The British Politics Discussion Thread

AJA

"Which wing of the party is he from?"

The PO'd wing.

 

From the Guardian:

Even critics of Mr Duncan Smith on the Tory frontbench rounded on Mr Blunt for his "lone" operation, which they predicted might have no impact on the Tory leader. "The reality is that Crispin is a plonker, although he is an amiable plonker. He does not speak for anyone else."

"No one has heard of Crispin Blunt. By what he has done, he has ensured that he will return to obscurity," [another] said.

 

My thoughts are that it is a lone operation. He is not well known and if this was a major plot against IDS a bigger name would be weilding the knife. If the conservatives have a good night this could be forgotten, if things go badly though others may take the oppurtunity to join him.

EDIT: The first result has been declared. The next hour or two will see most of them in.

 

In looking at the various British papers online, I noticed a sudden shift in tone in today's papers after IDS went after Blair on Wednesday. What had been a somewhat patronizing but amiable tone towards IDS suddenly turned into blistering assaults this morning (with the exception of the Telegraph). Usually, that means you're doing well.

 

Wait, the cons are saying they "expect" 30+ gains, yet everyone else expects a few hundred?



Talk about lowering the bar so you can declare a victory!

LOL.

"We won one seat. It was a great night! Blair is now in trouble!"

 

With 23 of 340 councils reported:

Conservatives have gained 26 seats and lost 2, while gaining control of 2 new councils.

Labour has gained 3 seats and lost 41, and lost control of 4 councils.

The Liberal Democrats have gained 17 seats and lost 10, and lost control of 1 council.

4 councils are NOC (no overall control).

 

Up to 45 reported. If the current ratio holds, which there's no guarantee of, the Tories will gain 300-400 seats.

 

IDS is the chosen one. He will bring balance to the brits.

 

The result has not been declared yet but apparantly Labour have lost control of Birmingham. The Lib Dems have made huge gains in traditional Labour inner city areas where anti-war sentiment was very strong among Muslim communities.

EDIT: Result declared

Labour lost 11 seats, LD gained 8 and the conservatives gained 4.

New Composition

Lab: 57
Con: 35
LD: 23
Other: 2

 

I've been watching some of the webcast of BBC One. The most ridiculously biased load of garbage I've ever seen. All the anchors looks like they're about to have a nervous breakdown, and there was just a five minute segment on "why the Tory gains don't mean anything". You all have to pay for this crap?

 

In Burnly the BNP have won 7 seats tonight and now have 8 seats and are the second largest party on the council. This isn't good.

 

So, Labour lost control of Birmingham by not having a clear majority?

What does this mean in the larger scheme of things?

 

What does this mean in the larger scheme of things?

On a national level nothing.

Here in Birmingham it will depend what happens. Labour may be able to form a coalition with the two 'others' which are from a small local party called The People's Justice Party. They are a Kashmiri group that contest a couple of inner city seats where where there are large Muslim communities. Birmingham has 140,000 muslims, 90,000 of them are of Kashmiri origin. This would create a coalition with a majority of one. Alternatively a coalition with the Lib Dems is possible but highly unlikely. Most likely Labour will run the city with a minority but will have to compromise to get their policies through votes by getting some opposition support. At their height of power Labour had 82 of 117 seats, now they have only 57.

EDIT: Lab regain Sheffied from Lib Dems

 

That didn't work.

 

So, thus far it appears to be a slight retreat from Labour by voters, but not a full-scale defection?

EDIT:

Saw your local council update AJA. Looks like the cons are gaining on labour for total number of councils.

 

Labour is getting whalloped. If the current pace holds, the Conservatives will hold the most seats in local governmnet, as well as the most councils under their control.

All of this is a way of proving that I was once again right.

 

Labour is getting whalloped. If the current pace holds, the Conservatives will hold the most seats in local governmnet, as well as the most councils under their control.

All of this is a way of proving that I was once again right.

Thats the positive spin, unfortunately this election shows that there is very little change in British politics. For the Conservatives to become a serious threat they would have to get around 40% of the vote, it looks like being 34%. The results are neither good or bad but middle of the road.

 

Man, these left-wing commentators really want to get rid of Duncan Smith. Their loathing for him is palpable.

Almost like the loathing the left in the U.S. has for President Bush...

This "analysis" being put forth by the BBC is astounding. The Conservatives are taking the top spot in local governments, and they're trying to call it a defeat.

Thats the positive spin, unfortunately this election shows that there is very little change in British politics. For the Conservatives to become a serious threat they would have to get around 40% of the vote, it looks like being 34%. The results are neither good or bad but middle of the road.

You odn't think Labour losing 85% of the seats they were contesting is significant?

 

You odn't think Labour losing 85% of the seats they were contesting is significant?

Where the hell did that figure come from. It is complete rubbish.

 

Ah...Nevermind. They've won 60 and lost 378 by the count I'm looking at, but I guess that doesn't include ones they held. Neverthless, losing 400+ seats can't be seen as minor.

EDIT: While I was typing that: Conservatives are up to 402 gained, Labour is up to 491 lost.

 

EDIT: While I was typing that: Conservatives are up to 402 gained, Labour is up to 491 lost.

They are only up by 321 at the moment but it looks like ending up fairly close to 500.

 

The estimates I saw all topped out at 400. I'd say 500 would be pretty significant. Not to mention the decline for Labour.

 

The estimates I saw all topped out at 400. I'd say 500 would be pretty significant. Not to mention the decline for Labour.

While 500 would be above expectations it still will not be considered massive. What you have to realise is that the party in Government can always expect a hammering in local elections unless they are very popular. When these seats were contested 8 years ago which was 2 years before the General election where Labour took power it was close to wipe out for the tories. They won just 13 councils compared to Labour's 102 councils.

 

Telegraph: "Conservatives make strong gains"
Guardian: "Tories fail poll test"
BBC: "We hate Tories"

Amusing.

 

I think that IDS will be feeling fairly happy at the moment and Crispin Blunt will be feeling a little bit stupid.

EDIT: Conservatives gains are upto 534