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Discussion TLJ The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Sequel Trilogy (Released Films)' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

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How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.4%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.8%
  1. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    Here is probably a better way to judge legs than the multiplier system. Rogue One made 377m after OW. TLJ currently sits at 362m after OW and will be within a couple million after the holiday. So TLJ really does have better legs than Rogue One.
     
  2. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    December multipliers for the Middle Earth movies are a TAD bit misleading because a bunch of them opened on Wednesdays. That automatically reduces the Friday-Sunday totals meaning you have a bigger multiplier. You need to look at the multiplier on top of the 4 or 5 day opening. Maybe take the average of the two to get something in the middle. They are all still well above TLJ though.BUT still Hobbit3's multiplier over the 5-day opening was 2.86x. It's mult over the 3-day was 4.72x. The average of the two was 3.79x. I don't know of any other fair way to factor those with 4 or 5 day openings.

    But yes TLJ reaching $620 million is unexpected by us at least. Besides a couple of holdouts, you won't find many people at all in the past 300+ pages having predicted less than $650 or even less than $680 million prior to release or even prior to that first Monday.

    @jamminjedi23 and yes what you say is also a way to look at it. What it boils down to is multipliers versus raw numbers.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
    Othini and La Calavera like this.
  3. zackm

    zackm Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Couldn't the poor legs also just be the result of huge hype? If it had opened at 190 instead of 220, the legs would be "better" but it still wouldn't have made any more money. The problem with multipliers is that you penalize movies that over-perform in their OW. I don't think anybody was projecting a 220 opening.
     
  4. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Let's have the best multiplier of all times: we open in 10 theaters, then after the opening we open on 4000 theaters. Booom, multiplier !

    Or... burn out all demand on the opening, earn more money than all other movies of 2017, and profit like mad.
     
  5. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Day 25 to Day 31 domestic box office
    The Avengers: $39,578,739
    The Force Awakens: $39,540,130
    Jurassic World: $34,146,615
    Avengers Age of Ultron: $22,689,251
    Rogue One: $21,194,999
    The Last Jedi: $19,083,038 (current Deadline projection)
     
    n8storm likes this.
  6. ByteSizeRick

    ByteSizeRick Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 8, 2018
    Absolutely, 5 days openings are hard to handle. You are 100% right there.

    Absolutely. My feeling is that the muliplier system is "supposed" to work because multiples are just that multiples of an existing number so it *should* roughly scale to any level (obviously it isn't that clean). If you start at $15M your movie had "good" legs to get to $45M while if you start at $200M "good" means something else. But I hear you. We are dealing in rarefied air with the Star Wars films, and there isn't a lot of great data. Still as Rogue One was only last year and was in the ball park with a $150M opening (3rd biggest), I don't think it was any nefarious scheme for folks to apply the RO multiplier to $220M and get $750M or so.
     
  7. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    No Nefarious scheme but the people definitely were working with a lack of data and a flawed system. If they were working for an actual business they would never be able to make projections like that based on such little information.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
    ByteSizeRick likes this.
  8. veritasluxmea

    veritasluxmea Jedi Youngling

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    Yeah in South Korea,too. Almost all the named Korean critics including some popular Youtubers, praised the Last Jedi, and after watching the movie many people suspected they were all paid. haha
     
    Dr_Cthulhu likes this.
  9. zackm

    zackm Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    I don't think it was nefarious, but that doesn't make it useful either. Nobody has any idea how a 200+ December release should perform. We just don't have remotely enough data points. For this movie, pre-opening projections are much more useful than post-opening projections. My guess is that it's performing only slightly under pre-opeing projections.
     
  10. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Avengers number must have been Memorial Day weekend right? It was boosted by that. Also the first one in the series. JW is not a sequel as well. TFA, we know we could just forget that one. Age of Ultron is more correct in comparison i would say. TLJ already has $ 100 mill more than the total gross of AOU. AOU made over $ 946 mill overseas - take China gross away and you end up with similar TLJ overseas projections.
     
  11. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Not Box Office related. And the idea that everyone who loved TLJ was paid by Disney is idiotic.

    I want my money, then.
     
  12. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    Just like when the critics trashed the DC movies people would go online and say that they were paid off by Disney/Marvel to hate on the film. It's probably a lot of the same people making those comments as well.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
  13. The Wagonmaster

    The Wagonmaster Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Sep 24, 2017
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi is the biggest Box Office decline for a sequel in film history, with a 700,000,000 dollar drop from the original.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
  14. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    Yawn.
     
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  15. The Wagonmaster

    The Wagonmaster Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Sep 24, 2017
    But it is.
     
  16. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    And how many other sequels were following a movie that made over two billion????????
     
  17. The Wagonmaster

    The Wagonmaster Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Sep 24, 2017
    I think it has less to do with following a two billion dollar film and more to do with bad word of mouth among fans.
     
  18. zackm

    zackm Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    How much would it have made with good WOM?
     
  19. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    No I think people want to say TLJ is a bomb first and then creating statistics that tries to prove that narrative second.
     
    jaqen likes this.
  20. OriForce

    OriForce Jedi Padawan

    Registered:
    Dec 20, 2015
    You are playing strawman. Not everyone who loved TLJ was paid by Disney, I agree. But the original post(s) you replied to alluded to the the journalists writing rave reviews for TLJ. And if you bother to check the dates of their publications, 3 out of 4 of them were dated 13th Dec (before the release dates of TLJ in their countries and after the review embargo), meaning that these were the journalists paid by Disney to fly across Pacific ocean (to and fro) to attend the LA premiere and stayed overnight (or even longer) in LA. I doubt when writing their TLJ reviews these journalists were free of concern of their future chances of being invited by Disney again to attend big premieres if their reviews of TLJ were anything short of rave hyped praises.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
    dan1210 likes this.
  21. The Wagonmaster

    The Wagonmaster Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Sep 24, 2017
    So it's a conspiracy, is what you're saying?
     
  22. Aetius888

    Aetius888 Jedi Master star 2

    Registered:
    May 23, 2005
    It's safe to say that it didn't perform as well as hoped after opening weekend.
     
    Luke02 likes this.
  23. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    Yes that is basically exactly what it is. The only way a statistic like that would hold any relevance at all would be if there were other sequels out there that followed a 2 billion dollar movie.
     
  24. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    It was only $30 million ahead of Rogue One for a while minus the opening weekend, and with the Deadline projection it'll shrink to $28 million ahead. If it keeps falling behind RO, the gap will shrink between the two.
     
  25. zackm

    zackm Jedi Knight star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Top 5/6 DOM all time. Top 8/9 WW all time.

    "But it made 700m less than TFA."

    Indeed. TFA was an absolute BO beast.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
    BigAl6ft6, Ricardo Funes and jaqen like this.