ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Also in my opinion yesterday was a pretty odd day at the box office. A lot of movies opening or expanding hitting a lot of different demographics: Jumanji and the Post at the top with Paddington, Commuter, Proud Mary, Insidious and TLJ scrapping it out for the rest of the weekend.

 

Do we have updated numbers for today?

 

Your use of CinemaScore is interesting. When it seemed sites were being review bombed, everyone here trotted out that "A" from them, because it was science.
However, TLJ now seems on track to do the near the impossible....obliterate science. CinemaScore has only a margin of error of 6%. An "A"rating gives an average multiplier of 3.6. TLJ keeps falling and is now 2.85ish.
There is an honest discussion to be had here. This movie has left approximately 120 million on the table, based on scientific polling. It would seem the review bombed sites have more accurately predicted a drop off.

 

So, speaking of "science", what's the standard deviation on that?

 

Oye I just saw that post saying Deadline lowerered the weekend outlook again to under $11 million. Another 54% drop? Two weeks in a row? 50% drop average for the first 4 weekends. Ouch! I realize it's a bit more frontloaded than R1 and TFA but an average of 50% drops is just not warranted.

 

The point is , that it is completely disingenuous to trot out that "A", without looking how TLJ completely failed to stay on target. From below...
"My colleague Anita Busch detailed thoroughly how CinemaScore works. They literally have a Coca-Cola-like statistical formula that they’ve perfected for close to 40 years which accurately projects final domestic box office results off audience reactions. A+ grades generate on average a 4.8 multiple for a movie off its opening and A grades 3.6x. CinemaScore only polls audiences on Friday night from 35 to 45 pollster teams in 25 cities including Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Denver, Dallas, Portland, St. Louis, Atlanta, Tampa, Philadelphia, and Memphis. Pollsters randomly choose six theaters in six cities (one theater in each city) to get to an ultimate goal of 400 to 600 ballots. The margin of error is only 6% on 300 ballots."

http://deadline.com/2017/12/star-wa...c-imdb-users-cinemascore-posttrak-1202228837/

 

And I suppose their margin of error is as good or even better than the ones for the US Election, right?

Point being, who cares about their margin of error? Who cares about multipliers? Do you want a great multiplier? Open in 10 theaters, then expand to 4000. Would that make you happy? Ohhh, look, a 400x multiplier !

 

I've got TLJ at $619 million domestic now. The bar keeps lowering. This deal is getting worse all the time.

I've altered the projected domestic intake. Pray I don't alter it any further.

 

The Force Awakens: -42.55% average weekend drop (Weekends 2 to 5)
Rogue One: -43.93% average weekend drop (Weekends 2 to 5)
The Last Jedi: -50.68% average weekend drop (Weekends 2 to Deadline estimate for Weekend 5)

 

But we need to know how big the target is, right? IOW, are those average multipliers all that meaningful?

The margin of error is being given for the score. What I'm asking here is, given the score, how varied is the associated multiplier? Because for all we know, TLJ is within one standard deviation of the mean multiplier for movies receiving an "A". And that's assuming that the multiplier follows a normal distribution.

Edit: It should also be added that, even if TLJ is some extreme outlier, all that suggests is that either a) there in fact is some other factor at play here besides word-of-mouth, or b) the model needs to be reassessed. If anything, latching onto this model means the reception to the movie is not the problem.

 

Definitely more trustworthy then rotten tomatos

 

Top 2017 Movies at the Worldwide Box Office

1 2017 Beauty and the Beast $1,263,714,165
2 2017 Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi $1,237,947,584

Only 25.7M to go ! #1 of 2017 is coming !

Party preparation... commence !

 

Right so after 361 pages, those who defended the performance of this film could always point to the "A" TLJ acheived, citing the science over other review sites. However, when pointed out that it is actually performing quite poorly for an "A", it must be a deviation in the statistical formula.
This was to encourage discussion. Darth Off, out.

 

Episode 9 will make more then TLJ. I am almost sure of it.

 

I think we can come up with a handful of statements that most people would agree on...

1. TLJ has done extremely well at the BO and made Disney and Lucasfilm a bunch of money.
2. The legs have not been very good. Whether this is due to an over-performance on OW, mixed WOM, or a combination of both is impossible to say.
3. The total haul is most likely on the low end of pre-OW expectations, but definitely within the window of realistic projections.

 

Ya I dont really know how you could argue with that.

 

Yes, I'd agree with all that, except I'd add the performance of Jumanji could also be a factor for #2.

 

I saw the 11:20 matinee this morning, still about 25% full even that early, so not bad.

I like this movie more each time I see it, and see why the top critics almost universally like it. It really is well made all the way around, and the acting is of quality. Daisy and Driver really stand out, but others are quite good too.

If making hardcore fans mad is the price to pay for quality movies, I sure hope they keep doing just that. Clearly, they don't need the hardcore fans to do amazing numbers.

 

Indeed. All kinds of things could have played a role. I think Jumanji would definitely be one of them.

 

You know, maybe it's the hardcore fans that have affected the legs. They caused the extreme frontloading by not returning after OW?

In that spirit, underneath the noise, he's the estimated trendline:

 

Yeah, $600 million could be either next Friday or Saturday. With these numbers I got it pegged by next Sunday. Yep, it will come in third but its still amazing and cross the mark. Heck for the second time in a row, we got Fast and the Furious and soon we will become the number 1 movie. Also, yep, this movie more than RO and TFA has bigger drops, and at the rate its going by the time we get to the end of January this movie is going to get peanuts....after Tuesday of this week, it will fall faster, but so what. It made its money and all we need are the $600 million mark and the 2017 WW mark and that is it. It doesn't need to pass Avengers to make any statement. The movie did what it had to do, and it didn't fail

 

Really a very odd angle on it. I guess its a new one though. Does not mean much. Glad you were not here in the box office thread pre TFA opening - since using conservative audience polls, marketing statistics for December were used against TFA being huge - proved to be wrong. In fact TFA rewrote some rules. Whether TLJ leaves $ 120 mill on the table, is ( as stated many times ) because of bad WOM or whatever, is really nothing you will able to prove. Except you can believe what you want ( some people think the RT audience score is the gospel) of course. And please, you are welcome to do so. I hope you enjoyed the film though.

 

Can anyone tell me what WOM means.

 

Word-of-mouth.

 

Ah thanks