ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Its a good move yes. I remember a certain - now banned poster - in the TFA b.o thread suggesting TFA being re - released about a year after the original release with exclusive deleted scenes - just to make enough money to drag TFA over a billion dollars domestic. That would have been....a bad move. In 20 years maybe.

 

The question regarding Marvel is how much freshly squeezed juice does it have left before it's drained? BP can produce successful sequels. Not sure about how Captain Marvel will do. The first wave of Avengers is drying up. Do they have any new products to offer after Captain Marvel?

With SW at least you can actually create new stories going WAY back or WAY ahead or doing spinoffs that are not related. With Marvel, the popularity IS based on the characters while SW can create new ones.

 

I don’t know, marvel has like 60 years worth of comic book material and characters to pull from

 

BP increased its domestic box office lead over TLJ at 5 days out to $1.2 million. It has to fall behind TLJ in the second midweek, at least for a bit, due to TLJ's holiday advantage.

 

But do they have 60 years worth of characters?

 

They don't really need to, they can return to existing ones after a bit of a break.

Spiderman is on its third incarnation of this century, and while those weren't part for the MCU for the most part, it shows that it is possible. Another example would be Batman, which is DC, but has been through a whole lot of different actors over the last few decades.


BP has dropped a bit from estimates, the final number for Tuesday is 20.86m. Still around 600k ahead of TLJ, but it has dropped behind The Dark Knight by about 10k, making it "only" the 10th best Tuesday.

 

yeah, it's hard to compare in advance because TFA and TLJ are entering the holiday portion of their run, while BP will have March break later in its run and then Easter.

 

Remember TLJ dropped 67.5% in its first weekend for $72M. If BP drops 55% for example, its weekend will be $91M.

 

91M would be really great. It'll likely hold better.

 

Not sure if its a good time for Annihilation to open this weekend. Likely to be swallowed by BP. It has very good reviews though. And Natalie Portman is in it. And Oscar Isaac.

 

It won't matter, it's on Netflix in 17 days anyways.

 

BP expected to do $104-$109 in 2nd weekend. Jurassic World current 2nd best ever at $106.5

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-p...second-weekend-box-office-preview-1202297438/

 

Good for Black Panther! It's a great movie. I really hope to see it again soon.

 

Ok. I did not notice that, but you are correct. Likely this will be a case to study. Netflix has money. Loads, so it wont matter right. This will be something similar to what they did with Okija then.

 

The three day for BP's weekend was $202M so 55% down off of that would be $91M. Trying to work the upcoming three day weekend off of the previous four day weekend is an odd thing to do.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4372&p=.htm

This movie is projected to make between $567 to $631 million domestically. It is already second on the 5 day total and can expect the same for the 6th day. TLJ is headed towards $619 domestically, don't know how much more it can squeeze out. At $65,000 Tuesday thru Thursday will put it at maybe $195,000 and the weekend cume I don't know may $240,000?

 

TLJ probably has at least $2M left. RO made $3.1M after week 10.

 

I'm erring on the conservative side with this one. We still have no idea how front loaded BP is. Anecdotally I know a number of people who rushed out to see it opening weekend, some of whom aren't even the OW types.

I'm not assuming long legs or strong multipliers with this. I'd really hate to see people start over inflating the BO expectations, then try and create a narrative that it under performed if it doesn't perform like other properties that opened at 200 plus million.

And, for a few reasons, we still have no clue how this will perform in certain markets outside the US.

 

Nice! Now just to feel well enough tomorrow to go see TLJ again. Haven’t left the house since I got back Friday from Vegas with this flu. I am feeling a lot better but still not 100%. I think it would be good for me to go see Last Jedi tomorrow night though.

 

I wouldn't put any value on deadline or BOM projections, as they have very little to do with what is actually happening. The amount of times these projections have been right for big movies is very very small. They are good at reporting numbers they get, but not so much at looking at upcoming weekends. Deadline is notorious for its "deadline-math", where the drop percentages don't fit the numbers they give or their weekend-multipliers from Friday numbers are just completely absurd.

 

Struggling to find a day to see it. Will be going to Disneyworld on March 9 and have LOTS to do until then. Really want to see it soon!

My impression is that what pushes BP out in front of the rest (besides the demographic) is world building, world building, and more world building. Immediately, the trailers delivered on that. Culturally and visually it seems different and more interesting.

Should be in the top 10 all time domestic by its 4th weekend, top 20 by its third.

 

14.5 million wenesday, now behind TLJ

 

That's actually behind Rogue One's first Wednesday as well, but the circumstances are obviously different, as TLJ and Rogue One got closer to the holidays and more people were off from school while BP has no such effect. Well, apparently some schools are off at the east coast, but the effect is obviously not quite the same.

It's still about 1m ahead of The Avengers' Wednesday, and that one managed to break 100m on the second weekend, so the pace is just fine
Kind of hard to say where this movie is heading though. Someone on BOT has a running comparison against Deadpool, as in, how much ahead of it the movie is running. This number now would put BP below 600m for the first time, as little as that actually means.

The day puts the total back behind TLJ and JW as well, though not by much. The weekend should keep it in the same area as JW, quite a bit ahead of TLJ, before TLJ's second set of weekdays turn the table again.

 

We will see how it will do this week end, but s far i was right everyone rushed this movie and this is falling.
Biggest monday of all time (President day's)
10th biggest tuesday of all time
43rd bigest wenesday
We will see how it does this week end, maybe its just cause of the period and it will always have average week days and huge week end.
So far Deadpool is holding better and had 57% decrease for 2nd week end. So i see 60% deacrease for BP wich give 80 million second week end . This is still 5th of all time but just in front of Age of ultron.

 

That's not really a proper comparison.
Monday was inflated due to being a holiday, and had an overflow from Sunday. Tuesday didn't have the holiday effect, and it wasn't opening day either, nor did it have the advantge of summer days, which explains why it didn't remain at the top. Though if you remove all movies that had that sort of boost, it is actually the biggest day again. And Wednesday's record lists sees not only saw a ton of opening days (compared to basically non on Monday and only a selected few on Tuesday) but also a ton of holiday effects. Do the same thing as for Tuesday, and you are left with no better days again. Granted, that takes out a lot of movies, and quite a few of those could have delivered a better Wednesday anyway, but it shows that what the movie is doing is still exceptionally strong. It is delivering better weekdays than The Avengers!

I'm not exactly sure where you see Deadpool holding better either. They are pretty similar.
Deadpool went down 54% on Monday (dropping from Valentine's Day), 42% on Tuesday, 26% on Wednesday and 7% on Thursday. Black Panther went down 33% on Monday, which was a much better drop caused by not dropping from Valentine's Day, then dropped 48% on Tuesday, which is a bit bigger, but is the direct consequence of Monday being inflated, and is now dropping 30% on Wednesday. The whole thing is just tough to directly compare due to the circumstances being different. If you put that aside and compare the Wednesday to the Saturday, BP actually holds slightly better (21 to 20%) than Deadpool.

I see very little chance of an 80m weekend happening. Common increases for Friday during this time of the year is 100%+. Deadpool actually was on the lower end of that range with "just" +102%, followed by a 50% bump on Saturday. Lets assume that BP dropps another 10% tomorrow, that would mean about 13m for Thursday. A 100% boost would put it at 26m for Friday, 50% increase on Saturday would mean 39m, followed by dropping by one third being down to 26m again. That's 90m+. And while there is a chance it might get lesser increases, historic precedent would rather suggest the opposite, thus a chance for even more.