ST The Business Side of Making Episode VII

Yes let's not get too much ahead of ourselves. It will do very well, there is little doubt of that.
But I remember back in 2002 and many here were convinced that AotC would clear 400 M$ with no problem. It barely cleared 300 M$, which again is far from bad.
Or take the 3D-rerelase of TPM, several here thought it would do from 50-80 M$ and some over 100 M$. But it did only about 44 M$ and about 100 M$ in total world wide. Again not bad but not super great either.

Bye for now.
The Guarding Dark

 

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/star-wars-episode-vii-could-earn-2-billion-box-office-say-analysts-1446755

 

Just read an insider report saying they expect Star Wars to gross 2 billion worldwide, and break records. That's insane!

 

Oh, so I'm NOT the only one who noticed that the moment the Making of The Empire Strikes Back book was published, Michael Kaminski, who had so much to say beforehand, suddenly shut up and had nothing to say? And that he had even less to say when the Making of Return of the Jedi book came out? And that he now only says things (on extremely rare occasions) on his own website, where he's immune from our perfectly valid criticism, and sticks to topics that have NOTHING substantive to do with the issues raised by those books (the last post being more than a YEAR ago)? I called him out publicly in the past for being a coward, and I got savaged for telling the truth. If we're now calling him a fraud as well as a coward, is it safe to name something for what it actually is now?

 

As I've spelled out about a million times, so I won't belabor the point. I simply cannot see a scenario where Episode VII makes $2 billion worldwide simply because it would need to gross some $600+ million domestically to do that, and I simply do not see that happening as a holiday release. If it were a May/summer release I certain think it's possible. I see the film as more likely to gross $1.3 billion (low end) to $1.6 billion (high end).


Yancy

 

Fair enough but the International Business Times disagrees with you.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/star-wars-episode-vii-could-earn-2-billion-box-office-say-analysts-1446755

 

I see your point

Then again Yancy, I see IBT's point too!

 

It's not much of a risk if the script is good. If the movie is good ... people will come in droves to watch it.

If the script is bad and that translates to a dull movie ... then sure, Disney could be in some trouble, but even there I think they make a profit still.

 

The lowest grossing Star Wars film, adjusted for inflation, is 2002's Attack of the Clones, with $434 Million.

My take-away from this chart is, if Episode 7 doesn't make at least $450 Million domestically next year, it's going to be viewed largely as a box office disappointment, comparatively, by box office analysts, the press, and those that follow such things. Since the Prequel trilogy is so maligned I think most people just expect that if Ep. 7 is better than those films, by nature it should earn more than they did. Yet, the Prequels, adjusted for inflation, earned between $434 Million (AOTC) and $708 Million (TPM), numbers that would place all 3 Prequels among the top 10 domestic earners of all time. By that measure, Episode 7 would have to be a phenomenal blockbuster on the order of Avengers, Titanic or Avatar just to not be regarded as a box office disappointment.

Virtually every film studio would kill to have a franchise film that could break $400 Million domestically, yet if Episode 7 topped out at such a number, I think the final word by analysts would be that the film underperformed because it couldn't even match, adjusted, the numbers of the lowest grossing Prequel film, and no matter how good Ep 7 really was that would just be summed up as a disappointment, especially considering how maligned the Prequels have become. How weird, then, that this new movie almost has to earn $500M, $600M, even $700M domestically just to match what the Prequel films did domestically.

What do you think? If Ep. 7 topped out at lets say $450 Million or less domestically, would it be viewed as a box office disappointment?

 

Which goes to show that if any analyst thinks the previous Star Wars films have 'underperformed', then they need an analyist...

 

I'm simply not confident the film can overcome the Holiday break and kids going back to school in early January. People keep harping on Avatar, but again some 80% (that number comes directly from 20th Century Fox) of audiences saw the film in 3-D, hyperinflating its box office returns; Star Wars won't really have that benefit. And Titanic is not a good comparison as it was one of those once in a lifetime box office events. So what we are left with is comparing the film to other December releases. Again, that's why Horn is anxious to get future Star Wars films out of this December slot.

If the film makes around $400 domestically (which is where I think it will fall), is really good, and finds a large audience on home video, then there's every reason to believe Episode VIII will be huge. I really think Disney just wants to get this film out of the gate. Between overseas grosses and merchandising sales they will be just fine.


Yancy

 

I know it's obvious... but it's all about a return on investment. They want to maximise that return... so ultimately it's not just about what a film makes, but what it cost to make. As long as they get good returns, it will be considered a financial success by Disney/Lucasfilm... as Gallandro states, $400M + will be positive.

 

I think if Ep 7 is considered a critical success ( we all pray for a great movie right), it will easily do $500 mill +, even if its not the summer season. I think "Yancy" has valid points above too about the christmas season being a less lucrative period, but i simply do not believe Disney and Alan Horn would put the film in there, december 2015, if they would risk loosing out on about 150 - 200 mill at the domestic box office. They would force through a summer 2016 opening instead. Let other companies move and bleed for the memorial day weekend. Also, i think, because its the first film in the trilogy, it will bee seen as a event in every aspect.

Which you then can argue, Avatar was, as the first really brilliant 3D promoted movie, thats why it reached those sums at the box office it did. So an argument that films in general does less business over the mid, late december period is partly correct, and thats also why blockbusters seldom are premiering at those weeks, but like Titanic and Avatar shows, its possible, if you have an "larger than life event", kind of, to sell. The Hobbit films have used that slot now, but its fair to say, Star Wars is much bigger in the USA than Tolkien, in terms of being a pop culture topic. If Ep 7 is a fantastic film, people will see it again and again, and i think a $ 600 million + is within reach. Double that in foreign box office, where markets like China ( Captain America has done over $ 100 mill alone in China) and Russia are huge these days, they were not even there when Phantom Menace was released. Then, we are looking at about $ 1.800.000 mill in total, which is realistic i think. And then its a big success, and Disney can start counting the money from the toy sale etc. But 450 would be seen as disappointing yes....

 

The interesting thing to see will be how these new films play in China, which has emerged in the past 6-7 years as fertile ground at the boxoffice.

Also there is a reason for simply putting the film out there. It's still going to make a ton of money in merchandising alone; that will more than offset any box office returns.

But more importantly, if they were to delay the film again to May 2016 you start running into scheduling issues for the actors, for Disney and its plans for Summer 2016. Additionally, with another delay you run the risk of being labeled a "troubled production" and that is certainly press Disney wants to avoid.


Yancy

 

Episode VII could do serious business, so long as it is good.

Even if does a TPM and makes loads of money just on hype, if it turns out to be as disappointing it will affect the box office of the other movies even if they are better.

 

For Ep VII to reach $600 million domestically and $2 billion globally, it will IMO need to be a truly great "event" movie that generates tons of positive popular buzz and critical acclaim, which will in turn enable it to dominate the box office for several weeks, like The Avengers did two years ago. A movie that is simply good but not great, which is IMO what Abrams' two Star Trek movies were, will not cut it. Still, even if Ep VII "only" makes about $450 million domestically and is considered a disappointment by some analysts, it should still generate a lot of profit for Disney thanks to merchandising, an aspect of the movie business at which the Star Wars franchise is second to none.

However, what wouldn't surprise me is if Ep VII does fail to reach epic profits... and then Ep VIII does. Ep VII does have the negative feelings about the PT to overcome, as well the holidays perhaps not being the best time to release it. After all, it would not be the first time that a first movie in a trilogy/series made only decent profits, while its follow-up is the records-shatterer. Think of Batman Begins and The Dark Knight... and BB having to deal with lingering negative feelings for previous Batman movies.

 

Do you really think The Avengers was truly great? I think many critics would tell you both Star Treks are far superior films, especially the first but that's beside the point. What has the potential to make truckloads is a movie with a huge brand name and Star Wars certainly qualifies

 

This had already been debunked to death. general audiences were just fine with the PT... go look at the unadjusted numbers. As for Batman Begins vs The Dark Knight box office performance, that had more to do with BB's home video performance (which was enormous) and the hype surrounding Heath Ledger's (which brought a lot of non comic book fans to theaters) suicide than anything.


Yancy

 

Lord of the Rings & The Hobbit have had great success being released in December

 

Domestically the biggest Lord of the Rings release was Return of the King which grossed $377 million.

 

SimitarLikeTusk: Yes, I do think The Avengers was a great movie, going both by Rotten Tomatoes for critical acclaim and Box Office Mojo for commercial success. I'm admittedly biased because I absolutely loved the movie, but considering its performance, it does seem that a great many people agree with me.

Gallandro: Looking at the adjusted numbers dolphin posted, which come from Box Office Mojo, only TPM broke the domestic $600 million mark, and I would contend that was mostly because everyone was enthused at the return of Star Wars movies when TPM opened. But IMO due at least in part to a substantial number of people being disappointed by TPM, neither of its sequels even reached the $500 million mark in adjusted dollars.

 

If Disney truly thought a December release would hurt the box office Im sure theyd delay it to 2017. They employ people far more qualified than us to work this stuff out after all. Arent you forgetting Avatar, the biggest movie of all time, opened in December?
I liked Avengers, but I dont think it has alot of artistic merit. Its kind of a big, dumb, cheesy movie.

 

No, you need to look at the entire run of the film. Phantom menace was one of the last films to have a very long shelf life. As I've chronicled many times it was still doing double digit weekends two months into its run and was still taking in double digit weekly box office takes into late September... Avengers didn't even do that. You're simply not going to get an extended shelf life for a film general audiences hate. That's simply not happening. As for AOTC, its performance is pretty simple... it ran into Spiderman which performed about as well as the Avengers did years later. General audiences simply wanted to see something fresh... a big budget superhero film.

As I said early regarding Avatar, according to Fox, 80% of the audience saw the movie in 3-D. the average cost of a regular movie ticket in 2009 was $7.50, but the average cost of a 3-D ticket was $12.23. You would have to readjust the math for 80% of it's gross to reflect those numbers. Avatar's take would be far less impressive. In fact it would be even more complex as you would have to figure out actual tickets sales. Boxoffice mojo's ticket sales numbers are based on taking the final gross and dividing it by the final box office take, but it does not take into account 3-D ticket prices, it's just dividing $749 million by $7.50


Yancy

 

That's a really good analogy, actually.

Still, I look at established the pattern; A New Hope is the highest earner of the OT, Phantom Menace the highest earner of the PT. Both were the first film of each trilogy. Return of the Jedi is the second highest earner of the OT (in its initial theatrical run), Revenge of the Sith the second highest earner of the PT. Both were the third film released in their respective trilogies. The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones, each the second film released in their respective trilogies, were the lowest earners (in their initial theatrical runs. You'll notice TESB beat ROTJ in both it's re-release and Special Edition releases, as the former had overtaken the latter in terms of public perception by then).

I believe the relatively disappointing box office of AOTC can be chalked up to a backlash against the hype and disappointment many people had with TPM. ROTS rebounded largely because it had better word of mouth. I guess what I'm saying is, I expect the pattern to continue. Hype alone will drive Ep. VII to epic numbers, but only meeting expectations will keep Ep. VIII from taking a serious dip.

 

I'm still expecting it to do better than the latest Treks, but not as good as the Avengers. Regardless of the pop culture legacy of Episodes I-III, I think there's simply too much competition these days for Star Wars to transcend what the other big franchises are doing. Perhaps the more intriguing question is how well all the toys and other tie-ins will do. I'd imagine that is the trump card Star Wars is expected to hold over things like Avatar, the Hobbit, and even some of the superheroes.