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ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Sequel Trilogy' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

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How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.3%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.9%
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  1. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    The theaters in that era had an... aura... it was special.
     
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  2. AndyLGR

    AndyLGR Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    May 1, 2014
    I couldn’t care less about your agenda against Disney. You didn’t like the latest films and you went and found (or created?) a video that marries up with your negativity, that you thought is an opinion we should listen to. I’m really not interested in what you think or what these click bait videos say either. They are feeding off negative options for their own gain. These are just films, pieces of entertainment for people to enjoy or not as the case may be.
     
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  3. jaqen

    jaqen Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 22, 2004
    Sound like you're confusing your own subjective view of the financial viability and quality of Disney-LFL Star Wars with objective facts.

    The above is #wishfulthinking.

    And to what end?
     
  4. vong333

    vong333 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 18, 2003
    By Saturday this movie will be at $615 million, its not making many many more millions. It's a crawl out of the box office. What I find incredible is that Jumanji is like less than $500 million from TLJ. Never the thought the movie would get thattttt close. Oh well, hopefully Jumaji can slow down a bit and you know....not get closer.
     
  5. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    [​IMG]

    Movie did better than Disney's estimates for the weekend. The Super Bowl didn't dent the numbers on Sunday to the extent they thought it would.

    TLJ underneath RO by 17.44% in past 7 days according to actuals through Sunday.
    RO earned $7,544,933 after Day 52.
    $7,544,933 - 17.44% = $6,229,096
    TLJ has earned $614,455,022 at the end of Day 52.
    $614,455,022 + $6,229,096 = $620,684,118 final if TLJ does no better and no worse than past 7 days in same amount of days
     
    jaqen likes this.
  6. n8storm

    n8storm Jedi Master star 1

    Registered:
    May 24, 2005
    Actuals for weekend for Last Jedi: 15th place: $2,338,242
     
  7. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    Hope it can have this little boost both domestic and worldwide to beat Avengers and HP.
     
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  8. n8storm

    n8storm Jedi Master star 1

    Registered:
    May 24, 2005
    Last Jedi is limping now and theaters will want Black Panther on a lot of screens coming up, so it will be tough.
     
  9. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Theater losses
    TFA: 2556 (Day 49) -> 2262 (Day 50) [-11.50%]
    TLJ: 1745 (Day 49) -> 1467 (Day 50) [-15.93%]
    RO: 2049 (Day 49) -> 1613 (Day 50) [-21.28%]
     
  10. jaqen

    jaqen Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 22, 2004
    Why is that a hope? What does it matter?
     
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  11. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Oh sure, Jumanji is sooo close to TLJ.... only 500 million dollars. [face_laugh]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2018
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  12. Lee_

    Lee_ Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Nov 3, 2012
    Apologists? That comes from an angry place (not like "haters," which is accurate).

    I have no reason to apologize for a massive critical and commercial success that I liked; your hate won't change that. And it only bodes positively for future movies; and this Solo trailer looks good I think.

    It has a lot of tough competition, but I still wouldn't be surprised if it came in as the #1 movie for the fourth year in a row. Then where would you project your hate? You better start hating Star Trek, at least then you stand a good chance of hating a failed movie (or even Transformers).
     
  13. DominusNovus

    DominusNovus Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    No, it doesn't. The word 'apologist' simply refers to someone who speaks out in defense of something. Thats it. If you don't like that word and it has negative connotations to you personally, allow me to assure you that I mean it strictly in its dictionary sense, and you are free to read it as such. I could go into a tangent on how many proudly wear the label of 'apologist' when they're speaking in defense of something they hold dearly, but I would just suggest you do a little light reading on the topic - suffice to say that many of the great philosophers and theologians of history are known as apologists.

    I'll leave the comment regarding labelling people as haters alone.
     
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  14. ComfortablyNunb

    ComfortablyNunb Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Nov 21, 2015
    Wow, I was perfectly on target about opening weekend (220M), but comically wrong about the worldwide total and China. I had no idea Disney wasn't making a push in China this time out -- SW is a tough sell over there for reasons both cultural and technical (TFA was the first SW even released in China), so I guess they abandoned it completely. Makes sense.

    As for the overall underperformance, I think people are overlooking the simplest explanation: JUMANJI. Neither TFA nor Rogue One had to compete against a fellow blockbuster. Jumanji is a four-quadrant, star-studded, tentpole movie for the entire family -- it even has the cross-generational appeal due to the Jumanji name/Robin Williams. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that the divisive reception to TLJ among many fans had no effect. But honestly, these are issues that mostly affect diehard fans. Most everyone else saw it once, and whether or not they enjoyed it, weren't going to see it again anyway.

    A casual audience member in 2015 might pay to see TFA twice with the alternatives being Daddy's Home and Sisters. But in 2017, a casual viewer split their money between TLJ and Jumanji. Not to mention Pitch Perfect and Greatest Showman were pretty strong counter-programming options as well.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
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  15. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    'Apologist' technically would fit someone who likes the film and is trying to defend it (on a fan site dedicated to the franchise the film is in) but it still isn't a very nice word to use. The equivalent would basically be to call you a 'hater'. And I doubt too many people that dislike the film want to be categorized as a 'hater'. So if you don't want to be called that you probably shouldn't use the word apologist.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
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  16. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    I hate one thing: that people still insist to build a narrative and say TLJ was divisive.

    It was no more divisive than TFA, which got plenty of heat.

    Box Office drops perfectly in line with the normal drops.

    Everything, except one site which was trolled, points out to a nominal reception by the fans.
     
  17. Oissan

    Oissan Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    I have to disagree there. The word divisive on its own doesn't say what the divide was. And yes, I think it is pretty fair to say that TLJ was a whole lot more divisive than TFA. That's hardly surprising though, because TLJ went out and tried things, while TFA took the safe approach to not upset anyone. There was a bit of heat over the story not being particularly creative, but in general terms there wasn't much of a noticeable backlash against TFA. TLJ does have quite a few people who are unhappy about it, which by default makes it divisive.

    And yes, people who complain are usually the loudest, thus often making their numbers appear bigger than they really are. And yes, the internet does not reflect the general population at all. But still, one cannot ignore that there is a sizeable group of people who are unhappy with it. Which in turns makes the movie divisive. Doesn't mean that the people who dislike it are anywhere near a majority, but you can't exactly pretend that they don't exist.


    Beyond that, I really would like to see people return to what this topic is actually about: box office numbers. They might not be all that interesting at this point anymore, but it still is what this topic is about. It's neither the 'I try and force my negative opinion into every topic I can find, regardless of whether it belongs there or not' thread, nor the 'I defend the movie against that' one.
     
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  18. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Right now it may seem like that, but on the glory days of TFA bashing, we even had the Cave thread in addition to the Complaints thread, and the total amount of posts there was greater than the sum of all posts in all other threads.

    TFA is being vindicated as time goes by, and I expect the same to happen to TLJ.

    Box Office right now is just that slow craw to the final numbers, which are predicted to be around 620m DOM.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  19. castlecrasher2

    castlecrasher2 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 31, 2018
    TLJ was divisive, though, far more than TFA ever was. Even the poll here put 50% of respondents as rating it above average (4 or 5) and 50% as less than that. Diving deeper, let's compare TLJ's results with TFA's:

    Rating, TFA, TLJ
    5 - 43.2%, 30.6%
    4 - 36.1%, 18.8%
    3 - 9.9%, 11.8%
    2 - 4.7%, 16.2%
    1 - 6.1%, 23.2% (13.2% were 0)

    I find 0 to be an unnecessary hate-vote option so I've lumped them in with the 1s. How can this be explained as anything but "TLJ was, on-average, rated more divisively than TFA by this forum's users"? This site isn't alone in similar comparisons, either.
    Hard to say what's "normal" here but I wouldn't say that TLJ's performance outside the stellar opening weekend was impressive, considering the context. Sure it's high up on the all-time list but I firmly believe that if it had been better it would have been well-received and given it strong legs like Rogue One had. It also wouldn't be limping slowly to $620m domestic.

    In fact, if there's a narrative being formed, it's "haters think TLJ was a financial failure," and nothing could be further from the truth. We just think it could have earned more.
    What is this "everything" and which site was trolled? If you're referring to Rotten Tomatoes, then 1) a Twitter interview with the individual who claimed to know the person who did it isn't exactly proof that it was a troll group, 2) Rotten Tomatoes is either lying or incompetent when they said it wasn't illegitimate votes, and 3) RT isn't the only fan voter site that shows much worse user reviews for TLJ vs TFA. Metacritic, IMDB, this forum, even, show that TLJ was divisive among voters. You can hand wave this away with "oh that's because hater fans get really mad and actually vote" but that's the point, isn't it? The film was divisive enough that this reaction happened, and didn't with TFA or R1.
     
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  20. DominusNovus

    DominusNovus Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    It is a completely neutral word. I'll use it in this context, just as I use it to describe myself, when I'm defending something.

    That said, I don't mind being called a hater.
     
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  21. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    TFA did not nearly have close to the audience divide that TLJ did. And ultimately it is not going to really matter long term since were getting a SW film every year now. Ten years from now people will barely remember either one. Just going to bury everyone with content. Again it’s not a bad thing at all, just different.

    I didn’t realize this but Fifty Shades Freed is coming out this weekend. They are expecting only a $35-40 OW which when you compare it with the first one that came out in 2015 which made $85 million it’s OW, that is just an insane drop. Still though the budget on these are very small relatively speaking ($55 million) so even if it’s the least successful one at the box office, it will make a nice profit in the end. Meanwhile Black Panther looks to be just a juggernaut next weekend.

    Going to be a interesting time at the box office over the next two months. It used to be a quiet period but no more. We have upcoming films like Black Panther, Wrinkle in Time, Ready Player One etc which are all massive releases though I think Wrinkle in Time overall is really going to be a dud. Watch this it’s this year’s B&TB LOL!

    Personally I will see Black Panther and Ready Player One since I read the book for RPO and absolutely love it. Just wish it came out a week earlier so I can see it over Spring Break easier. Coming out March 30th, I really only have that Friday to go see it though I think the boys can handle it so at least I have that excuse. I also want to see Red Sparrow since I am about halfway through the book and it’s outstanding. That will be one I can sneak off on my own to watch over SB for sure.
     
  22. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Our internal polls are not a parameter for anything.

    You are mentioning sample sizes which are completely irrelevant for the millions of persons who watched TLJ worldwide.

    So what that 150 persons in here chose to vote 1/10? Statistically, to use this site's polls for anything is completely irrelevant. Even the 10/10s.

    It is very easy to say what the expected drops for Star Wars are.

    A normal drop is from 30% to 33%, and TLJ will end up right in this range.

    So, completely normal drops, and since money is always is followed by real world persons, then TLJ was received as well as a regular second episode in a Star Wars trilogy can expect to be received.

    Everything is Cinemascore, IMDB and all critics. The site which was trolled was RT. And now the same group was going to troll Black Panther as well.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  23. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    The first-run drop between IV and V was 18% according to this [1, 2] without the numerous re-releases. So no, this drop of almost 34% between VII and VIII is not typical for SW. SW also doesn't exist in this vacuum where it shouldn't be compared to other movie sequels in the industry either. And the backlash of divisive user scores happened globally.
     
  24. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    STOP with these fake numbers, please !
    We already told you that these numbers are completely bogus.

    The first release of IV and V extended for much longer than current movies.
    Your article from 1978 which lists 221m is proof of that, as ANH ended its first run with 307m. And the first run of ANH lasted for years beyond 1978.

    These are the official numbers. They are not up for discussion, nor opinion. They are the facts.

    Rank Title (click to view) Studio Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Date
    1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $936,662,225 4,134 $247,966,675 4,134 12/18/15
    2 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $614,351,780 4,232 $220,009,584 4,232 12/15/17
    3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $532,177,324 4,157 $155,081,681 4,157 12/16/16
    4 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $431,088,295 3,126 $64,820,970 2,970 5/19/99
    5 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $380,270,577 3,663 $108,435,841 3,661 5/19/05
    6 Star Wars Fox $307,263,857 1,750 $1,554,475 43 5/25/77
    7 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $302,191,252 3,161 $80,027,814 3,161 5/16/02
    8 Return of the Jedi Fox $252,583,617 1,764 $23,019,618 1,002 5/25/83
    9 The Empire Strikes Back Fox $209,398,025 1,278 $4,910,483 126 5/21/80
    10 Star Wars (Special Edition)
    (Re-release) Fox $138,257,865 2,375 $35,906,661 2,104 1/31/97
    11 The Empire Strikes Back (Special Edition)
    (Re-release) Fox $67,597,694 2,322 $21,975,993 2,111 2/21/97
    12 Return of the Jedi (Special Edition)
    (Re-release) Fox $45,470,437 2,111 $16,293,531 2,111 3/14/97
    13 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D)
    (Re-release) Fox $43,456,382 2,655 $22,469,932 2,655 2/10/12
    14 Star Wars: The Clone Wars WB $35,161,554 3,452 $14,611,273 3,452 8/15/08
    15 Star Wars (Re-issue)
    (Re-release) Fox $15,476,285 1,070 $3,766,803 1,070 8/13/82
    16 The Empire Strikes Back (Re-issue)
    (Re-release) Fox $13,276,241 1,006 $3,949,478 992 11/19/82
    17 Return of the Jedi (Re-issue)
    (Re-release) Fox $11,252,123 894 $3,209,056 849 3/29/85
    18 Attack of the Clones: The IMAX Experience (IMAX)
    (Re-release) Fox $8,485,488 58 $1,435,259 58 11/1/02

    So, original releases only, ANH made 307m and TESB made 209m, a 32% drop.

    TPM to AOTC, from 431m to 302m, a 30% drop.

    TFA to TLJ will end up about 33% drop. There is no way to say it is not in line with the default drop range for Star Wars.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  25. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    They aren't bogus, BOM counts years and years of re-releases as one release. They do the same to other movies like Gone With The Wind: Re-releases across 50 years counted as one run by that website before 1989.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
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