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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

The Box Office Contest and Discussion

Discussion in 'Archive: Your Jedi Council Community' started by BlueMules, Feb 10, 2003.

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  1. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    here's my prediction on the man of steel ;) ruler of summer '06.

    Domestic - $400m
    International - $450
    Worldwide - $850

    For truth, justice and [face_flag] way.
     
  2. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    I just can't see Superman being that big. Superman in a poor spot this year only 7 days before Pirates. I'm still going to go with 200m max domestic.

    BTW Narnia is only .9 million from overtaking GOF.
     
  3. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
  4. Shackleton

    Shackleton Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 16, 2004
    I'm with Moleman in that I certainly don't see Superman Returns as a movie to churn out huge numbers like that. I'm going with $250 million max (domestic), especially considering Dead Man's Chest comes out 7 days later.
     
  5. LiamGonNeeson

    LiamGonNeeson Jedi Youngling star 2

    Registered:
    Apr 11, 2005
    Shackleton, Moleman: This Superman movie will dominate summer '06. POTC 2 will be AOTC to the last son of Krypton's Spidey. (huh?) Trust me, guys, this film will set the box office benchmark worldwide for comic book films. If Singer knocks it out of the park (fingers crossed), Titanic & ROTK will have a new member in the unadjusted billion worldwide club.


    Oh, and about the Episode III theatrical run. Where was the second-run theatre showing? Harry just grossed nearly 1 million this weekend after adding some 250 discount theatres. ROTS never did this. Sure, it probably meant only 5 million more to the domestic cume. Still, why does George have to be such a stickler about theatre-quality. He also could have opened Sith in an extra 400 theatres last May 19th to set opening records all but insurmountable.

    Also, two words: ROTS IMAX (okay, that's two acronyms, you get my drift)
     
  6. EDKRIEG

    EDKRIEG Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Jun 22, 2005
    Hi-I am back in cause the DC board has shut down posts!SR will do over 250 million this summer DOMESTIC. POTC slightly under 230 million.XMEN3 is a question because of reports of trouble with filming and the script.That is my prediction.XMEN3 gross -up in the air.
     
  7. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    M:I 3 will do M:I 2 numbers so 210 possibly

    Poseidon will need word of mouth so maybe 150

    DaVinci Code may not have Passion hype but have a good cume. 240 max

    X3 will open less than X2 and have worse legs. So maybe 190.

    Cars will tank. It looks bad. 130, bad for Pixar

    The thing about Superman is when I saw GOF, people were booing the trailer. I still say 205. I don't know how the international market is but 750 WW

    Pirates has become a cult film and has gained so much more of a fanbase in 3 years. Pirates will open around 70+ and end around 285 unless it has the original's legs.

    Zemeckis' Monster House I liked the trailer and so did the crowd I was with. 130 max

    Lady in the Water. This is the make or break for Shyamalan. I see it opening quite low after Village tanked, but if it's good 130 top, bad 80 million

    Miami Vice will barely make 100. If the Dukes could only do 80, I see this doing a little more.

     
  8. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    M:I 3 will open the summer movie season with a BANG! :D
    $80m opening
    $220m domestic
    $520m worldwide

    Poseidon doesn't look all that good to me...so:
    $50m opening
    $100-$130m domestic
    $300-330m worldwide

    DaVinci Code should do nicely.
    $175-$200m domestic
    $400-500m worldwide

    X3 will surprise EVERYONE! :D
    Opening on memorial weekend will help it greatly.
    $100m (fri-mon)opening
    $250m domestic (yes it'll out gross X2)
    $600m worldwide

    Cars could go either way.
    usual pixar hit $200-$250m
    or the first dispointment of the studio.
    $150-$175m

    POTC2 will open bigger then the first but not have the legs to pass the orignal.
    $80m opening
    $275m domestic

    Monster House will be lucky to top $100m.

    Lady in the Water will be another $100m hit for M.Night.
    lol it ain't do or die for him. lol check out his films total grosses.
    Studios will happily keep on giving him $$ to make films for them.

    Miami Vice :D i can't freaking wait. Mann makes the coolest films. (Heat,Collateral,Ali,Insider)
    $60m opening
    $150-$175m domestic
    $300-$400m worldwide

     
  9. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    Pirates is a real oddball. Pirates 1 opened on a Wednesday. Pirates 2 opens on a Friday. So the opening weekend should increase greatly. But as you say Dookie. The legs. It has to have legs. Something the original had.

    The other thing is POTC was against Bad Boys the week after and combo of Spy Kids 3, Seabiscuit and Tomb Raider 2 the week after that and it still had legs.
     
  10. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    no wonder it had great legs:pthose movies sucked.
     
  11. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    Bad Boys, Spy Kids and Seabiscuit all broke 100. You remember Seabiscuit's legs Dookie. Opened at 20 with at 120 cume. And that's before the Oscar nods.
     
  12. Jedi_Master_Conor

    Jedi_Master_Conor Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 24, 2005
    wow. the complete opposite happened when I saw GOF. people were clapping and cheering after the Superman Returns teaser trailer played
     
  13. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    Maybe people just wanted to rush through the trailers so GOF would start, but then why the same response the 4 times I saw GOF within a 2 month span. [face_thinking]
     
  14. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    just y'all wait till the next longer trailer. ;) (hopefully on 3/17/06)

    IT WILL FREAKING OWN!!
     
  15. Tyranus_the_Hutt

    Tyranus_the_Hutt Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 14, 2004
    This summer'll certainly be interesting as far as big releases go. You don't really have absolutely huge movies like ROTS or Harry Potter, but rather many movies that stand to make a huge chunk of change on opening weekend.

    There is always the likelihood of a breakout hit that few saw coming, such as last year?s "Wedding Crashers," which managed to rake in $200 million.

    Movies like POTC 2, X-Men 3, the next Superman, and MI: 3, just to name a few, all have the potential for having $40-50 million openings.

    On paper, all of the above titles appear to be of the "blockbuster" distinction; however, their actual box-office gross will be dependent upon a number of variables that cannot be determined at this point in time, such as critical reception, audience response, repeat viewings, etc.

    Oh, and it never ceases to amaze me how Narnia can continue to churn out $2 million weekends, even when it's been out for 13 weeks. The fact that it's above $280 million just boggles my mind.

    Do you think the film has a reasonable shot at reaching the $300 million mark? I tend to think that the picture will run out of steam well before it gets to that milestone (the DVD is set to arrive in stores next month), but I could be mistaken.

    It's like Fellowship of the Ring w/o the Best Picture nod. I thought the movie wouldn't break 250 and yet it chugged through January and February and March and made it almost to 315 almost beating Sorcerer's (Philospher's) Stone in 01.

    The film has maintained its weekly gross index in a tremendous fashion.

    With no SW, LOTR or Matrix films we have to rely on Narnia as a main source of fantasy.

    I liked the recent "Narnia" picture, but I didn?t love it. I certainly wouldn?t put it above some of the other big-ticket items to have been released theatrically in 2005, such as "Revenge of the Sith," "Batman Begins," "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire," and Moleman?s favorite movie, "King Kong," all of which I consider to be vastly superior films.

    I can't see Superman doing big numbers. It'll be lucky to do Batman Begins #'s. With Pirates 2 only 7 days after, there's goes your second week cume for SR. Then you have Monster House and Lady in the Water, which are both easily 130+ hits.

    "Superman Returns" will undoubtedly have a massively successful opening weekend; however, as it will have to contend with other blockbusters, such as the films you mention above, I am uncertain as to its ability to sustain a considerable three-day gross on each of the following weekends that it remains in wide-release. A number of things will have to work in the picture?s favor, such as strong word-of-mouth, good reviews, and perhaps some less-than-stellar competition (i.e. if any of the other films such as POTC 2, or "Lady in the Water" get critically excoriated or fare poorly with audiences, then that could help to buoy "Superman Returns").

    Cars will tank. It looks bad. 130, bad for Pixar

    Unless the film gets outstanding critical notices, I will probably try and avoid it.

    The thing about Superman is when I saw GOF, people were booing the trailer. I still say 205. I don't know how the international market is but 750 WW

    While I didn?t notice anyone booing the "Superman Returns" teaser back in November, the general consensus seems to be that it was not a particularly flattering advertisement; hopefully, this is not an indication of things to come (and there isn?t any reason to believe that it is...yet, at least).

    Pirates has become a cult film and has gained so much more of a fanbase in 3 years. Pirates will open around 70+ and end around 285 unless it has the original's legs.

    The first "Pirates" film exceeded all expectations (including those of Disney, the studio that released the picture) to become 2003?s surprise summer hit; as you indicate, the movie?s stature has grown over the past year and a half, which means that its sequel(s) may have to try and measure up to some pretty unreasonable expectations. If director G
     
  16. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004


    Oh thanks Ty. I just love Kong. That's why it put me to I-) :p

    I also forgot to mention The Inheritance Trilogy beginning this Christmas, "Eragon, Eldest and Empire"
     
  17. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    This just in.... Harry Potter has reached the $600 mill international mark....AGAIN for the third time.

    THE GOBLET OF FIRE
    $600 mill international
    $288 mill domestic
    $888 mill worldwide

    THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
    $540 mill
    $249 mill
    $789 mill

    THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS
    $614 mill
    $261 mill
    $876 mill

    THE SORCERER'S STONE
    $658 mill
    $317 mill
    $976 mill

    "He's a...machine."
     
  18. Shackleton

    Shackleton Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 16, 2004
    There is always the likelihood of a breakout hit that few saw coming, such as last year "Wedding Crashers," which managed to rake in $200 million.

    True, that I haven't considered. It'll be interesting to see what our breakout movies will be this summer.

    Do you think the film has a reasonable shot at reaching the $300 million mark? I tend to think that the picture will run out of steam well before it gets to that milestone (the DVD is set to arrive in stores next month), but I could be mistaken.

    I'm kinda in the same boat as you are. I think it'd be great if Narnia reached $300 million, but I really don't see that happening. It would need a sprint to the finish in order to top $300 million, and right now it looks to have the legs of an old man.

    The first "Pirates" film exceeded all expectations (including those of Disney, the studio that released the picture) to become 2003 surprise summer hit; as you indicate, the movie stature has grown over the past year and a half, which means that its sequel(s) may have to try and measure up to some pretty unreasonable expectations. If director Gore Verbinski and his cast cannot satisfy the core audience for this film, then the picture may well sink after its (sure to be) staggeringly successful opening weekend.

    I have fairly high expectations for Dead Man's Chest. If it's a good movie and has fairly good legs like it's predecessor did, $300 million will certainly be within reach.

    I liked the recent "Narnia" picture, but I didn love it. I certainly wouldn't put it above some of the other big-ticket items to have been released theatrically in 2005, such as "Revenge of the Sith," "Batman Begins," "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire," and Moleman favorite movie, "King Kong," all of which I consider to be vastly superior films.

    To be perfectly honest, I was not at all that impressed with Batman Begins and King Kong, Kong especially. I consider both movies to be worth a single admission ticket at the theater, but beyond that, I heavily doubt either of them will get anymore money from me. Kong just bored me in too many places, and I just feel like there isn't enough there to warrant me giving it anymore attention. ROTS and Potter, however, I both consider to be better films than Narnia.
     
  19. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    Narnia and Potter are neck and neck now. Only separated by .1 I still see Narnia winning out since it still has dollar theaters and Potter will probably be pulled with the DVD. 290 is still not out of reach for Narnia but it is for Potter.

    This is a closer race than Sorcerer's Stone and Fellowship.
     
  20. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
  21. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    how many more weeks we got left dude?
     
  22. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    This week Mar 3-5 is it. Dookie, you're going to need a miracle to upset Ty. Congrats on the win this week. :)
     
  23. smauldookie

    smauldookie Jedi Knight star 5

    Registered:
    Mar 5, 2002
    thx :)

    Ty's been freaking awsome. Like a freaking machine.
    No prob losing to him. ;) but........Revenge of the Dookie is coming.
    So be afraid........[face_devil] be very afraid.

     
  24. Ekenobi

    Ekenobi Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Apr 4, 2002
    I am disbuting this one:
    ***Date Movie 24th-26th February***
    Moleman $10.1m
    Mazter_Yoda $8.8m
    smauldookie $8.2m
    Tyi-Maet_Nefer $11m
    kartanym $7.9m
    Master_Jedi_Singh $9.5m
    Tyranus $8.5m

    The actual gross was $9,125,555, so the winner is smauldookie

    The winner should be Master_Jedi_Singh. So Tyi-Maet and Smauldookie should be tied with 6 wins.

     
  25. Mazter_Yoda

    Mazter_Yoda Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Nov 5, 2005
    Yet another loss for me after a long dissapearence. Theres no hope for me to get a win....even if someday nobody plays the game but me, i will STILL LOSE.

    Anyways, I hate superman so I wont go see that. I have not been to theaters since seeing King Kong 2 times. I dont seen any good movies on the horizon so I dont plan on going to theaters for awhile.

    The only time I expect to go to theaters is on the first or 2nd of April to see "Stay Alive" I saw the trailor and it looks decent to go see....and it has my favorite actor in it (frankie muniz from Malolm in the middle). But besides that I dont see any other movie worth going to see.

    X3 will probably be a wait for DVD movie for me.
     
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