ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

There is a difference based on pre-release expectations. If BP hits 500 that is a huge success based on estimates leading into release and over performing like it's doing OW. TLJ under performed. Big difference and why one wouldn't be disappointing and the other would.

 

That’s a fair point


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I dropped the 14 year old and a few of his friends off at our local multiplex last night to see BP. I saw something I haven't seen there in years: a line out the door that extended to the end of the block. The show was sold out of course. I haven't seen lines like that in forever. Not for TLJ, granted because maybe more TLJ viewers bought tickets online for opening weekend, but it still did a lot toward making BP look like a legit event film.

 

Its an average movie, i get the symbol of the movie is important but there is so many better movie with the same message ... like 12 years a salve or detroit

 

I'm not that into the Marvel movies so I definitely won't be paying theater dollars to watch it. I got Spider Man Homecoming off of netflix and didn't even bother finishing it. Don't even have the Thor movie in my queu.

 

Deadline has Black Panther estimates for 3-day at some $198 million with a 4-day weekend at $223 million. That is super, and remember Disney owns Marvel like the own Lucasfilm. So all of it stays in house. I’ll tell you, Disney no dummy. They knew what they were doing. Both the Star Wars and marvel movies have been colossal at the box office over the last 5 years.

 

It can pass TLJ if the multiplier is like the first Iron Man's or the Guardians of the Galaxy.

Black Panther gross with past Marvel multipliers
TA 3.01 = $578M
IM 3.23 = $620M
CA 2.72 = $522M
GOTG 3.53 = $678M
T 2.75 = $528M
SM:H 2.86 = $549M
DS 2.74 = $526M
AM 3.15 = $605M
TIH 2.43 = $467M

Marvel sequels usually have worse multipliers but this is a first installment. The worst Marvel sequel multiplier so far is 2.28 (CA:CW). With that BP does $438M.

 

15th biggest wordlwide opening, i hope it goes hight to show to hollywood that black actor can also bring success, but i hope it won't pass the billion.
It just doesn't deserve to.

 

I understand the sentiment even if I don’t agree with your assessment of the film. I think it’s important for mainstream films to feature prominent diversity, and this film will go a long way to hopefully initiating that.


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I don't understand all the acronyms but what's wrong if black panther passes the last Jedi? It is an event film.

And what's wrong with the last jedi's box office total? I never expected it to pass TFA or come close.

Maybe I didn't see it enough. I saw TFA ten times, TLJ only 7 times. Curse my metal body--I wasn't fast enough.

 

Nice numbers, average movie.
The Last Jedi is on a different level: huge numbers, awesome movie.

 

I’m terrible at predicting box office numbers, but I hope BP does pass $1 billion and it deserves to. I don’t know why it’s being compared to 12 Years a Slave or Detroit. Those are totally different genres. I’m not a huge Marvel/superhero fan, and I loved BP. It easily passed GotG as my favorite Marvel movie. It felt completely fresh and new despite being the 15th or whatever Marvel superhero movie.

The opening weekend is super impressive. It’s bigger than an average Marvel movie.

 

Wish I could see it I don’t think I’ve ever missed a Marvel film on opening weekend and usually I’m there preview night but I came down with the flu Thursday night and have been fighting a fever and just awfulness for the last few days. It has been horrible, so no BP for me and for the sake of my audiences around me lol until a bit from now. Grr.

I need to get in TLJ viewing #30 too. I’m less worried about making anyone else sick as long as I feel good with that because the TLJ theater should be empty pretty much but BP would be packed.

 

$192 million 3-day OW is mind blowing for BP. I'd say that $500 million will almost be guaranteed.

It's the same exact OW as AOU. But we have a few VERY different aspects:
(1) Astronomical WOM. It's Wonder Woman type WOM. That's not going to let up any time soon. AOU was a fun movie but didn't have the steam of great WOM.
(2) Little to now real competition for a LONG while. Ready Player One poses real competition but that's it. AOU had a whole summer of comp including JW. THREE months until IW.
(3) This is a first installment. It's not a sequel so the front-loadedness isn't as pronounced. It's fresh with a supposed fresh take.

The one thing that BP does NOT have is the summer mid-week potential. However, it's holiday week comes in its first week. If it pulls in $80 million next weekend it will pull in at LEAST $70 million during the week. That will put it around $340 million after next weekend. After its third weekend it will have made around or over $400 million. At the very worst, this movie will be the 5th biggest superhero film of all time and that's if it somehow doesn't get past TDRK or AOU. If it does hit $400 million in its 3rd weekend, those two are smoked!

 

Have no chance to watch Black Panther now since i am in Berlin at the Berlinale Festival and live in a different bubble, meaning not watching blockbusters from Hollywood. The programme is enormous and i get to see movies from countries all over the world, diversity is not a «thing» here at the festival - its given. That said. A lot of great movies, but with depressing stories, guess that somwhat reflects the world we live in at the moment. Not that there is optimism as well. Ironically, the first movie i saw on opening night was the new Wes Anderson film - Isle of Dogs, a Hollywood film, but at the same time, so much more. Had a freak moment at the premiere, as i tried to snatch a selfie with both Bill Murray and Jeff Goldblum, but i became to nervous! Damn it.

With Black Panther opening at over $ 190 mill and over $ 220 mill for the 4 day - i say this will get to $ 500 + for sure. I will even go as far as saying it will beat Infinity War ( domestic only) because the Avengers movie will not have the zeitgeist level of hype and will face massive competition in week 3 and 4 this May. Its a game changer for Marvel / Disney for sure - now they can focus on creating Marvel films that are cleary more stand alone defined. Not every movie will have the hype and acclaim as BP - but this opens up for many more opportunities - both Nolan and Coogler has now proven you can make superhero movies withouth doing the cliche route. Star Wars has also something to learn from this. And i think thats why Lucasfilm already has taken the first steps to walk away from the Skywalker Saga films. That said, Star Wars made a clearly statement long time ago, with a greater diversity in the films, well ahead of the trend we now see in Hollywood.

TLJ anedcdote: At one cinema here in Berlin, i did see a 50% sale of Star Wars merch at the ticket counter desk, so its soon time to close the show!

 

Days 64 to 67 domestic box office
TFA: 3-day 3,907,295, 4-day $4,204,173
President's Day Weekend 2017 & 2018
RO: 3-day $791,308, 4-day $996,014
TLJ (studio estimate): 3-day $609,000 (TFA -84.41%, RO -23.04%), 4-day $775,000 (TFA -81.57%, RO -22.19%)

 

@Othini

That is funny because *spoiler alert* BP had some clinches along with some other warts but overall it was very solid movie. B/B+ range is what I give it. Marvel in the past 18 months as released. GOTG 2, Spidey Homecoming, Thor 3 and now Black Panther. They are on an absolute roll with Thanos on deck. Can you say epic?

And Stallone just released a fan made teaser poster for Creed 2:

https://screenrant.com/sylvester-stallone-creed-2-poster/

This is shaping up to be a much better year overall for movies then 2017.......and I am still not really buying Solo though the trailer gave me a bit more hope then I had before.

 

TLJ estimated to be at 618M, the final number will be from 620M to 622M

 

If you look at those movies, you'll see why centralized planning is so good. Outside of being SH movies, none of them is repetitive visually and in the sense of scope. GOTG 2 is a space opera but it's different looking space than Asgard. And a different story. They did more planet hopping than in Thor which took bigger chunk of time on the junkyard planet. And in between space adventure GOTG 2 and Thor Ragnarok, they released Earth-bound high school dramedy Spiderman Homecoming. And after space adventure on Asgard, they released Black Panther set in a fantasy realm in Africa with signature African fashion, culture, rituals, etc. And then we'll get all out epic war in space and on Earth in Infinity War. And after that a smaller scale (literally and figuratively) Ant Man and Wasp.

Now lets compare it to SW. They released 3 movies with the fourth on the way and they all look the same. Same space battles, same ships, same weapons, same planets, same rebels same Empire, same same same. 4 out of 4 movies have male characters dressed like Han Solo cosplayers (leather jacket and all that jazz) - Finn, Poe, Cassian and Han Solo x 2 (young and old). 2 out of 4 movies have minimum 2 characters sporting the same Solo wannabe generic look (Real Solo, Poe and Finn in TFA and Finn and Poe in TLJ). 3 movies have Millenium Falcon. All of them have star destroyers. 2 have Death Star (yes, that bigger knock off is the same thing). Etc. I just don't get it. ESB didn't have a space battle right after ANH's nor AOTC had one after TPM. In fact, they tried something different. OTOH, TFA, RO and TLJ all had space battles, with RO one being so superior one has to wonder why they decided to build TLJ plot around constant space fighting that couldn't touch RO in spectacle and suspense. It's so redundant.

So my point is, I don't care that SW has currently made more money than several MCU movies combined. SW's running out of gas unless they start delivering some novelty while MCU ability to deliver novelty is why they reign the cinema for over a decade and won't slow down.

 

https://screenrant.com/black-panther-records/
This is amazing! Just amazing.

 

There is absolutely nothing wrong with TLJ's BO. It was a massive success and the biggest film of 2017.

The BP did as well OW as I expected. I found all the projections to be totally, absurdly low. It's incredible how out of touch a lot of the major entertainment sites and blogs were with how huge the anticipation was for this.

I haven't seen it yet. My wife did; opening night. She has NEVER ran out to see a film on opening night. She hasn't even seen 90% of Marvel's movies. She said now, she finally gets how I feel about a SW opening weekend.

BTW I passed my local neighborhood independent movie house. The line was down the block. They had a handwritten sign saying the 3:00 BP was sold out.

 

Every marvel movie have the same story in a different universe, Every movie follow the same plan with a different background.
SW is the opposite, The background is the same cause its star wars (we can say the same about every SW movie) but the story is always new and you don't know how it will end. This is why SW movies are superior, Marvel is boring, in 18 movie there had been no major death, no emotion, it always end with the good guys winning after a 1st defeat vs the bad guys. Ths score for marvel's is meh and the CGI are ok, but in comprison with SW really bad
Why are you here if you are a marvel fan go to a marvel fan forum. I hate marvel so i don't go in their forum to say their movie is bad

 

Yet Marvel keeps going and their fans are much happier with what Marvel gives them than Star wars fans are with what Nu Star Wars is offering. They may have repetitive stories but SW isn't exactly a novelty garden in that department either. There's a chosen one from the desert planet. There's Empire and there are Rebels. Rebels always win in the end. At least PT was different except for the Chosen one from the desert planet. But Nu Wars is not offering even a different story.

 

Marvel movie are always the same fan can't be disappointed. TLJ tried different thing (how can you said the opposite???) so some fan didn't like it, but its better this way, when i was younger i was more a marvel fan, now really dislike them and i love SW.
TLJ is different than TFA and RO is a different movie.
TFA was very similar to ANH i have to admit that. IF SW movies were always the same then fan would be happy too, but SW would be only fogettable movie like the marvel's one

 

Poe never looked or dressed like Han in TFA.

But I agree with you on some points.

Solo will be the 4th Star Wars movie in a row with a generic young, slim, British, brunette, Caucasian woman as the female lead. And that's not counting Leia and Padme (minus the British)