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Discussion TLJ The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Sequel Trilogy (Released Films)' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

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How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.3%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.9%
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  1. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Btw. We now have 3 active box office threads. Just saying. Coordination required.
     
  2. castlecrasher2

    castlecrasher2 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 31, 2018
    Wow that's crazy! I thought TLJ had under performed by at least a couple hundred million! If only I had listened to you guys and-

    Oh.
     
  3. chris hayes

    chris hayes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2012
    Star Wars:
    Episode I - The Phantom Menace
    Worldwide: $1,027,044,677

    Star Wars:
    Episode II - Attack of the Clones
    Worldwide:
    $649,398,328

    Drop 36.8%

    The TLJ drop of 34% to TFA is actually better than the previous middle chapter Star Wars drops ( TESB dropped 37% )

    Funny how we have 429 pages of discussion to point out TLJ is preforming exactly to history.......
     
  4. All_Powerful_Jedi

    All_Powerful_Jedi Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 12, 2003
    TLJ did well, but I do think there was some money left on the table, and the Chinese release has to be considered a huge disappointment.

    It made the money it needed to make, but probably not the money it could’ve. But, really, I only think there’s warning signs if they plan on making an Episode 10 down the road, which they probably will in 10-or-so years if there’s even a market for it.

    Star Wars has an interesting future, that’s for sure. It’s just not one directly tied to the original series.
     
    2Cleva and Luke02 like this.
  5. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    I wonder why Disney is moving ahead with so many new Star Wars projects ( Solo, RJ Trilogy, Obi Wan, GOT creators probably KOTOR series, new TV series) when Star Wars is in decline both artistically and economically.....;)
     
    AndyLGR, Dr_Cthulhu and Lee_ like this.
  6. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    To make this all simpler, since we could not agree on what is considered first release or not, I just added up everything, from all re-releases, including the 1997 Special Editions.

    This gives us the current picture of how much money both movies made, and since they were released very close to each other in terms of inflation, and the 1997 releases happened in the same year, it is a fair comparison.

    This is how we get a drop of 37% from ANH to TESB, even higher than what we will get from TFA to TLJ.
     
    chris hayes likes this.
  7. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    I dont care about the drop! Stop it. Its not worth it.

    Sorry @Ricardo Funes u know i appreciate your posting :)
     
    yassir.khan and Ricardo Funes like this.
  8. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    No no no, this is supposed to be bad for Disney ! :)

    How dare they have a great 4th quarter fueled by TLJ and federal tax cuts !

    Just kidding, this was a great link, thanks !

    Adjusting for the tax windfall and other one-time items, earnings rose 22% from the year-ago quarter to $1.89 per share, well above the analysts’ consensus per FactSet of $1.61 per share.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
    Dr_Cthulhu, Lee_ and Othini like this.
  9. jaqen

    jaqen Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 22, 2004
    That's not possible. The Last Jedi was a near flop that put the entire franchise's future on the line. There's no way it contributed to pushing Disney beyond expectations.

    The announcement of yet another series of Star Wars films was obviously a mistake that they'll pay dearly for too.
     
  10. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    Star Wars is doomed. Multiple movie series set to start being worked on in the next couple years. Multiple tv series set to be worked on in the next couple years. They are so running out of ideas and the train is slowing down to a crawl.

    Disney must be the worst business people of all time to announce a whole brand new set of movies(on top of the one RJ is already doing) after TLJ was as big of a box office disappointment as it was.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
    Lost_Hope, Satipo, Dr_Cthulhu and 6 others like this.
  11. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    It's box office poison but it's streaming service gold.
     
    BigAl6ft6 likes this.
  12. relapse5127

    relapse5127 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Dec 16, 2015
    Disney are just simply making hay while the sun shines by trying to milk every drop they can out of their investment.

    The irony is that your comment about Star Wars being doomed is most probably on the money if Disney keep saturating the fandom with movies every five minutes.
     
  13. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    You can believe what you want.
     
    Ricardo Funes likes this.
  14. castlecrasher2

    castlecrasher2 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 31, 2018
    If anything, Disney's proven that oversaturation basically isn't a thing with the Marvel universe.
     
    BigAl6ft6 and Ricardo Funes like this.
  15. TheFastJedi

    TheFastJedi Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Dec 23, 2017
    I agree completely, context matters.

    These other movie sequels you reference, were they also following the number 1 movie at the North American box office of all time? You are comparing franchises where films were making a couple hundred million dollars, to the drop from TFA at nearly a Billion dollars. A movie that goes that much larger than anything that has come before it is naturally going to be a different story than a franchise that hovers around much smaller figures ("smaller" relative to Star Wars, that is).

    Star Wars is unique compared to other "sequels", in that over decades, it has had three trilogies, and in each case (either to start the series or after a long break), the first movie of the trilogy had an incredibly large box office take for its time. There is a reason the box office trend within the Star Wars trilogies is what it is (and has been so consistent over 3 trilogies), and why it is different than some other franchises that open up at a much different box office level.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
    jaqen and Ricardo Funes like this.
  16. Lee_

    Lee_ Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 3, 2012
    It actually isn't a neutral word, but an inflammatory one in this context. As far as your technical definition, I would have to be defending a controversial or disputed idea, which outside of a quite small group, this movie was not; most people don't even have enough emotion behind a SW movie to call it "controversial," aside from the (again) small groups like the Alt right that hate the cast diversity. I suppose you could call it controversial on SW websites like this, but (again) they are a miniscule portion of the population. I'm glad you identify and embrace your role as a hater.

    In any case guys, how about the GOT screenwriters making ANOTHER new SW series of movies (aside from Rian's, the ST, Anthology, etc), unrelated to the saga!!!! Yeah!!!! The SW news just keeps gettin' better. Can't wait for the TV show!
     
  17. Lee_

    Lee_ Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 3, 2012
    Any particular reason for stating this other than basic speculation? Just curious if this has been brought up by any of those involved..
     
  18. Samuel Vimes

    Samuel Vimes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 4, 2012
    According to the-numbers.com, by April of 1978, Star Wars was on just about 100 screens and had made 215 M thus far.
    Three months later, if was in over 1500 screens.
    The-numbers calls this a second release.

    In August of 1979, Star Wars had made 236 M. So the 307 M figure for the first 18 months does not fit with these numbers.

    If you want to compare, let's take the BO for the first 13 weeks for each film.
    Star Wars: 113 M
    ESB: 146 M
    RotJ: 223 M.

    TPM: 415 M
    AotC: 298 M
    RotS: 378 M

    TFA: 930 M
    TLJ: 614 M.
    Source, the-numbers.com

    Comments, first TLJ has not been in theaters for 13 weeks so the figure is current gross.
    Second, it is pretty clear that the PT and ST figures are pretty close to the final gross but the OT figures are not.
    So I think that comparing the ST with the PT, that is fine, the circumstances are not that dissimilar.
    The OT? Far too many other factors cloud the issue and makes comparisons difficult.

    Quick comment, this include the 3D re-release that TPM had but AotC did not have that.
    So the comparison is not totally fair.
    TPM made about 100 M in total from that so more correctly, the drop goes from.
    TPM: 924 M.
    AotC: 641 M. I subtracted the IMAX re-release gross to be fair.
    Now the drop is 30, 6 %

    Also, since this is the WW gross, to be totally accurate, you should also factor in variations in exchange rate.
    And the exchange rate was more unfavorable for AotC than it was for TPM.
    So factoring in that would make the drop even smaller.

    First, ep IX has not been released yet so if it will follow the trend of making more than TLJ but less than TFA remains to be seen.
    Second, TPM made about 430 M in 1999.
    Spiderman made 404 M in 2002.
    Yet the drop to the sequel Spiderman 2 was far smaller than the drop from TPM to AotC.
    Why is that?

    Third, TFA is the big outlier, at least in the last 30 years. No other film has come close.
    The PT films were big but other films were as big or bigger.

    Fourth, if this is a trend, the second film makes the least, why is that?
    If one looks at other factors such as reviews, then there is a bit of a difference between TPM/AotC and TFA/TLJ.
    Reviews from critics were more mixed for the two PT films and audience reaction was also mixed.
    TFA had very good reviews and quite positive audience figures.
    TLJ still had great reviews but more mixed audience response.
    Yet the drop is the same.
    Again why?

    Other series has shown that even with big films, that make 3-400 M, the drop can be smaller or there can even be an increase. What makes SW different?

    In closing, TLJ did not do badly by any stretch.
    And I think one can compare it with the PT but comparing it to the OT is more dicey as the number of other factors is larger.

    Bye for now.
    Old Stoneface
     
    chris hayes, mlsw and bluealien1 like this.
  19. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    You aren't seriously trying to claim that 404m in 2002 are in the same vicinity as 430m in 1999, are you?
    There's a pretty huge gap between the two. TPM was basically the same size as ESB and ROTJ (with re-releases!) and sold more admissions than Avatar. Spiderman, on the other hand, is more like Independence Day.

    There has been no gigantic movie that saw the sequel not drop in a big way. We have been over this again and again and again. Ignoring that doesn't somehow make it go away. Comparing movies of that size to movies that are basically half the size or worse makes no sense whatsoever. Of course it is easier to hold more of the audience, or even increase to some extent, if you are coming from a much smaller movie. Something in the 200 or 300m range hasn't topped out yet (at least it doesn't have to be). Something that goes beyond 400m usually has. Though that number is obviously growing with time as well, due to increasing ticket prices.

    Beyond that, claiming that TFA is the huge outlier of the last 30 years and that "no other film has come close" is flat out wrong. Titanic is the big outlier of the last 30 years, it very well may have been the biggest original run of the modern era, if not alltime. While TFA certainly is ahead of TPM, the difference is also a whole lot smaller than you think. 16 years of ticket price growth, the existance of 3D and IMAX, all of that makes the difference between TFA and TPM appear way bigger than it actually is. In terms of estimated tickets sold, the two aren't that far apart. TPM is in fact ahead of the next biggest movies of the recent past (Avatar, TDK) by about the same amount of tickets as it is behind TFA.
     
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  20. Marathonjedi77

    Marathonjedi77 Jedi Knight star 1

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2012
    I think I found the perfect song for the current state of all the haters....This is directed at a group mindset not anyone individual.
    P.S. The box office has become comfortably numb 620?

     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  21. Samuel Vimes

    Samuel Vimes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 4, 2012
    It is a difference of about 30 M and only three years apart.
    I don't think that is a huge gap.
    Or take the first Harry Potter, WW it made 975 M, more than TPM.
    The drop to the sequel was about 10 %, again WW.

    Spiderman was not half the size of TPM, not even close.
    Neither were the HP films or the LotR films WW.
    Or take the Dark Knight, that made over 500 M.
    The sequel dropped but that drop was about 15%, a little over 20 % when adjusted for inflation.
    And WW, there was no drop at all and both films passed a billion.

    [/QUOTE]

    I was only talking about the SW films in terms of outlier.
    The quote I was responding to talked about a film being the no 1 at the domestic BO of all time.
    TPM was not no 1 of all time as it didn't beat Titanic.
    And just a few years later, Spiderman made over 400 M, as did Shrek 2.
    TFA is no 1 all time domestic, not adjusted of course.
    And thus far, no other film has made over 800 M, never mind 900 M.
    It has only been two years sure and while a film will likely beat it at some point, I think it will take a few more years.

    WW, TPM was also not no 1 off all time and two years later Harry Potter beat it WW.

    My point was that TFA made a somewhat bigger splash than TPM, though TPM was and is certainly very big.
    And while the drop from TFA to TLJ is about as big in % as AotC, TLJ still managed to be no 1 domestic and WW, something that AotC did not manage.

    With the PT films, there were other series that were comparable in size that did not drop as much or actually increased.
    TFA and TLJ is a bit different as TFA was quite a bit bigger than most other films.
    So TLJ drop is not strange or signs of Doomsday.

    Bye for now.
    Old Stoneface
     
  22. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Just speculation based on Bob Iger`s comment. The GOT guys probably pitched an idea about making Star Wars film / films about a certain time period. Then you start thinking about medieval or ancient periods of course, based on their GOT background. Though KOTOR did not have a look of a more ancient and primitive time at all really. Probably the only thing that makes sense now is that the GOT team and Rian will not tell stories from the same time period. Time will tell. In terms of box office, we all know now that Disney will invest a lot of money into new Star Wars films and expect to have a healthy income for years. They will at the same time "own" the market with lots of Marvel films, Pixar and Disney toon live action remakes. And Avatar.
     
    Lee_ likes this.
  23. TheFastJedi

    TheFastJedi Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Dec 23, 2017
    You were responding to this:

    "These other movie sequels you reference, were they also following the number 1 movie at the North American box office of all time? You are comparing franchises where films were making a couple hundred million dollars, to the drop from TFA at nearly a Billion dollars."

    I think that statement is pretty clear that it is regarding TFA (since it is explicitly stated).

    After identifying TFA as number 1 of the domestic box office, it also went on more generally to say that ".....in each case (either to start the series or after a long break), the first movie of the trilogy had an incredibly large box office take for its time."

    The first movie in the trilogy doesn't have to be number 1 of all time for the above statement to be true.

    Additionally, all of this was responding to posts about the performance of TLJ at the North American box office (compared to other specifically listed and referenced sequels at the North American box office), so not sure why you are changing the subject to WW/other movies mid-stream. The posts were regarding the box office performance of specific sequels at the domestic box office (and why Star Wars behaves how it does, and why it may not be the same as the franchises it was being compared against). Comparing TLJ, which is following a movie (TFA) at nearly a Billion dollars, to a franchise making (as an example), $200M per film is not apples to apples.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  24. castlecrasher2

    castlecrasher2 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 31, 2018
    Sounds like comparisons of total box office using sequels from other franchises, or even sequels from within trilogies of the same franchise, are weak evidence for determining what a normal drop off is for a sequel.
     
  25. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Padawan star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    In France critics of BP says its an ok movie no more just an other marvel. I think BP get better review than it's should have in america cause of the full Black cast. I will judge by myself in 1 week
     
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