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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Senate The European Politics Thread

Discussion in 'Community' started by DANNASUK, Feb 16, 2017.

  1. Darth_Omega

    Darth_Omega Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 19, 2002
    CDU - 32.5%
    SPD - 20%
    Die Linke - 9%
    Die Grune - 9.5%
    AfD -13.5%
    FDP - 10.5%

    A grand (CDU+SPD) or Jamaica (CDU+FDP+Grune) coalitions are the most likely outcome, although in either case it will only have a small majority.
     
  2. yankee8255

    yankee8255 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 31, 2005
    13.5% for AfD, and Merkel only 32.5%, 20% for SPD. German television calling it an earthquake, definitely agree. AfD third strongest party.

    Most likely will see the “Jamaica” coalition of CDU, FDP and Greens.
     
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  3. Darth_Voider

    Darth_Voider Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 4, 2015
    SPD just announced it will go into opposition.

    With that, it will almost certainly be a Jamaica coalition.

    Gesendet von meinem SM-J510FN mit Tapatalk
     
  4. DANNASUK

    DANNASUK Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Nov 1, 2012
    Wowzer.
     
  5. Alpha-Red

    Alpha-Red Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Apr 25, 2004
    Wait, the CDU has black as their color? I thought only ISIS did that.
     
  6. DANNASUK

    DANNASUK Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Nov 1, 2012
    No personal attacks
     
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  7. DarthPhilosopher

    DarthPhilosopher Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Jan 23, 2011
    Not unexpected results in Germany unfortunately. If the SPD are truly committed to going into opposition that makes the CDU-led coalition potentially unstable, given they will have to work with both the FDP and (probably) Die Grune. The good news about German politics is that no party will work with the AfD.
     
  8. Alpha-Red

    Alpha-Red Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Apr 25, 2004
    So if Merkel is doing that "asymmetric demobilization" thing where she copies bits and pieces of the SPD's policies in order to make her own party as uncontroversial as possible, doesn't that mean the CDU and SPD have the most in common and they ought to form a coalition again?
     
  9. Oissan

    Oissan Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    That isn't to say that this will hurt the AfD. The FPÖ got the same treatment in Austria, and look where it is now. The AfD most definately isn't suitable for any other party, nor would the AfD even want to work with the other parties, but that doesn't mean that treating the AfD as a pariah will cause it to go away in the future. Though I do think that they got plenty of protest votes that aren't truly in line with the AfD. That's likely true for the other small parties as well, though to a lesser extend. Having four small parties combine for ~40% of the votes is basically unheard of.

    The SPD desperately wants to avoid that. Being in that kind of coalition only hurts them, even when they get to pass all their stuff. The current government was driven by SPD-ideas, even though the CDU was the clear winner of the last election. This didn't help the SPD at all. People who are happy with the way things are vote for Merkel, those who don't, don't vote for the SPD, because the SPD carried that program as well. They really need to get into the opposition and hope that the other parties will have a troubling relationship. With Merkel likely gone after this term, being in the opposition is much better than being the junior partner in a coalition with the CDU.

    In general, CDU and FDP are quite a bit closer to each other than CDU and SPD, though they can't form a coalition right now, at least not on their own. Merkel has pulled the CDU to the center and into SPD-territory, but the party itself isn't really in that spot. Members follow her out off loyalty, or because openly opposing her would hurt the party, but once she is gone the party will probably move more to the center-right again.
     
  10. DarthPhilosopher

    DarthPhilosopher Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Jan 23, 2011
    For the AfD it could go many different ways, and it really depends mainly upon what happens in Europe and Germany with the migrant situation. I think the dynamic is a bit different than that of the FPÖ in Austria. Firstly the FPÖ is a long established party in Austria and is more than just a protest party - this means the probablility of it surviving long term and not collapsing due to internal dividion is far different than that of the AfD. Secondly the Austrians have less of a tradition of absolutely isolating the far right, with the FPÖ forming coalition governments a couple of times since 1945. While the Germans are protesting with voting for the AfD, they hold very little ideological support amongst the German population, and with 80-odd politicians in the Bundestag saying stupid stuff nationally, I doubt the protest support will hold up for long given German contempt for their ideological underpinnings. The CDU will also move back to a more centre-right conservatism after Merkel and will take up most of their votes (hopefully).

    Isolating the AfD may not change their support amongst the population, but it does mean that their programme will not get any hearing in government policy decisions.
     
  11. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2001
    Having heard a number of German citizens interviewed on Deustche Welle and Radio Nederlands, mostly from blue collar backgrounds, I'm not really sure it's an accurate statement to claim there's no ideological support. A lot of Germans seem to be sick of immigration, and the stupid martyr move of taking 1mil refugees to shame Europe into action will not have given those Germans any reason to change their minds.
     
  12. DarthPhilosopher

    DarthPhilosopher Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Jan 23, 2011
    As I said, there is some ideological support, but I don't think it's as significant as the exit polls suggest. I have heard some interviews on Die Welt were the voters have stated that they are fine with usual immigration policy and immigrants themselves, but that the 1 million people increase in such a short period of time is simply unsustainable. You might say that they are simply trying to justify a deeper prejudice, but I'm going to take those former centrist voters at their word. I think, given that the current migrant policy is contested within the CDU and its Barvarian counterpart, that after Merkel they will move a little rightward on the policy and pick up these voters who generally don't agree with the AfDs broader nationalist programme.
     
  13. JoinTheSchwarz

    JoinTheSchwarz Former Head Admin star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Novara has just released a pretty fair explainer, although it fails to analyze the bizarre composition of the independentist alliance and how past corruption cases have affected some of its more visible figureheads: http://novaramedia.com/2017/09/24/catalonia-in-revolt-how-did-we-get-here-and-what-happens-next/
     
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  14. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    Thanks heaps.
     
  15. JoinTheSchwarz

    JoinTheSchwarz Former Head Admin star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2002
    Sorry it took so long, but coverage is being dismal.
     
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  16. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    No worries! And yes, coverage is terrible. Looking at most news outlets you'd think this whole Catalonia situation just popped out of thin air.
     
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  17. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    "worst constitutional crisis since the end of the dictatorship"



    My wife and son finally received their absentee ballots for the Austrian election, not a moment too soon.
     
  18. yankee8255

    yankee8255 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 31, 2005
    As I understand it (from the Aubrey-Maturin novels) the issue of Catalonian independence goes back hundreds of years, correct?
     
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  19. JoinTheSchwarz

    JoinTheSchwarz Former Head Admin star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2002
  20. Rylo Ken

    Rylo Ken Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Dec 19, 2015
    let's not forget what's really important in all this: preserving Barcelona's status as the semester abroad Mecca for U.S. undergraduates who don't speak much Spanish when they arrive and won't speak much more when they leave.
     
  21. JoinTheSchwarz

    JoinTheSchwarz Former Head Admin star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2002
    No problem. Sevilla is the ideal substitute.
     
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  22. yankee8255

    yankee8255 Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 31, 2005
    More importantly, what’s with Mallorca wanting to raise tourism taxes? We were there this summer and loved it, can’t wait to go back.

    I can understand getting rid of the English and Germans, of course. The Ballermann section of Palma is a disgrace.
     
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  23. JoinTheSchwarz

    JoinTheSchwarz Former Head Admin star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2002
    You can like it all the same but just paying more money. It will actually make you appreciate Mallorca that much more. They are making you a favor, actually.
     
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  24. Ender Sai

    Ender Sai Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2001
    Will that increase the price of a glass of Watney's Red Barrel, though?
     
  25. Chyntuck

    Chyntuck Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 11, 2014
    About the Catalonia referendum, Politico Europe produced this timeline of events. It's quite detailed but lacks a bit of context.

    Now I have a pretext to read the Aubrey-Maturin novels :p It's certainly going to be a longer read than Orwell's Homage to Catalonia.