ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

It would be extremely unlikely for Black Panther to not reach a multiplier of 2. Comic book movies are frontloaded, but not by that much. Monday is a holiday, so it will be at something like 215m already after just four days. The movie has a better chance of topping 500m than it has of not making it to 400m. Judging from presales, it sounded like opening weekend would be backloaded. That's obviously just one small part of the equation, but I wouldn't assume that interest is suddenly going to drop.


TLJ is a tiny bit behind Rogue One on Friday. Will be interesting to see how the weekend goes.

 

We will see saturday gross for BP, it will be interesting.

 

Why do people think BP will be weak internationally? Most Marvel movies do very well abroad.

Also if BP does do circa 200 mil and then make about 450-500 domestic will people call it a disappointment? I ask because people are suggesting already the multiplier will be low.


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$187 mlllion being reported for the likely 3-day opening. $400 million will be very easily and rather quickly taken with such good WOM (probably it's third week now). Yes, $500 million is certainly STRONGLY probable. Why not? It's got all the working parts.

Will it beat BatB?

 

Agreed.

My point is would 500 be a disappointment after that opening? Because 600 plus is for Last Jedi. And the argument has been after such an opening it should have done more. Ergo should BP not do more than 500?


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Less than $500 million wouldn't really be a HUGE disappointment. Until recently I never thought the movie would come to $300 million. But upper $200's would have been really GREAT. However...

If my memory serves me correctly, only DoJ: BvS had a multiplier under 2.0X for superhero movies and we all know why. Less than 2.5X is going to be VERY low for BP. The WOM is just TOO strong at the opening. 2.5-2.7 is more reasonable. It just doesn't have any real competition until IW. Wrinkle in Time? nah...not really comp.

 

I definitely agree. Just putting the reaction to TLJ box office in perspective


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Last Jedi Friday estimate: $134,000
Comparative-
Rogue One: $177,317
Force Awaken: $917,914

 

TFA made $918 million on Friday THIS far out!? Wow!!!

 

918K not 918M. Still impressive, though.

 

looks like BP's four-day will come within spitting distance of TLJ's three-day opening weekend.

 

Man, it's really up in the air on which movie is going to be highest domestic grossing for this year.

 

I still think Infinity War will win but I think it will be BP that will be second


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I could see BP beating TLJ. It's a zeitgeist film.

 

I wonder if TLJ has enough legs to make it to 620 million. I hope it does. Saw black panther yesterday and this movie deserves the huge opening it’s going to get. The acting, story, and special effects were awesome. It’s like it was improved from galaxy of the guardian, Spider-Man and Thor.

 

it will never reach 600 million domestic and worlwide its impossible its only made 35 million in friday

 

I know bugger all about box office, but I can see BP having huge legs.

 

I doubt it. Not with this kind of hype. This is the new blockbuster paradigm. The goal is to get people into theaters as quickly as possible.

 

BP will get close to $500 mill & do over $1 billion ww ,

Interesting : RT 97% , Cinemascore A+ , IMDB 7.8 up from opening at 7.2 , RT audience score only 74%

 

I dunno. I agree in general, but this feels like a big deal. I could of course be wrong.

 

BP is a big deal. It is going to perform very well, perhaps even overperform expectations.
But beating TLJ at the domestic BO won't happen. It can't be underestimated how rare a 600+ million domestic gross is.

WW I have no idea.

 

Box Office Pro 4 day weekend estimate for Last Jedi: $755,000. 351 theaters.
Comparative-
Rogue One: 996,014

 

i live in a small country in the greater course of things, france, but here the movie seems successful but like any other blockbuster. Very different league fron star wars movies or stuff like GotG or Avengers. And our critics, pro and fans, dont seem to find the movie that great. So it doesnt mean it's gonna be the same in other countries but im starting to wonder if BP is mostly a US phenomenon...could be wrong of course

 

Black Panther: http://boards.theforce.net/threads/the-2018-box-office-blood-ocean.50047767/page-6

Jumanji: https://www.r eddit.com/r/movies/comments/7l6gel/official_discussion_jumanji_welcome_to_the_jungle/

TLJ: http://boards.theforce.net/threads/...-on-page-307-before-posting.50037181/page-439

 

If we take out Cameron's wonders, all movies that crossed 600M opened with 200M+. Granted, Avengers, Jurassic, TFA and TLJ had 3 day opening of 200M and Black Panther 4 day but that's close enough and the movie has several advantages:

a) slow months ahead with shoddy looking competition. Annihilation is getting great insider buzz but it's an arthouse sci fi that's counter-programming to a superhero blockbuster. Red Sparrow is R rated spy movie, also not a direct competition but counter-programming. Wrinkle in Time is a family movie currently tracking for 35M opening, so nothing major. Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim 2 look abysmal.

b) Black History Month for added awareness.

It's going to be interesting to follow.