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Discussion TLJ The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Star Wars: Sequel Trilogy (Released Films)' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

?

How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.3%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.9%
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  1. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Sure, Disney is another magniture compared to basically anything else in the industry.

    Also, these meetings have a quite long question and answer segment, and Disney's numbers are followed closely by the media. Not a good idea for them to make negative headlines by putting spin to the numbers and risking someone noticing.

    Of course, other companies did that in the past, but 99% of the times they were caught sooner or later.

    For the new streaming service, yes. For the theatrical market, I bet on one per year.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  2. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Padawan star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    Its getting closer to RO daily number, maybe it will catch it friday, RO had a ery poor firday with only a 60% increase
     
  3. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Rogue One Day 49: $349,590 Day 50: $781,497 Day 51: $1,593,071 Day 52: $548,311 Day 53: $258,265 Day 54: $305,035 Day 55: $249,072 Past 7 Day Total: $4,084,841
    The Last Jedi Day 49: $306,531 (-12.32%) Day 50: $611,248 (-21.78%) Day 51: $1,231,261 (-22.71%) Day 52: $495,733 (-9.59%) Day 53: $234,836 (-9.07%) Day 54: $279,012 (-8.53%) Day 55: $233,874 (-6.10%) Past 7 Day Total: $3,392,495 (-16.95%)

    TLJ 16.94915420208522% below RO past 7 days
    RO earned $6,732,561 after Day 55
    $6,732,561 - 16.94915420208522% = $5,591,449

    $615,202,744 + $5,591,449 = $620,794,193 if it does no better and no worse than past 7 days in same amount of upcoming remaining days at the box office

    RO will lose a lot of theaters tomorrow on Day 57 (Friday) like last Friday. The theater count is slowly reaching a sort of equilibrium between the two as the counts get so low.

    Theater losses
    TFA: 2,262 (Day 56) -> 1,810 (Day 57) (-19.98%)
    TLJ: 1,467 (Day 56) -> ??? (Day 57)
    RO: 1,613 (Day 56) -> 929 (Day 57) (-42.41%)

    TFA: 1,810 (Day 63) -> 1,618 (Day 64) (-10.61%)
    TFA: 1,618 (Day 70) -> 1,433 (Day 71) (-11.43%)
    RO: 929 (Day 63) -> 435 (Day 64) (-53.18%)
    RO: 435 (Day 70) -> 284 (Day 71) (-34.71%)
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
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  4. vong333

    vong333 Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 18, 2003
    TLJ has done better this week than I anticipated. Reached $615 million by Wednesday, thought it would reach it by Saturday.

    Reading Disney's report that it did good in the 4th quarter was good. As far as Star Wars becoming Marvel 2.0 you bet that was going to happen. The studio did not pay $4.045 billion dollars to come out with a GL style one movie every three years, and live off the merchandising. That's not how they are going to work. The streaming service along with the theme parks next year is going to be huge for them. RJ's trilogy and the new set of movies from the Game of Throne people is nothing short than amazing news but also consistent with KK announcement last year that this year we were going to get a direction with the way they wanted to go for Star Wars. We were in the dark as to what they were going to do after Episode 9. Bob Iger announcing multiple series for its streaming service is even better news. I hope they have more animation coming out with the already reported live action series. And Star wars is not going to be done or oversaturated by any stretch, with the three movies they have made so far, they have made in total some $4.4 billion dollars, between 2015-2017 are the number 1 movie in the domestic box office, and in the worldwide box office, number 1 in 2015 and 2017 and coming in at number 2 in 2016. Disney has nothing to feel bad or worried about anything, except in increasing revenue, and that they will.

    Like Ricardo Fumes said in his earlier post, its a great time to be a Star Wars fan. We are not going to get oversaturated, what we are getting now that we didn't get in the GL, Sue Rostoni, and Randy Stradley era are more movies, a soon to be released live action tv series, and more animation. Yes, we have comic books and novels, but if you notice the stories told are not big in any way. No Heir to the Empire type trilogy, Dark Empire, New Jedi Order, Legacy of the Force or Legacy type storylines. Those big important storylines are going to be for the movies, live action tv, and animation. Already some major stuff occurs in both TCW and Rebels tv animated series.
     
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  5. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Just by the sheer amount of new media, including streaming, "safer" movies like R1 and Solo (which are telling origin stories in a beloved era, with not many serious implications), and new movies (which will be more challenging), there will be something for everyone.

    I think TLJ will be dropped faster because of big movies opening like Panther.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2018
  6. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    I fully agree, if you're a true Star Wars fan -- not like a casual fan who could kind of take it or leave it (so I mean, those of us who post on forums like this are fans) -- this is going to be an incredible time to be a fan. I love every single one of the 9 Star Wars movies and consider them masterpieces, but not everyone is like that. For some, they are hit or miss, so if you're like that as a fan, this is something very exciting for you I'd say. If you were turned off by TLJ and have "lost interest" to some extent in Episode IX, you're going to have a chance to jump aboard a totally new series of Star Wars films with the Game of Thrones writers, or Rian Johnson's new trilogy. I think RJ is a very exciting filmmaker and even if someone doesn't like or agree with his choices for TLJ, I think you gotta give him a chance with his new trilogy.

    Not to use a personal anecdote, because it's a very unpopular minority opinion (I'm ok with that, I don't care lol), but I personally hated Arrival. I thought it was garbage. I didn't like the story, the characters, or the pacing. It was boring, it went absolutely nowhere, and it wasn't a "thinking man's" sci-fi movie, no. Blade Runner 2049 is a thinking man's sci-fi movie to me, not Arrival, which was like watching paint dry. But guess what? Same director. If I wrote him off for Arrival and avoided Blade Runner 2049, I would have missed what I think is one of the best movies in the last 10 years. To be frank, Blade Runner 2049 would make my all time top 50 movies. I absolutely love it.

    If neither of those new trilogies / film series are to your liking either, well, you may enjoy the live action TV series that Disney will launch instead. If you don't like any of it, then yeah, time to go be a Harry Potter fan I guess :p LOL, j/k, but the point is there is going to be a lot out there for fans to choose from and it'll be less important that you love every single movie. One will come out, you maybe didn't love it, life goes on, try again the next time.

    For someone like me, I'm immensely excited as they haven't missed yet for me, so I think it's going to be a lot of fun to watch and to follow how these movies do at the box office.

    I didn't realize TLJ was pulling a bit closer to Rogue One's daily grosses, that's actually a nice development then. I am thinking the same thing I thought weeks ago, that it looks like $620M.

    There is one X-Factor here that hasn't been considered and while I certainly don't want to suggest it's going to make a difference for sure, it's worth considering as this is the thread for it. When Rogue One and TFA left first run theaters, it was late March. I know because I was seeing these movies until the last day in theaters -- in fact the last screening. I was at the last screening for Rogue One and TFA at any first run theater in the Portland metro area and they both happened around the same time. Shockingly, Rogue One played a bit longer than TFA as it not only opened earlier but also closed later here. I saw both movies around the end of March, though, I think the 30th then for Rogue One. Why does this matter? Because TLJ won't make it to late March in first run theaters. Why does that matter? Easy, because Rogue One and TFA both came out on digital and home video within just days of leaving first run theaters. There was no "second run" basically before they were already out to purchase. TLJ will be gone from first run theaters entirely by the start of March basically, and that should leave it an additional several weeks of dollar theaters. That means you could see a larger discount theater bump than either Rogue One or TFA got at the end of the run. It may not matter much, but it could be good for $2 million or so.
     
  7. Oissan

    Oissan Force Ghost star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    Will be interesting to see how the big theater loss this weekend will impact things. Rogue One only increased by 60% on Friday, dropping 55% from Friday to Friday after going from 1,613 to 929 theaters. TLJ will drop from 1,467 to 830 theaters.

    In other news, Black Panther has ridiculous pre-sales at a certain theater chain. Comparisons are only given against other MCU movies, but there isn't really much competition between those. It could obviously be a case of the audience simply securing tickets early, but if not, the OW should be through the roof. Right now the movie has twice as many presales as Age of Ultron, three times as many as GotG2 and an even larger lead over Thor 3. And sales aren't frontloaded either. While previews are the largest part of the presales with 30% of the total, the percentage is smaller than for all the comparisons. Friday itself is comparable, while Saturday and Sunday take up more of the presales than for the others.
     
  8. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Padawan star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    TLJ thursday 233k in front of RO wich made 222k.
     
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  9. zackm

    zackm Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    A very interesting trend the last few days. Stayed almost perfectly flat from Wednesday to Thursday.
     
    Ricardo Funes likes this.
  10. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    [​IMG]

    Week 8 ended yesterday.

    Per theater average (weekly gross divided by theaters)
    Week 1: TFA $94,547 RO $53,404 TLJ $70,086 (TLJ = RO +31.24%, TFA -25.87%)
    Week 2: TFA $63,162 RO $36,897 TLJ $39,720 (TLJ = RO +7.65%, TFA -37.11%)
    Week 3: TFA $28,644 RO $19,226 TLJ $19,911 (TLJ = RO +3.56%, TFA -30.49%)
    Week 4: TFA $13,438 RO $7,166 TLJ $7,399 (TLJ = RO +3.25%, TFA -44.95%)
    Week 5: TFA $10,230 RO $6,348 TLJ $5,645 (TLJ = RO -11.07%, TFA -44.82%)
    Week 6: TFA $5,828 RO $3,750 TLJ $3,593 (TLJ = RO -4.19%, TFA -38.35%)
    Week 7: TFA $5,644 RO $3,311 TLJ $3,195 (TLJ = RO -3.50%, TFA -43.39%)
    Week 8: TFA $4,232 RO $2,453 TLJ $2,263 (TLJ = RO -7.75%, TFA -46.53%)
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  11. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    Ugh. Ouch. That theater drop really hurts, just when the film was stabilizing against Rogue One more too. Yeah expect a garbage Friday increase. Even worse as I mentioned elsewhere the theater count is deceiving because it’s even worse than it appears. In my area, 4 theaters next to me are all still playing it (which is good), but all 4 today at the same time, two different chains, moved the movie to 2 showings per day. So a half screen. That makes the drop even worse because I’m sure they’re not the only 4 in the country playing it on a half screen effective this weekend.
     
  12. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Padawan star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    just 8 more million for avengers...
     
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  13. zackm

    zackm Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Only has 6-6.5 left in the tank.

    Though, keep in mind that Avengers only did ~618 before getting a big theater expansion at the end of its run.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  14. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Rogue One earned $6,510,356 after Day 56
    The Avengers (total gross) - The Last Jedi (Day 56) = $7,921,631
    The Last Jedi would need to earn almost 22% more than Rogue One from today to the end of its run to pass The Avengers (with the Labor Day 'expansion').
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  15. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    Thankfully Disney is going to put The Last Jedi back in IMAX for one week only in early March with 20 minutes of deleted scenes and an introduction by Rian Johnson. LOL, j/k, that's about the only way I see it beating Avengers :p

    Ironically TLJ has tracked above Avengers the whole time pretty much, but as you noted Avengers went off tracking at $618M and then magically re-appeared with $623M, basically. I'm not sure how that happens, to be honest. I wonder if they'll do any of those double-feature screenings with TLJ and Black Panther and then try to fudge TLJ above Avengers. I mean, it could certainly happen. That's basically what Avengers did anyway.
     
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  16. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Aarrrgh, soooo close !

    Problem is that Disney is not known for pushing movies beyond their lifetimes only to make them reach a specific milestone.
     
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  17. chris hayes

    chris hayes Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2012
    Yeah Disney beating a Disney movie so probably not......
     
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  18. jamminjedi23

    jamminjedi23 Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Feb 19, 2015
    Yeah no point in trying to push a previous movie past a certain point. Better thing to do is move on to the next thing coming out. Honestly the difference between 620m and 624m means very little to a company like Disney. All it is is something for people like us to argue about.
     
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  19. I Are The Internets

    I Are The Internets Force Ghost star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 20, 2012
    I tried to spend 6 million on a movie ticket, but the ticket guy was like "no that's too much money sir, and did you borrow that from Warren Buffet? You ****ing idiot." I reported him to his manager, but the manager said the same thing. :(
     
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  20. n8storm

    n8storm Jedi Master star 1

    Registered:
    May 24, 2005
    Friday box office for Last Jedi: $302K

    comparative:
    Rogue One: $355,803
    Force Awakens: $1,188,588
     
  21. zackm

    zackm Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Weird Friday. Pretty much exactly where you would have expected it to be base on last Friday, but well below where you would have expected based on the last 2 days.
     
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  22. Bowen

    Bowen Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 6, 1999
    Feels like we got whacked by the mob or something. Plus 29% is horrible for a Friday. But that can you do, they cut the legs from the movie by such a huge theater loss. I was hoping for a more gradual decline than -600 theaters.
     
  23. Darth Luch

    Darth Luch Jedi Padawan star 3

    Registered:
    Dec 28, 2016
    Some king of revenger after what Disney asked to theater to play TLJ maybe
     
  24. Nipuhanipera

    Nipuhanipera Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    May 25, 2014
    I think it would have gone much better if you said you wanted to buy 600 000 tickets. ;)
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2018
  25. MagnarTheGreat

    MagnarTheGreat Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jul 21, 2016
    Which was this:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney...heaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603
     
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