapt, being free of the "inclusion of an origin story undercuts the ability to adapt the original story at a critical junction" paradox that ultimately crippled GITS.

    But, yeah, that one is going to be a harder sell- especially with the anime eyes weirdness.
     
  24. dp4m

    dp4m Chosen One star 10

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    Nov 8, 2001
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  25. Yoda's_Roomate

    Yoda's_Roomate Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 8, 2000
    Ant Man and The Wasp teaser trailer. I'm pretty sure this one will do better at the box office than the first one, just because of Evangeline Lilly.