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Discussion TLJ The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Sequel Trilogy (Released Films)' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

?

How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.3%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.9%
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  1. Samuel Vimes

    Samuel Vimes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 4, 2012
    The overall argument seemed to be that Star Wars can't be compared to other series because it is so much bigger than them.
    I mentioned that TFA was an outlier but the rest of the SW films made since the 90's, there are other series that are of comparable size.

    Also people have been comparing TLJ's drop to that of AotC and saying that this is how SW films behave.
    Why?
    Is there some rule?
    Examples have been given of other series that were about as big as the PT but that did not have as big drops or even increases.

    And another post I was responding to was comparing the WW gross of TPM and AotC and looking at the drop. So it is not like WW BO has not been talked about here.

    And you mention comparing with films making 200 M. Really?
    The first Spiderman is over 600 M adjusted for inflation and add 3D and IMAX tickets to that and the gross would be over 700 M.
    All three LotR films are over 500 M domestic, adjusted, and again, no 3D or IMAX.
    Dark Knight is over 680 M adjusted, again no 3D or IMAX.

    Those are more apt comparisons.

    In closing, I am not saying that TLJ's drop is bad or anything or the sort.
    I just don't agree with the idea that Star Wars can't be compared with other series.
    At least SW from 1999 and onwards.

    Bye for now.
    Blackboard Monitor
     
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  2. Nipuhanipera

    Nipuhanipera Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 25, 2014
    Nobody claims that it didn't contribute to Disney's quarterly earnings. But it doesn't mean that the movie itself made as much as was expected of it. Keep in mind that there was also a big tax boost.
     
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  3. yassir.khan

    yassir.khan Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 27, 2014
    Black Panther with 100% so far with 67 reviews. Woo!

    Can not wait to watch this.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  4. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    "Adjusting for the tax windfall and other one-time items, earnings rose 22% from the year-ago quarter to $1.89 per share, well above the analysts’ consensus per FactSet of $1.61 per share."

    The analysts expected $1.61 and got $1.89, and since the biggest money-maker of the 4th quarter for Disney was TLJ... well, it is easy to infer that it performed above expectations.
     
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  5. Guidman

    Guidman Host, PT Book Club star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 29, 2016
    It wasn't TLJ alone that caused Disney to beat the EPS estimates. The studio division actually missed the earnings estimate of $2.75B vs. $2.50B actual. The parks division would be more responsible for the earnings than the studio division.
     
    Luke02 likes this.
  6. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    100% RT score for BP ties with Paddington 2:)

    I am sure there will be someone who delivers a bad review at some point though.
    BP has extreme buzz and it might go as high as $ 150 mill for OW according to some optimistic predictions. If so, should have good legs, competition is not that strong for February. The Winter Olympics could prevent ( or in best case delay) some good business in certain markets - for the 1st week. Like Jumanji, less than stellar China / Asian numbers could prevent it going much higher than $ 800 mill WW. Though South Korea should be strong as the film was shot there. South America will be big too i figure.

    I have to go watch the movie now. That sort of buzz and reviews certainly build up very high expectations.
    Going through some of the early reviews, its seems everyone is praising acting, world building and story. CGI and action a bit underwhelming. For a movie with this sort of reactions from the critics, i do expect something special - especially in this category.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
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  7. Luke02

    Luke02 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    @Guidman

    But as I stated before, the movies act like a commercial for the merchandises and theme parks. SW is going strong but there isn’t the OMG it’s back fever of 2015 going on either right now. I do think the theme parks will get a boost once the SW section opens much like Universal got a boost from the HP section when it open which btw I read is still going strong despite the last true HP movie has not come out for several years. Therefore you can expect the ninth HP movie to come out sooner then later.

    And I am very excited for Black Panther. I think Marvel is in for a monster year. And Cable finally made his debut for Deathpool 2. Looks awesome!
     
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  8. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Not into Deadpool really, but i admit that trailer looked pretty cool and should be a challenge for the Solo opening. Could some Marvel fan tell me why Josh Brolin is playing both Cable and Thanos? @Luke02 ?
    I know its not strange for an actor to play more than one character, even in the same movie, but this is a bit weird, playing two villains in the same cinematic universe, no?
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
  9. Luke02

    Luke02 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    @Othini

    Yeah it is a bit strange but keep in mind when Josh signed out to play Cable, they were not in the same cinematic universe and will not be for some time since the Fox Studio and Disney deal will take sometime. By then Thanos will most likely be gone so it will never be were literally you had the same actor playing two characters in literally the same universe but it is confusing.
     
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  10. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Nope, you are not mentioning the full picture. Here it is:

    Christine McCarthy -- Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
    "
    At the Studio, first quarter results were modestly lower compared to last year as growth in theatrical distribution was offset by lower operating income in our home entertainment and television distribution businesses. Our theatrical business had another solid quarter due to the strong performances of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Thor: Ragnarok, and Coco. Star Wars: The Last Jedi is our third Star Wars film, and through today these three films have collectively generated over $4.4 billion in global box office.

    Lower home entertainment operating income reflects lower unit sales driven by the strong performance of Finding Dory last year compared to Cars 3 in Q1 this year. Lower television distribution results were primarily due to a decrease in paid television, driven by the domestic availability of two key titles in Q1 last year, Captain America: Civil War and Jungle Book, compared to one key title, Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2, in Q1 this year.
    "

    http://host.madison.com/business/in...cle_e886a6e3-1cb0-5271-8f75-198e49deefe8.html

    I guess I missed the part where Disney's CFO did all that crying and banging head on wall after such obvious Box Office failure that TLJ was. [face_laugh]
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
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  11. DominusNovus

    DominusNovus Jedi Knight star 2

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    Again, you want to read it in an inflammatory way, read it as 'defender' if it makes you feel better. I don't type it in an inflammatory way.

    That said, the idea that the movie is not controversial or divisive is just attempting to reframe the discussion, and is outside the bounds of the box office discussion, so I'll just let time make my argument for me.
     
  12. jaqen

    jaqen Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 22, 2004
    ANH, TPM and TFA were cultural milestones. They attracted not just diehards, and causal fans, but regular old movie goers caught up in the hype, people who ordinarily might not even be attracted to these kinds of films.

    There's this prevailing myth among Star Wars fans that if somebody pays for a SW film, it means they almost have to watch the follow up. And the only reason they wouldn't is because the follow up is bad/controversial.

    Nope. There are millions of people who've literally only popped in for an episode, or two, and were perfectly content to not see the follow ups. And some of these people like the episodes they watched just fine.

    That happened with the OT, the PT and now the ST. The opening episodes of Star Wars all have very unique, extremely difficult to replicate, circumstances. And their wildly popular direct follow ups just aren't able to replicate the fervor. Regardless of the quality of the content.
     
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  13. Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid

    Jedi_Sith_Smuggler_Droid Jedi Knight star 3

    Registered:
    Mar 13, 2014
    So true. And then as years pass the wildly popular direct follow ups reframe how we see the opening episdoe and help cement the way we as a culture see those movies as trilogy and as a series.

    I'm not sure how much actual real world descent there is for The Last Jedi but it might not matter one way or the other. What is happening for sure, positive or negative, nearly two months after Episode 8 premiered, people are still passionately talking about it. I think that bodes well for Episode 9 and for the future relevance of this newest trilogy as a whole.
     
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  14. Darth Chiznuk

    Darth Chiznuk Superninja of New Films star 6 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    Oct 31, 2012
    We have just posted a new rules and policy thread. Everyone should take a look:
    http://boards.theforce.net/threads/...es-and-policies-thread-2018-edition.50048371/

    This part in particular:

    This forum is a place for discussing the films, which means that you think the films are worth discussing. It is not a forum for discussing how much the films are not worth discussing and/or how the actions of Disney, Lucasfilm, etc. have resulted in films not worth discussing--we have a zero tolerance policy towards posts and posters dragging conversation down to that level.

    Make no mistake from here on out the staff here will be vigilant and absolutely unforgiving in its enforcement of this rule. Above all else these forums are meant to be a fun place to discuss Star Wars but for far too long they've been little more than a cesspool. No more. If you want to rant endlessly about how awful the films were or if you refuse to here any kind of criticism about them I only have one thing to say... go get your own blog and post there. If you wish to engage in constructive conversation that remain respectful of one another then please stay here. There is no middle ground. This is how it's going to be. To paraphrase a certain campaign slogan... We're Gonna Make the Forums Fun Again!
     
  15. Lee_

    Lee_ Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 3, 2012
    Well, I wasn't the only one who commented on your use, so perhaps you should look at how you phrase things. It's not just me.

    I have no idea what discussion you are talking about reframing. Outside the (small) world of SW fans, no one cares. Donald Trump is controversial, gay conversion therapy is controversial, TLJ is NOT controversial, you see?

    Yes, the future could settle the argument if SW Box Office takes a massive nose dive from here on out, and becomes an average series, and all because of the catastrophic effects of how horrible TLJ is. Otherwise, it will just move on and be a hugely successful series at the box office as well as with critics and the general public. Which is more likely? I'm going to say scenario #2 by a long shot.
     
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  16. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Star Wars, with the new announcement of the new series, and the conf call with Bob Iger where he more or less made clear that this new series is important for their new streaming service, will become Marvel 2.0

    Meaning, a lot of big movies, >700m WW Box Office each one, with some sporadic monster hits.

    There has never been a better time to be a Star Wars fan.

    We have announced, so far, Solo, +3 movies for Rian, + a series, + possibly Kenobi, + IX

    We are talking at least 8 movies, possibly 10 or even more.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2018
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  17. Nipuhanipera

    Nipuhanipera Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 25, 2014
    Exactly. Disney is a giant company. I don't think anyone on this earth expected TLJ to earn less than 1.3 billion.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  18. Luke02

    Luke02 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    @Ricardo Funes

    Will see if all those get made. While I been arguing since Day 1 that SW was going to get “Marvelized” I am not sure if they are going to keep up the pace of 1 SW movie a year especially now that they are about to gain a bunch of properties most notably Avatar and the X-Men. They might want to slow down the pace a bit starting next decade (maybe a SW film every 1 1/2 years) as one would assume by 2020 they will have Avatar and X-Men on board therefore they will want to push those and get them fully invested under the Disney ever growing umbrella.

    And I think Obi-Wan anthology film is now buried. If they were going to do it, we already gotten an announcement since 2020 is the perfect time to release it. Be a perfectly ending to Phase 1 of their SW rollout with the ST and three anthology movies that focus on the gap between the PT & OT. But Disney is already stacked with movies for 2020 (Indy 5 & Avatar 2 being a couple of the big ones) so I think either 2020 will be a rest year or it will be the start of Rian’s trilogy since I assume he is farther ahead in the creative process then Weinoff/Weiss though who knows and quite frankly I be shocked if either of them had a film ready for 2020. So my guess is that will be a off year for SW films but perhaps the SW TV Show is debut on Disney’s streaming service.
     
  19. Othini

    Othini Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Disney will just push for more power further and further in the coming future. I know they are about to acquire Fox, but i would not count out they are behind the Deadpool 2 opening weekend move - as it will not have a IMAX run, because Disney do have both Infinity War and Solo lined up for that format.

    This weekend, the weekend before Black Panther sort of, Clint Eastwoods new Paris terror movie actually has a lower RT score than the 3rd and last Fifty Shades movie. Thats something.
    EDIT. Damn, i was wrong, actually now Fifty Shades Freed are down to 6%....Clint at 13%.

    I am getting ready to move on to the Solo thread, i see there are some action already......

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  20. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    For quite a long time in this thread, we were speculating if Disney was pleased (or not) with the Box Office of TLJ.

    The words of Disney's CFO during the shareholders meeting finally put that question to rest.

    This is important to point out, as we spent pages and pages talking about this, and now we have a definite answer.

    Disney's theatrical business had, according to her words, a strong 4th quarter, which means it has at least met their expectations.

    Their Studio business was down only because of lower home entertainment and TV earnings.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  21. n8storm

    n8storm Jedi Master star 1

    Registered:
    May 24, 2005
    Unless a movie went totally into the toilet at the box office, you are never going to hear Disney not positively spin one of their movies.

    As far as future projects are concerned, I'd be surprised if every single one of them made it out of development. HBO is developing 5 or 6 Game of Thrones spinoff series, but likely only 1 will ever make it to air. Yes, Disney has more resources and mediums, but I'd still be surprised if every single one made it.

    Tuesday box office:
    STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI $279K
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
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  22. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    This was a shareholder meeting. Had it been a regular interview, I would understand.

    The shareholders are given the real deal. If you read the full contents of the meeting, Disney does not pull punches to talk about parts of their business that are underperforming.

    They are required to be honest, transparent, clear and precise to the shareholders.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
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  23. Nipuhanipera

    Nipuhanipera Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 25, 2014
    Unless they want to do multiple movies a year.
     
  24. All_Powerful_Jedi

    All_Powerful_Jedi Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 12, 2003
    As someone who follows WWE shareholder meetings on the reg, this is not entirely true. They regularly boast about the number of subscribers to their streaming service and neglect how many are paid subscribers a lot, or brush over it if the numbers are low. At shareholder meetings. Sure, there’s a negative thing or two to “keep it more real,” but there is spin, or at the very least, a spotlight held up to the good and a flashlight held up to the bad.

    Obviously, Disney is a completely different company and they run things in a much different (and successful) way, but just because it’s a shareholder meeting does not mean there isn’t any spin. Fortunately, Disney is a GIGANTIC company and has many facets in the way it makes money, so there’s plenty of things for shareholders to look at, both good and bad.
     
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  25. Luke02

    Luke02 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    @Nipuhanipera

    I don’t think Disney wants that, at least not yet.
     
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