ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

You know, if Jumanji makes it to a billion dollars, it will be the first time two movies in December have done this feat.
There is no shame with Jumanji nor Black panther doing well at the box office. TLJ did very good and ...yeah there were those that didn't like it that much, and others that would rather see it burn, but overall its a successful movie and if we are lucky might be able to squeak to $620 domestically (hoping it gets there) and total around $1.330 billion. I mean its possible. Okay those numbers absolutely nothing but, they get us closer to the Age of Ultron worldwide gross, and practically....$1.30 billion looks way better than $1.28.1 billion.

 

Honestly the fact that BP beat TFA's first Monday is more impressive to me than any TLJ comparisons. Yes I know TFA's Monday wasn't a holiday but TFA was an absolute force of nature at the box office and it's not like President's Day is THAT big a holiday. Given that MCU movies tend to be very frontloaded, and BP won't benefit from summer or holiday weekdays (e.g. the Christmas-New Years run), I'm still 50/50 on whether it will make it past $600m. I'm definitely rooting for it to get there though.

 

Does Jumanji have around a 100 mil left in the tank? It's only got 2 weekends left before it starts streaming on Amazon and Itunes.

 

TFA's first Monday may as well have been a holiday. And President's Day isn't really much of a holiday at all for most. We had school for example and usually do.

 

Lets see how it compares to TFA on Tuesday or Wednesday then

 

BP was very good. Probably tops from the MCU for me.

Pretty great to get my new favorite SW movie and my new favorite MCU movie within 10 weeks of each other.

Should make a boatload of money. Will be interesting to follow.

TLJ is coming right up on 1.33B worldwide. Probably about $2.5M left domestic, not sure how many dollars are still available OS.

 

Went to see Black Panther today, theatre was pretty full for 1pm on a Tuesday. I definitely think this film will hit 600m.

 

If by any chance TLJ comes within 1M from Avengers, Disney has to extend TLJ longer. For the LOLZ.

PS: Blu Ray is looking sweet. Today LFL released a "trailer" for the Blu Ray with new official movie footage we can now use.

 

TLJ is gaining back its full screen at a local theater this Friday after playing a half-screen the last two weeks. Not sure how this makes any sense, but awesome! I will take it!

 

BP looks to be at 21.5m for Tuesday, ninth biggest ever, but much of what is ahead either opened on that day or had some level of holidays. It's bigger than TLJ's first Tuesday (but not the second one) but behind JW and Finding Dory, which didn't have a holiday either. TFA is now starting to pull away again.

If this number holds, BP should be around 3m ahead of TLJ, 6m ahead of JW and around 20m ahead of The Avengers. I guess JW and TA will be better comparables for the dailies over the next few days, as the nature of the holidays mean that TLJ's numbers are out of whack compared to a regular schedule.

 

Finding Dory and Jurassic Workd were both released during Summmer vacation.

If you're comparing Mondays and Tuesdays, I'd take that into consideration.

 

It still blows me away that the first CA and Thor movies made $176 and $181 million respectively. Their adjusted grosses would be around $200-$205 million today. They were hardly considered flops or bombs or anything of the sort. They were well liked and considered to have done well. In perspective, BP is out of this world. Whodathunkit? It will end up making quite a bit more than both of the CA and Thor adjusted grosses COMBINED. It will make quite a bit more than CA and Thor sequels combined. This is just insane!

For some reason I thought that Ready Player One was coming out earlier than March 29. That's still a long way to go for BP's dominance to wane.

 

Marvel has come a long way. BP wouldn't have made this kind of money back when CA and Thor came out cause Coogler and half of actors responsible for the success were just starting/were unknown and wouldn't be hired. Also, timing. BP is this big because it captured the zeitgeist (aside perfect match of director/actors). The awareness that such movie is needed and its relevance grew over the years. Back in CA/Thor time, it would have been just another blockbuster not one of movie events of the decade. Maybe. We'll never know so no point wasting time on "what if". It's here to stay like Wonder Woman.

 

Apart from what has been mentioned above, you cannot ignore the timing of the movies. Thor and Captain America were among the first MCU movies released. Before that only came two Iron Man and one Hulk movie. The true breakthrough into elite status only came with The Avengers the year after, which boosted everything that came afterwards. There is quite a bit of difference between the early stages and the established MCU that has delivered one crowd-pleaser after another.

Put Black Panther into the early MCU-era, which also drastically lessens the effect of the circumstances, and you probably wouldn't have gotten a different result than what the other movies made back then.

 

Yeah, The Avengers was turning point after which MCU was able to turn F-list properties such as GOTG and Ant Man into boxoffice hits. All thanks to careful planning. DCEU made a mistake of trying to copy MCU model overnight.

 

It will be interesting next year with Captain Marvel because Marvel already has Black Widow so the female hero thing is not new to them.

 

I don't expect Captain Marvel to become a phenom that WW was either.

 

Good points. Same can be said about the PT and ST. They both lived largely off the success and cultural impact of the OT and the gaps of generations between film content.

 

I just checked. It's randomly popping back up this weekend in 2 theaters that already pulled it.

 

Same, and into next week too.

 

Thats true. Even Ant Man would have been close to a bomb with its domestic gross. But it was saved largely by being well received and its international take. I consider $ 200 mill to be the absolute floor for a blockbuster these days. With the rising budget and marketing costs, if you land under that number domestic, you are flopping. But Marvel has been doing great with building its universe and giving it time and patience to develope. With amazing marketing set up from Disney, thats been well handled overall. The question about «where do they go now?» has been largely answered by the success of Black Panther. They can now move on with even more confidence that these things could work.

I am more worried about Ready Player One. There is little hype around it now. The trailers look a bit off to me. Almost like a arty farty blockbuster with lots of CGI that is cool but also leaves me a bit cold. Not sure its going to work.
Not a flop, but likely not a big hit for Spielberg. Like he needs one...and dear god, we have another Indiana Jones film coming up! And he is doing West Side Story as well. Hmm. Not sure if that one needs a remake though.

Looking at other movies that will struggle this year. Pacific Rim 2 looks like it will have a rough time at the domestic box office. Alita Battle Angel will struggle as well, and have been pushed to Christmas for some odd reason.
Aquaman will need good reviews and good buzz to survive.

 

Maybe they want to have Oscar-nominated films online during and after the awards.

Since TLJ has 4 nominations, it would be interesting to help it get closer to Avengers.

 

@Othini RPO looks like a video game. Well, it is a video game but the movie looks like one.

 

I enjoyed RPO based on the book, but the trailer really killed any excitement I had for the film. For some reason, the trailer focused on a CGI-filled car chase. I don't even remember that in the book. I'm sure it's there, but it's not what I was excited to see. The book is basically a mystery with endless 80s and 90s pop culture fan services. Random car chase is not the appeal of it. I don't quite understand their approach to the marketing.